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yes, but zaahid and lang shining still needed a fair few to come out. i just can’t get my head round the money going on zaahid in the past 24/48 hours
so – the favourite zaahid and lang shining don’t run. this so seemed to be the case, so why all the speculation and implications particularly that zaahid would run. i assume a fair amount of money lost on it
thanks for that info, will we know then which runners are definitely IN and OUT of the 22?
Re: trainer g lyons
thanks for pointing out. i hadn’t heard of him before, so only really noticed what he’d sent over.
Declarations/the cut:
I understand that there will be no more than 22 runners. The racing post "cards" sections has more than 22 runners with jockies booked above zaahid and even more above lang shining.
Reading now in RP that some horses wont make the cut and then some horses will be withdrwan possibly because of state of ground.
Given that its Good Friday tomorrow – does anyone know when this speculation will end and when the draw will take place for stall positions
am clueless about draw. all i’ve read is that the clerk of course thinks there is no draw bias as they came up the rail for one meeting and up the middle for another, which leads him to conclude no draw bias (?).
Anyway, more generally, i think the investment going on in returfing the top tracks is making every effort to remove draw biases, so i am going to try and ignore any pointers and bet on the basis of no draw bias!
Thanks for pointing out Rio Riva, already second in a Lincoln and conditions should be perfect – fast run mile on soft ground. Can more or less forget last two runs on fastish ground.
See its 19 now on betfair and could be a good straight place bet, about 5 or 6.0 maybe
Thanks Colin.
I feel quite strongly about the "value" argument. Be interested in your idea of the winner
Don’t get me wrong, i agree with the bookmakers that kauto star is the most likely winner of the race, but think the market is somewhat distorted by the Nicholls/Walsh/owners/Denman stuff.
The Gold Cup has had some reasonable and big priced winners in the past. Its just one race on a particular day in March every year and there are so many factors at play that will on the whole even things out for the runners on any particular day, essentially the concept of luck/chance both good and bad.
One of the strongest patterns to todays race is exotic dancer’s love of cheltenham – it is undisputable, and for a horse that has been so close to kauto star, 14/1 is just too big.
good luck today, i had a ‘mare yesterday
I’m a speed figure fan when it comes to betting, combined with the form i.e. when horses do a good speed figure, are they upheld by the runners in that race when they subsequently run.
So my points to note:
Last years Gold Cup was not fast run. kauto and exotic played cat and mouse and kept out of trouble. Unsurprisingly, ruby walsh made a decision to make room and press kauto’s button a bit before the last. he quickened and won well but put in one of his lower speed figures of 144.
He can do 170 speed figures over two miles and the way the race was run played into his hands.
Exotic Dancer got closer at haydock in a faster run race over 3 miles. the speed figure was massive – 176, but i understand that this could be an over-estimate because of a slight change to the course?? Nonetheless – a faster run race, and exotic got closer. Softish ground and back at Exotic’s beloved Cheltenham, given a fast run championship race, you must hope exotic will get close/closer/beat kauto at his best.
Now to Denman – all impressive wins.
Highest speed figure 157 at cheltenham beating Snowy Morning last year. Hennessey win (impressive first run under big weight), 153 speed figure beating Dream Alliance.
Goes on to win nicely in Ireland beating Mossbank and the Listener, in slow race (41 speed figure) and most recently has a spin round Newbury and posts a cosy 145.
All i can say, at the price, he has not posted top-drawer speed figures and the list of horses he has beaten are unimpressive. None have really gone on to do anything. This is enough for me to look elsewhere for value. If he wins like Masterminded did yesterday, so be it, great for racing and i’ll hail a champion, but simply no value.
I’m therefore hoping for a strongly run championship race today and will hope exotic’s interupted preparation will prove to be a bonus and that he’ll be at his prime today.
I must also mention, Halcon Genelardais. He posted a 172 speed figure when second to Miko in Welsh National. He didn’t run well in last years Gold Cup with blinkers on. If that is behind the bad run he may be worth considering today.
Look at the form of Welsh national as well – Miko went on to win off 9lb higher mark and they pulled clear of Over the Creek which ran a blinder yesterday coming second in the 4mile race. Halcon gave it nearly 2 stone that day!
Okay, today might not be stamina zapping enough. But what if it is hell for leather pace and the bit of rain has got into the already deadish ground? Could it be powering on up the hill better than anything else. Perhaps he will make the pace from halfway to ensure the stamina test?
I’m small stakes exotic and halcon ew and a reverse forecsat for fun.
Final thought is that over the years, how often have clashes of titans resulted in neither of them being placed!
Good luck to all the runners and go fast!
i agree with getting on royal auclair at about 25.0 on betfair – a graet deal of encouragement from last run and he has been slowly slipping down the handicap.
le duc was 9/4 fav for that race at cheltenham and fell when closing, and although he doesn’t always complete, he has run some sound races at aintree and think should also be covered.
The hope is that there are no real improving types and the experienced old timers get in the mix – think they might be value.
I’m of the opinion that bewleys berry doesn’t like it too soft, so assuming genuine good to soft ground i’m not backing it at 6/1 first time out.
I’m really interested KINGS CAPRICE in the Wokingham. It’s about 50 on betfair.
Think you want a middle to high draw, a horse that goes on softish going and the stamina at the end of the race to repel the late finishers.
Kings Caprice will try and make the running with his 5lb claimer who has won on him twice and back on today.
He’s been making the running in very fast run seven furlong races this year and fading, but i think he’ll be spot on today and have the going he wants. His handicap form at the back end of last year is excellent and has run a great race at ascot over 7f – finished 3rd behind All Ivory.
Think the big race calvary charge over stiff 6f on softish ground is tailor-made for this horse.
I’ll have to have a go on Geake’s other runner – Ripples Maid with the eye catching booking of McEvoy
I’m going a bit e/w on Philson Run. Know it’s first time out this year but was respectable 6th in Scottish National on ground probably too quick. Trip/ground fine today so having a small stake at 44.0.
fantastic swallow cottage. here’s hoping scuba goes in with jimmy fortune – got 9.6 on bf to win 3.2 place
think it’s a really open race this year. haven’t caught any of the racing today, but on the assumption it’s really soft, i’d say some value in Ross Comm each way.
46.0 on betfair to win, 7.4 place.
I like the race comments last time out in RP
"Ross Comm, sent off just 16-1 for last season’s Grand National, ran like a horse who would be better for the run. He appeared to blow up inside the final 6f, and remains a horse to be interested in".
that was top notch from kato star – 6/4 king george now. was cheering on ollie for a place, but not good enough – will be interested in times/speed ratings. kingscliffe was a stinking run
thanks drone, yes kingsmark – looking forward to the race now and hope kato star doesn’t stay!
