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i’ve decided to steam in on kingscliffe at 9.2 win and 3.2 place. Think he’s been round Haydock three times which i reckon will be important today.
I think haydock is one of those courses that particular horses do well at – there was another king….. something that used to win races regularly round here – can someone remind me?
He’s fit and well with two reasonable topspeed figures this year – 140+. I’ve also got a little on ollie magern
How can he be double the price of beef or salmon
monty – top notch work – can you throw in any ground considerations on those stats – there seems to be a debate out?
sorry, just had dinner with some guests – interesting we can rule out the rail position – i know there’s been some speed figures debates in the past then, but how can NM rate it highest ever against anything else – surely it’s quite simple – he’s taking account of something that other speed ratings are not – and is that something important.
I’m new – and if i’m going over old ground – and conclusion is RP topspeed is good enough – just tell me so and i’ll shut up
i’m interested to know where you got this clivex?
my understanding is that nm’s figures are more sophisticated than the racing post and that’s the whole point isn’t it? he takes account of gale winds blowing behind them etc…but interestingly he can’t take full account of the rails being moved – which for me puts a question mark about the state of the ground that day. There was a big worry about really soft – i wouls question was it really soft as that is probably the all-important factor in nick’s rating
only just joined yesterday and realised i started a thread – wanting a debate – on main area – will bo on lays and plays in future – thanks for reminding
Had equal stakes at 23.0 and 6.0 for win and place. Ran a blinder – went 15 lengths clear, took a breather then kicked again jumping well throughout. The favourite looked good though. Shame it rained so much as was more in favour of favourite. thanks for putting me onto it through your ratings – thought it was really good value
yeah i got excited. jockey gave it a great chance giving it a breather, but that favourite looked classy. might have been different had not so much rain fallen??
got a 2 to 1 return on my stake, so something to play with tomorrow!
i’m actually a flat man too, and only found the forum around arc time and found it really informative.
My approach to jumping is to back big priced horses and be consistent about it, but only bet once/twice a week as opposed to every day on the flat. I’m learning too about the "science of the jumps".
Think your point about jockey "howie ….." is a good one.
don’t worry only having 2 quid saver on sir laughalot!
Thanks for welcome and reply. When you say going skint opposing things like the favourite in this instance, i have an automatic gut feeling to strongly disagree. If you were to bet on all odds on first time out horses associated with the trainers you mention over the years to a level stake, you’d surely lose!?
Didn’t know about softening ground. i’ll have a saver on your fiver fun bet for a laugh(able)
interesting to mention speed figures. From the RP – don’t think any of these put up regular top class speed figures. L’ami has done a good one in the whitbread against innox, beef or salmon’s best is against kingscliff in this race last year, kingscliff has one or two other good ones. kato stars best in defeat against monkerhostin. ollie magern has 3 or 4 in the 150+ category which is up to winning this race – think you can also make a small case that he might be best at this time of year (oct/nov) – 4 of his 5 best speed figures around this time over last 2 years
thanks for welcome. Yes a big if – but given the ifs about the others, just saying there’s a bit of value really – small money has been matched at 50 on exhanges
