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Betfair Chase 2006

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  • #450
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    A small but pretty decent field for the 2nd Gr1 of the season in which a decent case could be made for 5 of the 6. In my opinion the key to the race is going to be how KS is ridden. If Paul Nicholls knows that he gets 3m no problem then as far as I see it Ruby has to keep him up with the pace because if he is ridden to get 3m and the pace is subsequently slowish, then the door is going to be left open for BoS. Anyway going through the filed

    Beef Or Salmon<br>Not much to be said other then it looks like he will get his ideal conditions of small field and softish ground so looks sure to put up a good showing.

    Iris’s Gift<br>Ran a pretty decent race LTO but this is Gr1 company and he is rated over 2 stone behind KS (and realistically BoS as well) and I can’t see beating him all 5 of these.

    Kauto Star<br>The apple of his trainer’s eye and is aleays talked up before his races. The big question is does he stay the 3m. If he wins he will join an elite group of horses who have won an all-aged Gr1 Ch over 2m and 3m and will be virtaully unbackable for the King George.

    Kingscliff<br>Won this race last year and looked to be back to some semblance of form at LTO at Wetherby. However he was only beaten 1.25 lengths at Wetherby last year before winning this race so maybe not yet up to scratch.

    L’Ami<br>Yet to win outside Novice company and you get the impression that although undoubtedly talented he a perennial bridesmaid who always manages to find 1 or 2 too good on the day.

    Ollie Magern<br>Talented horse who has lost his way somewhat since winning at Wetherby last year. Will probably make the running until dropping off with about 3-4 fences left to jump.

    #31074
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    DJ beat me to it so I’ll transfer my thoughts to his thread to keep it all nice and neat

    https://theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin … opic=10093

    <br>

    (Edited by davidbrady at 2:34 pm on Nov. 16, 2006)

    #31075
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Probably better to keep all the stuff on this one with the poll so I’ve copied and pasted my ramblings.

    Numerically not the strongest but a cracking race nonethless. Kauto Star will start a short-priced favourite and has to be taken on in my opinion. I remain unconvinced by what he achieved last time and he still obviously has questions to answer regarding the trip. L’Ami is consistent, has his conditions and will run his race, but it’s difficult to see him being good enough to win a race of this nature, put in his place in the Gold Cup and Betfair Bowl at Aintree. He’s fit from a reappearance over hurdles. Ollie Magern and Iris’s Gift don’t look good enough at this level, the latter’s Charlie Hall win last season probably not as good as it looked at the the time (runner-up Take The Stand jumped poorly even by his standards but seemed to run to his best). Beef or Salmon comes into the race in good form and will be suited by the small field. That said there is likely to be plenty of pace on so will need to be on a going day jumping wise.

    The one I like is Kingscliff who has 2 pieces of form that show him to be as good as anything in this field. I thought he shaped well at Wetherby, doing best of those that cut out a strong pace until getting tired in the closing stages. Provided he’s on a going day, obviosuly that cannot be taken for granted given his recent record but he should be thereabouts and looks the value at around 6/1 in my opinion. <br>

    #31076
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I thought iris’s looked far more realxed at his fences under Elsworths ride last time and with if he comes on for last race (which he is entitled to do) could run nicely

    Cue first fence crashing fall…

    Kauto for me (i just remember Ruby’s smile after aintree…he knew it was a special performance) but if it gets bottomless and they start taking out some fences (all of them? :o ) BOS could be a real threat

    #31077
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    OK.  Looking at this logically.

    Beef Or Salmon – LAY<br>Kingscliff – LAY<br>Ollie Magern – LAY

    This leaves us three to choose from.  Kauto Star is an unknown at this distance and 11/8 doesn’t represent his chance IMO.  L’Ami and Iris’s Gift are starting to look exposed at his level, but at the odds i’d be backing the latter to finish in the money.  16/1 is too good to pass up in this company.

