November 17, 2006 at 14:24 #455
Does anyone else out there think the 3.55 at ascot is worth getting involved in today.
There’s an odds on favourite that hasn’t been out for over 200 days (henderson/mccoy), some other average horses one of which is Fait le jo jo. It’s priced up as 7 to 1 in the RP but i’ve taken 23.0 win and 6.0 place on exchanges (only small money)
2 miles on good ground or better is ideal for this horse. It’s had a pipe opener this year (albeit 80 days ago) – speed figure was poor, but given first time out, softish ground and 21 furlongs. easily excusable. It’s consistency last year as far as topspeed figures go is commendable.
Be interested in any supporting views or indeed if anyone has a strong case for any of the other runnersNovember 17, 2006 at 14:51 #31272
Hi Mr Batt and welcome.
The way I read jump racing, you can go badly skint opposing this type of horse or indeed, anything trained by Henderson, Hobbs or Nicholls in this circumstance.
Unless they change the jockey, then it will be Howie Ephgraves first ride around Ascot and Fait le Jojo has to carry 11-12 in softening ground. 6lb higher than last winning rating, ( a year ago); 22/1 is about right.
If I was having a comedy fiver, I’d back Sir Laughalot getting 26lbs from the topweight. But best of luck with your bet.:cool:November 17, 2006 at 14:59 #31273
Thanks for welcome and reply. When you say going skint opposing things like the favourite in this instance, i have an automatic gut feeling to strongly disagree. If you were to bet on all odds on first time out horses associated with the trainers you mention over the years to a level stake, you’d surely lose!?
Didn’t know about softening ground. i’ll have a saver on your fiver fun bet for a laugh(able)November 17, 2006 at 15:06 #31274
Oh don’t, sah. I’m a flat man and am really on a steep learning curve here.
And it is my automatic instinct too to oppose favourites like this, I agree with you.
It’s just proven expensive thus far; backed Flying Enterprise to beat Henderson’s All Star and ripped the ticket up half way round. And opposed the last four Hobbs horses. I’ve got a lot to learn, I think.:biggrin:
I don’t know the stats, but horses from those three stables seem to run to the pound whatever the gap.November 17, 2006 at 15:14 #31275
i’m actually a flat man too, and only found the forum around arc time and found it really informative.
My approach to jumping is to back big priced horses and be consistent about it, but only bet once/twice a week as opposed to every day on the flat. I’m learning too about the "science of the jumps".
Think your point about jockey "howie ….." is a good one.
don’t worry only having 2 quid saver on sir laughalot!November 17, 2006 at 16:04 #31276
Extremely unlucky, Batt. Great pick.:biggrin:
I would have loved to seen that one win for a tiny stable. I was cheering it on like a madman.
Bit dull these stables winning everything, but I suppose that’s jump racing.
<br>November 17, 2006 at 16:08 #31277
yeah i got excited. jockey gave it a great chance giving it a breather, but that favourite looked classy. might have been different had not so much rain fallen??
got a 2 to 1 return on my stake, so something to play with tomorrow!November 17, 2006 at 20:14 #31278WallaceParticipant
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EC? ;)November 17, 2006 at 20:19 #31279
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