- This topic has 9 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
The first race on tomorrow’s card looks intriguing to me. Inglis Drever obviously deserves to be a warm favourite, however he’s yet to triumph in 3 attempts at this meeting and surely won’t be suited by the drying ground.
Blazing Bailey is another who’s best form has been on softer surfaces. Lough Derg has had a very hard season and may be at the end of his tether. Therefore, I think Kicks for Free is the ‘value’ bet in this race. Relatively unexposed, with a terrific second in the Coral Cup under a welter-burden. The step up to 3 miles looks as if it will suit. Has come back from a wind operation in fantastic form, I think he’ll go very close tomorrow.
On paper, Inglis Drever looks a good thing – but I think he could be vulnerable tomorrow – especially after his hard race at Cheltenham.
I could be wrong and he could very well hack up, but for that reason alone, I will not be backing the horse this time round.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Too man tight turns at Aintree for the drever – Tracks like Newbury and Cheltenham suit as he can get up a head of steam which doesn;t seem to happen at Aintree.
I’ve had my fingers burned on him at this meeting before so as much as I love the horse i’d have to take him on.
Inglis Drever must be a lay tomorrow Aintree doesn’t suit him at all.
Its a difficult race to call Blazing Bailey is capable but he’s no good thing the same could be said of Lough Derg.
The opening posters point regarding Kicks For Free is a good one, if he improves for a step up in trip he could run a big race and Chief Dan George has run his best ever race at Aintree and can’t easily be discounted IMO.
In short, I haven’t a clue lol.
Don’t think it’s the track doesn’t suit, as I think ID is so far clear this shouldn’t matter. However, he really needs long gaps between his races and this always make him vulnerable at Aintree. Would rather have seen him go to Punchestown. Definate lay tomorrow, and if he proves me wrong I will love him all the same!
Looked at this one lunchtime, definitely think Inglis is opposable this time out, took him on with Kasbah last time and was not far from beaten on his fav track. Think the OP hit the nail on the head with Kicks as the value bet will definitely be backing him EW if his price is in double figures, may also take a small chance on Blazing Bailey. Can’t really see anything past these three in the frame imo.
Kicks for Free is a very hard horse to work out having won well on a tight track like Kempton and won 3 or 4 times at 2miles.
He would have probably won at Cheltenham but for the absolutely brilliant ride Davy Russell gave the winner.
He certainly looked that day like he will get this trip but there’s never any guarantees.
I would disagree the ground will be in has favour against Blazing Baily who should be perfectly happy on it.
Lough Derg appears for the 9th time this season and has had some real tough races this year. Typical Pipe greed the last time he ran at Aintree you would have need a search party to find him. This is not a course where you can drop yourself out and come back again. No doubt he’ll run his heart out but if he were mines he wouldn’t even be there. It would be great to see him run well but I just can’t see it.
Inglis Drever has, as you say, only one real danger and no doubt he will start a warm second choice in the betting.
I hope he’s warm enough to make Inglis Drever evens as I have never backed him in my life………a few bookies will be on to their banks looking for loans if they do and he wins
As much as PN’s horse achieved at Cheltenham it’s a million miles short of what Inglis Drever has achieved so unlesss he’s another Master Minded or Neptune Collonges who has improved out of all recognition he should have no chance of winning.
I really like Ballyfitz who I think may be a star of the future. It’s not got the look of a great race and if Inglis is odds on he might be worth an EW bet around 25/1.
PS This is probably the worst opposition he has faced in a long time he’ll be fine going round bends……..Are you lot hoping the bookies are reading this forum and will offer evens so you can get your summer holiday money in?
I would usually lay Inglis Drever in these circumstances but: he’s better this season (unbeaten so far, and seems to be winning with more authority and ‘class’ than ever before) and, as FOF has pointed out, the previous renewals of this race were more competitive (there isn’t a horse as good as Mighty Man to take him on with). I don’t think he’s worth laying at 5/4.
Oh, and his record at Aintree isn’t that bad at all. He won a novice hurdle there on the bridle, was a close 4th in a novice hurdle over 2m4f, was a 1/4l 2nd to Al Eile in the Aintree Hurdle, and then disappointed last year. So that’s a win, two fine runs over an inadequate trip, and one disappointment. Overall he isn’t necessarily unsuited to the course.
Agree with you about Kicks For Free. Comes into the race fresher than most, seems as though his breathing/bleeding problems are behind him and would have won the Coral Cup if his rider hadn’t left him with far too much to do.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.