    #31078
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    How does logic have BoS as a lay?? Small field, possibility of soft ground, main market rival unknown at the distance, a fast finishing second last year.

    Fair enough if you don’t personally fancy him but logic surely does not indicate a lay.

    #31079
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I’ve voted for L’Ami as he’s the only one guaranteed to run his race. I’m in no rush to back it at 9/2 as I think it will drift on the day

    Beef or Salmon – Bad traveller/ Pressure on jumping

    Kauto Star – Distance

    Kingscliff – Inconsistent, needs to come on for last run

    Iris’s Gift – Jumping (Price probably represents its chance)

    Ollie Magern – There’s worse 25/1 shots about but big issue is he’s in no sort of form.

    #31080
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    Quote: from Salselon on 3:01 pm on Nov. 16, 2006[br]How does logic have BoS as a lay?? Small field, possibility of soft ground, main market rival unknown at the distance, a fast finishing second last year.

    Fair enough if you don’t personally fancy him but logic surely does not indicate a lay.<br>

    Until he shows his form in this country, i’ll continue to take him on :)<br>BoS has disappointed too many times over here, and it will never cost anyone’s bank too much to be proved wrong for the first time :)<br>At 3/1, it wouldn’t be too much of a hit if he did win.  In my book, he’ll be a lay until he can manage to win over here.<br>In a tricky little race, i’m simply going back to basics :)

    #31081
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    A small field, but a good one and an intriguing race.

    Which BoS will turn up?

    Which Kingscliff will turn up?

    Will Kauto get the trip (probably?)?

    It’s a hard race to price … but I’m really looking forward to watching it.

    Steve

    #31082
    aston
    Member
    • Total Posts 168

    I think 11/8 will look generous about Kauto. I think he’ll stay and I think he’s a cert against this exposed bunch. Max bet imo.

    #31083
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I think BOS hasnt performed at certain courses here. he was ok at Haydock last year, which is a course seemingly laid out to suit …..

    Not sure its the travelling (does he get seasick? :o ) is he a Bergkamp???

    I think Kauto will stay… That french form has to be a pointer

    #31084
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    I’ve said it a few times already but I think Kauto Star will win this comfortably, I can only see his jumping beating him. It’s a much stronger race than at Aintree but to me BOS rates as the only real danger. I shall be lumping on.

    BOS will probably finish second for a forecast after clattering a couple of fences when the pace increases.

    #31085
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    There are three horses that stand out here in terms of class, Kauto Star, Beef Or Salmon and Kingscliff.

    Beef Or Salmon doesn’t show his true form out of Ireland and whilst he’s certainly good enough to win this there’s no way I can have him given his record in England. There is a train of thought that one day he will run a race over here but way too big a risk to even contemplate a bet.

    Kingscliff is in and out. Like Beef Or Salmon if he runs his race he’s capable of landing this but you’ve got to catch Kingscliff right. Again not one I’d risk my money on.

    That leaves Kauto Star. IF he stays and jumps round he’s the logical choice as he’s a consistant horse who always runs his race. He looks as if he’ll stay but until its proven at this level there’s always a slight doubt.

    Ollie Magern’s Charlie Hall win last year does at least show he has enough ability to mix it with the big boys on "one of those days" and if Kauto Star falls / doesn’t get home at this level its not inconceivable that Ollie could benefit at a decent price.

    The other pair I can’t have at any price.

    Overall for me if Kauto Star stays and jumps I think he’s clearly the most likely winner.

    (Edited by The Market Man at 5:24 pm on Nov. 16, 2006)

    #31086
    BattBatt
    Participant
    • Total Posts 54

    i agree it’s a tight race given that kato star is an unknown at this trip.

    Anyone notice how enthusiastic ollie magern was after falling last time and jumped well without rider. I’d have a small wager at a big price – maybe 33, 40 on the exhanges?

    #31087
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Hi Batt and welcome to the forum. If Ollie is on a going day then he could catch them all from the front. But it’s a big IF!

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