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im a simon fan myself, but have a couple of others on my shortlist who are all irish horses
vf
have you any idea which Irish horses are likely to go to Aintree – I still keep looking at Royal County Star, Newbay Prop and Bailey Breeze. Thanks for putting up the priginal list of runners, by the way, I still keep referring back to it.
the first forfeit satge is on march 4th so should know abit more then i will post any updates on a new national update thread on the drop outs for you
vf
Hedgehunter ran a very good race today to finish second in the bobby jo chase and subsequently beat grand national favorite snowy morning, this is the best piece of form he’s produced in recent years could this be a return for one of the best national horses for a few years. He’s weighted out of a win but could represent an e/w bet, shame on betfred for going 16-1.
sure was Gingertipster i was really pleased with his run i text a family member to let them know i wa spleased with his run
he ran really well he may have done better if it had rained but he did have a good prephedgehunter also ran a good prep i heard he beat national favourite snowy morning who was somewhat disappointing in 3rd, he’d be good for each way punters
vf
The odds are that the race will be run on goodish ground, given the forecast and today’s report from the course. I can see Bewley’s Berry shortening up in the coming days….
King John’s Castle seems to be the subject of a big gamble at the moment solid blue line all the way through on oddschecker from 40’s into 20’s. Have I missed something here just can’t see anything solid that would suggest this horse is a potential National winner.
Probably a tipping line. Taking stamina very much on trust there- what does Kendal Cavalier have to say about him staying, I wonder?
I was going to back it, but was skint. now i’ve been paid its gone down in price.
GRR!!
I’ve already held my hands up with regards to King John’s Castle from a pedigree perspective. Absolutely no idea about the dam or damsire at all. The sire is good and is a potential National winning sire of that I have no doubt. Flemensfirth is by Alleged as was Montelimar (Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass’ sire) so no worries on that score.
I think I put out a plea for help on another thread regarding the pedigree but nothing as of yet. You would have to say that he hasn’t won over 2m 3f yet which has to be a big negative. The form of his run behind Mister Top Notch looks great now and Black Apalachi was behind him that day but had just come from a tough race two and half weeks earlier and probably left something behind and I think I’d rather be on Black Apalachi at 66’s & 50’s than KJC at 16’s and 20’s.
What about Baily Breeze- might be of interest now that his trainer’s just won the Irish version with a similar horse?
Just found your post on another thread that Baily’s is related to Topsham Bay……the plot thickens!
Have now found and updated my study in to top weights, both the top weight and those carrying 11 stones and above.
From 1985 to 2007 (22 Nationals).
Of the 853 runners:
Only 117 (13.7%) carried 11 stones or more.
736 (86.3%) carried less than 11 stones.Of the 88 horses who finished in the first 4:
16 carried 11 stones or more.
72 carried less than 11 stones.
So 18.2% of those placed in the first 4 carried 11 stones or more and 81.8% carried less than 11 stones.
This means 13.7% of those carrying 11 stones or more were in the first 4 (16 Divided by 117).
9.8% of those carrying less than 11 stones were in the first 4 (72 Divided by 736).Of the winners:
2 carried 11 stones or more. 20 carried less than 11 stones.
9.1% of winners carried 11 stones or more.
90.9% of winners carried less than 11 stones.
1.7% of those carrying 11 stones or more won the race (2 Divided by 117).
2.7% of those carrying less than 11 stones won the race (20 Divided by 736).In 1997 only 1 horse Master Oats carried 11 stones or more.
3 times only 2 carried 11 stones or more.
4 times only 3, 4 times 4.
On 11 occasions less than 10% of the field carried 11 stones or more.On 4 occasions there was an automatic top weight from Czechoslavakia etc. at 100/1 or more.
A 1 point each way bet on all well fancied top weights (those at an SP of under 12/1) would have shown a 2.5 point profit.Of the last 119 horses to have taken part. If just 7 particular horses did not run, then 3 top weights would have won in the last 4 Nationals.
In 2004 take out the first three home Amberleigh House, Clan Royal and Lord Atterbury, plus Le Coudray (top weight). Monty’s Pass would have won as top weight.
In 2005 take out Hedgehunter and Le Coudray. Royal Auclair would have won under top weight.
In 2006 take out Numbersixvalverdie and Hedgehunter would’ve won again as top weight.So:
In the last 22 years those carrying less than 11 stones have only a 1% better record of winning the National than those carrying 11 stones or more.
But those carrying less than 11 stones have almost 4% worse record at finishing in the first 4, than those carrying 11 stones or more.
Those top weights with a good chance on form actually have a decent record in the National.My conclusion is that it is probably a coincidence a top weight has not won the National since Red Rum.
The record of those carrying 11 stones or more being placed, suggests it is mere coincidence they have not won the race more times. Although one reason could be the best horses do not take part until exposed, so are easier for the handicapper to judge. Capable of being placed but not winning. Horses like Halcon Genelardais and Miko De Bauchene are not allowed to take part until later on in their careers. Unexposed horses higher up the weights are worth considering just as much as those lower down.Ginge
Value Is EverythingGinge,
You’re stats don’t come as a major surprise, but they aren’t beyond justification. You say that it is coincedence that heavier weighted horses are placed instead of winning, whereas I’d disagree. In the 2006 & 2002 renewals, Hedgehunter and What’s Up Boys respectively showed precisely the difference between placing and winning under a big weight. Both travelled to the last more strongly than their more lightly-burdened rivals, but on both occasions that failed to count for anything up what must be effectively the toughest run-in in horseracing.
Friggo,
What’s Up Boys may have been going better at the last, but he was always a horse who travelled better in his races than Bindaree, who was more of an out and out stayer than Hobbs charge. Also, his defeat may have been more to do with being in front too soon. What’s Up Boys was known to be best held up for a late run and idled when in front.
I had backed Hedgehunter in 06, and always thought Numbersixvalverdie was going eqully as well.
I do see your point Friggo. Weight can of course tell on the run in, but take Bindaree and Numbersixvalverdie out and they still came up the run in better than all the others.
Not saying those carrying more weight have a better chance than those lower down, just they should be judged on their merits and not dissmissed soley because of the weight they carry.
Ginge
Value Is Everything
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