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interesting to mention speed figures. From the RP – don’t think any of these put up regular top class speed figures. L’ami has done a good one in the whitbread against innox, beef or salmon’s best is against kingscliff in this race last year, kingscliff has one or two other good ones. kato stars best in defeat against monkerhostin. ollie magern has 3 or 4 in the 150+ category which is up to winning this race – think you can also make a small case that he might be best at this time of year (oct/nov) – 4 of his 5 best speed figures around this time over last 2 years
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If Paul Nicholls had any doubt about Kauto Star staying the trip, I feel sure he would have had his first attempt around the sharp Kempton track rather than this race. As it is, he obviously, (imo), thinks KS has an excellent  chance of landing the £1,000,000 bonus, with the Gold Cup the only question mark, and unless the ground goes against him, he hasn’t a lot to beat.<br>Kingscliff looks to be past his best, but invariably ensures a good pace when on song, and with Ollie Magern and Iris’s Gift to hunt him up, Beef or Salmon’s jumping again won’t prove up to the test, presuming the ground stays as forecast.<br>Kauto Star to win comfortably.
i do expect kauto star to win, but i think BoS will push him right to the line. although we havent seen kauto in a fighting finish, correct me if im wrong, so its possible he may not find all that much under pressure??
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Oddly enough, the poll at this stage almost exactly mirrors the betting, to a 100% book:
6/4  Kauto<br> 4/1  BoS<br> 7/1  Iris’s<br> 9/1  Kingscliff<br> 9/1  L’Ami<br>20/1 Ollie M.
Bit of a quandary for the value seekers, unless they’re prepared to take a total punt?
yeah your right dj, but that wasnt a grade 1! just a thought that he hasnt really had a fight, but he might not get one saturday anyway!!
Good point Reet Hard – I don’t know if that says more for the Bookies or the people on here!
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 9:39 pm on Nov. 16, 2006)
FWIW
I’ve Kauto Star at evens – Sire Produces horses up 2.5miles, Dam sire 3miles
Stays imo – question is is he good enough to beat this motley crew
Yes
All the best
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:02 am on Nov. 18, 2006)
Is it possible that support for Beef Or Salmon could force Kauto Star out to 15/8?
The shortest price I will back a horse at (or indeed anything) is 15/8 (Its 15/8 for a reason obviously) and i was wondering if anyone thinks it could drift that much?
I must sound good saying on the two threads I like Kauto Star, Beef or Salmon and L’Ami! And did I mention Ollie Magern?:biggrin:.
I ask whether it will touch 15/8 because I see it is already out to 6/4. At 15/8 it is a bet for me as it is the likeliest winner and value in my opinion at 15/8.
i’ve decided to steam in on kingscliffe at 9.2 win and 3.2 place. Think he’s been round Haydock three times which i reckon will be important today.
I think haydock is one of those courses that particular horses do well at – there was another king….. something that used to win races regularly round here – can someone remind me?
He’s fit and well with two reasonable topspeed figures this year – 140+. I’ve also got a little on ollie magern
How can he be double the price of beef or salmon
Quote: from Batt on 10:10 am on Nov. 18, 2006[br]<br>I think haydock is one of those courses that particular horses do well at – there was another king….. something that used to win races regularly round here – can someone remind me?
Kingsmark?
Tissue for the race (Betfair decimals)
Kauto Star 3.2<br>Beef or Salmon 5.3<br>L’Ami 5.7<br>Kingscliff 7.1<br>Ollie Magern 10.6<br>Iris’s Gift 21.2
Your point earlier about Ollie Magern enjoying his loose school after falling lto was well made. I too make him half the price he currently is though doesn’t justify a bet. For a trainer who tends to blow hot then cold with alarming regularity, Twister has remained in form for an unusually long time this season.
I’ve bet L’Ami at 6.0; the consensus seems to be he’s ‘exposed’ but is only a 7yo and to my eyes is generally progressive.
Will add Kingscliff if it drifts past 10.0. As you rightly say Batt, CD form not to be sniffed at here. Like to see him ridden just off the pace behind OM .
Neither with any great confidence as KS is by some way the likeliest winner and the race was a borderline pass as my records tell me that opposing horses I assess to be 2/1 (3.0) or less with ‘value’ alternatives simply because said 2/1 chance is underlaid at ~11/8 (as KS is now) are a subset of bets that show a long term loss.
Looking forward – with some trepidation I confess – to seeing how Elsworth deals with Iris’s Gift over these fences at what promises to be a good pace.
thanks drone, yes kingsmark – looking forward to the race now and hope kato star doesn’t stay!
Looks like KS stays :)<br>Shocked at the way IG dropped out like a lame duck. Not the horse of old, the same as KC. Shocking runs from both.
that was top notch from kato star – 6/4 king george now. was cheering on ollie for a place, but not good enough – will be interested in times/speed ratings. kingscliffe was a stinking run
Quote: from Racing Daily on 2:01 pm on Nov. 18, 2006[br]Looks like KS stays :)<br>Shocked at the way IG dropped out like a lame duck. Not the horse of old, the same as KC. Shocking runs from both.<br>
KS immensely impressive – not to be opposed until he gets beaten !
I can’t see why anyone would be shocked at IG’s run . I am just shocked he is continued with at this levle over fences .
The chances of him staying in the Welsh National are nil . I urge connections to put him back over hurdles or better still retire him .
Very true Ardross. IG is clearly flattered by his hurdles form of old. Not the same horse over the big obstacles. <br>I merely saw weaknesses in half the field and was looking for him to recapture some of the old sparkle.<br>Clearly it was a one horse race. Now we know that KC stays, the race was never really in doubt. I’d have still liked better than 11/10 though, given the uncertainty. I don’t like backing at short prices based on guesswork.
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