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I think the National is one of the strongest trends races in the calendar and it’s one I’ve had great sucess in. I’m not a slave to any one stat, but Mr Pointment will be bucking 2 stong ones if carrying 11-8 after only 5 chase starts to win (Ok he may run once more, but 6 would still be exceptional.) The last 10 winners were all in double figures. Dismiss me as a crank if you will but I’d like two’s on the winner has had at least 10 chase starts and carries 11-4 or less in April. These stats are not accidental, they follow logic- a horse needs experience of the hustle of a big field to win the National. Mr P and Snowy are the first ones off my list.
I think Fist some stats can help find the winner / the horse value to win, but not to totally dismiss a horse due to one stat.
But some stats are totally misleading, like this one.
Ginge
Like what one Ginge?
I cheated anyway but no one noticed. I eliminated all horses over 20/1 but that stat doesn’t apply to AP it applies to starting price and the bookies will cram as many horses as they can into that bracket on the day.
To me there’s a distinct lack of class below McKelvey, they look as moderate a bunch as I have ever seen apart from a couple.
I have to disagree with Carvills on this one and have a feeling this year the top horses could be the ones to dominate. Weight is a great leveler but it may not come into play so much this year as you also need a very good horse to win the national and very sedom is the winner a moderate animal.
I’m Sticking with Mr. Pointment and Sir Rembrant despite what the stats say…..not much choice now
I do fear Snowy Morning most he’s a lovely horse. I am not a fan of Cloudy Lane at all who seems to be the one the punters are going for but they would be as well tearing up their betting slips now IMO I just can’t see him getting to blows with the front two in the betting.it’s interesting that NTD is trying to tempt Carl Llewellyn out of retirement to ride one of his in the National…..I agree with Mr. Fist in that we ignore Sir Rembrandt at our peril – rejuvenated class acts have a good record in the race, I think…
Prior to Hedgehunter, the win ratio of horses carrying top weight was dismal
Given that there are something like 40 runners, it should on average be one win every 40 years perhaps?
Also, top weight has sometimes been carried (if i recall rightly) by overseas horses without an official rating. Im thinking of the czech runners.
i think too much is made of it and theres every chance that the same record applies to the 10th highest weight…say
would simply follow stats put a line through most of the horses and come out with a few that I think fit the last decades trends correctly. It would be my opinion that anyone who wasted too much time studying a 40 horse race that is guaranteed to be full of unpredictable events who is in fact the mug. A 40 horse race could waste 6 hours + of your life to study correctly and your selection may well fall at the first
the national is one of my most succesful races and i couldnt agree with the above Zoso… Trends are neither here nor there i feel. My winners (and most winners) have had very different profiles. But its still an odd market with many horses way too short in the betting for all the wrong reasons i often feel (sentiment often being one of them)
Aintree often seems to have extremes of going and for me that has often been the most significant (but often overlooked) factor
Sir Rembradt is very well handicapped on his best form. But if you look at its runs recently, he jumps poorly when headed. So will probably have to make all to win. With similar types like Naunton Brook in the field, that is going to be very difficult. Though a prominent position is often an advantage.
Not one for me even at 50’s.
The stats that do come in to my working out are trainers records for the last two weeks (is he in form). Also sometimes their record in that particular month in previous years. Trainers first time and second time out strike rates, and other SR’s too.
Stallion stats, whether the horse is bred to get the trip. You would not want a low stamina index for the sire or sire of the dam (if the horse is not proven at the trip) in the Grand National.
I do not look for trends as such because there is often another reason for them. e.g. the 11st plus brigade here being mostly exposed sorts, so the ones unexposed are still worth consideration.Value Is Everything
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Just my opinion, but Sir Rembrandt wouldn’t win the National if he set off now.
The horse has been gifted one soft race in the past 2 years, and has otherwise run like the tired, slow old boat that he is.
I’d say he’d be a lot shorter price to pull up than to even complete the course.Aintree often seems to have extremes of going and for me that has often been the most significant (but often overlooked) factor
On the contrary, the ground is usually good. Since Mr Frisk won on the firm in 1990 (which will no longer be allowed due to the watering system) only 3 Nationals have been run on very soft or heavy ground, Minnehoma’s, Red Marauder’s and Earth Summit’s.
One horse in 50 years has carried more than 11 stone 5 to win the race and that was Red Rum. Sure I read that statistic in The Times this week, please correct me if I’m wrong. On that statistic alone, you can rule out Mr Pointment.
Im very much a Slim Pickings fan and he’s my selection at this stage, although I wouldn’t want the weights to rise much more.
I find L’Ami quite interesting too. 10 stone 12, on his back, substantially less than the 11 stone 8 which he carried last year and went well for a long way in the race. This is a horse that ran Kauto Star to a neck a year ago. If AP has the choice, it would be interesting whether he chooses L’Ami or Butler’s Cabin.
and i backed three out of those four
Fair point…maybe i should have checked back a bit
and i backed three out of those four
I only managed 2 clivex
I take it Red Marauder was your odd one out It was! and i backed the second that day (forget the name) which looked all the winner a couple out i recall
I couldnt consider Lami or Sir rembrandt. I just dont see it as a race for those on the downgrade. Simply racing with a degree of enthusiasm is essential
I’m not sure L’Ami is entirely on the downgrade. Yes his recent runs haven’t been particularly eyecatching, but now he’s down to a realistic mark. I think Doumen’s eyed this race and campaigned him accordingly, running him with top weight in competitive handicaps. 66/1 for me is ‘value’. A year tomorrow he nearly beat Kauto Star, not sure he’s regressed that much in the space of a year.
Anzum,
True at that price it might be worth taking the chance. 74/1 on Betfair.I myself have now had my fourth bet, Parsons Legacy 36/1. Scottish National form looks good. Hobbs main hope, Stays very well yet has the pace for 3m. Goes well on good ground / spring. Jumps o.k.
Value Is EverythingAgree with Anzum.
Don’t think the handicapper has been very nice to L’Ami in recent times, seems to have gone up in the weights an awful lot.
Ran well last year in the Grand National but was carrying a very big weight around there.
With thanks to Andy Mount, Parson’s Legacy is someting like 0-18 in big fields (haven’t got his book with me at the mo)
L’Ami looked like a non-stayer in the race last year.
I do fear Snowy Morning most he’s a lovely horse. I am not a fan of Cloudy Lane at all who seems to be the one the punters are going for but they would be as well tearing up their betting slips now IMO I just can’t see him getting to blows with the front two in the betting.
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