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Batt,
I hope you had a bit on for a place. I had to go out(shopping) when the race was on. I didn’t even have a bet today.<br>
Had equal stakes at 23.0 and 6.0 for win and place. Ran a blinder – went 15 lengths clear, took a breather then kicked again jumping well throughout. The favourite looked good though. Shame it rained so much as was more in favour of favourite. thanks for putting me onto it through your ratings – thought it was really good value
Some excellent jumps today, but I’ve concentrated on Lingfield:
2.10  MR LAMBROS 129, Qadar 127, Areyoutalkingtome 126.
2.40 COUNTRY PURSUIT 120, Cold Turkey 119, Sweet Indulgence 118, Postage Stampe 118.
3.15 MILLVILLE 131, Group Captain 130, Kew Green 128
3.45 NEARDOWN BEAUTY 111, Magical Music 109, All Quiet 104.
A blank day, 3 unplaced plus 1NR
Stakes 3pts Loss 3pts
Running Total
Stakes 72pts Loss 51.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 4:30 pm on Nov. 18, 2006)
Aintree
1.00 Degas Art 140H/ 154F, Faucon Bleu 130H, First Feerie 125H/130F
1.30 SHANNON’S PRIDE 150, Hakim 146, Swansea Bay 146.
2.00 Ursis 147, TAKE A MILE 147, Ball O Malt 144, Nikola 144.
2.35 TANTERANI 168+, JUST IN DEBT 167, Clan Royal 167.
3.10 Lennon 155C/132H, Opera Da Coeur 152H, Backstage 151C/131H.
3.45 First Cry 116, Bob Mountain 116, Nicozetto 116, Rothbury 115, The Ring 115.
A blank day.
Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts
Running Total
Stakes76pts Lose 55.63pts<br> ÂÂÂ
(Edited by Artemis at 5:48 pm on Nov. 19, 2006)
I’ve rated the card at Southwell today and suggested some ‘value’ bets based on present odds(about 10am).
It’s very moderate racing with many horses lacking consistency, which always tempers confidence, but I would be disappointed if I didn’t show a profit on the day.
12.10 Mountain Pass 53, TEE JAY KASSIDY 52, Quiet Reading 51.
12.40 JEWEL OF INDIA 50, Vibrato 50, Uhuru Peak 49.
1.10 BORZOI MAESTRO 86, Larky’s Lob 80, Henry Tun 79.
1.40 Sheriff’s Silk 81, Lover’s Kiss 77, Burningfold Babe 72.
2.10 Melpomene 89, Reinstated 89.
2.40 GREYT BIG STUFF 102, Legend House 94, Johannesburg Cat 85.
3.10 Trinity Rose 87, Virginia Rose 81.
3.40 La Colline 105, Look Of Eagles 86. ÂÂÂ
A blank day.
Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts
Running Total
Stakes 80pts Loss 59.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 9:49 am on Nov. 21, 2006)
Kempton is the meeting of choice today. The following are indicated by ratings as suggested value bets.
1.00 THE BIG CANADIAN
1.35 PRIORS DALE
2.05 FORDINGBRIDGE
3.10 FREE GIFT, IL ATHOU
Only the one winner at 5/4.
Stakes 5pts Loss 2.75pts
Running Total
Stakes 85pts Loss 62.38pts<br>(Edited by Artemis at 9:57 am on Nov. 21, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:23 pm on Nov. 21, 2006)
I’ve found two races today where the ratings indicate a value bet.
Lingfield 3.00
Daryal 134, GURU 132, San Antonio 132, Creinch 130.
I think Daryal is too short at 6/5 and it’s close between those rated a few points below.
Wetherby 3.10<br> <br>JUNGLE JINKS 130, Viciana 128, Sharp Belline 127, Jimmy Bond 126.
Jungle Jinks at 9/2 is a very fair price.
A winner at 11/2 and a 2nd.
Stakes 2pts Profit 4.50pts
Running Total
Stakes 87pts Loss 57.88pts
(Edited by Artemis at 7:26 pm on Nov. 22, 2006)
Wolverhampton 6.20
REDWOOD ROCKS 102, Dichoh 100, Bessemer 95, Stoic Leader 95, Imperial Lucky 95.
Redwood Rocks looks a fair price at 7/2. He has a bit in hand of these, but probably needs to be near the front throughout.
Taunton 3.25
Sarin 135, Slick 130, RED SOCIETY 129.
Sarin now looks too short at around 6/4, so I’m taking a chance that the course specialist can return to his best at about 10/1. ÂÂÂ
Both unplaced.
Stakes 2pts Loss 2pts<br>Running Total<br>Stakes 89pts Loss 59.88pts
(Edited by Artemis at 7:12 pm on Nov. 23, 2006)
Kempton seems to offer a couple of betting opportunities.
5.50 MANDARIN SPIRIT 100, Pamir 98, Summer Recluse 97.
6.20 RESPLENDENT NOVA 112, Finsbury 107, Purus 107.
At Newbury, the handicap hurdle looks very tight indeed, but in the Amateur rider’s handicap chase, the ratings point very clearly to KERSTINO TWO(143) in preference to the fav, Lou De Moulin Mas(136) who couldn’t win last time with the assistance of Ruby Walsh.
All three were placed.
Stakes 3pts Loss 3pts<br>Running Total<br>Stakes 92pts Loss 62.88pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:36 pm on Nov. 24, 2006)
Newbury 2.40
VODKA BLEU 172, Turpin Green 170, State Of Play 169, Presenting Express 169, Parson’s Legacy 169.
Vodka Bleu at around 10/1 remains very well handicapped and has a lot of positives. The distance (if it gets heavy) is a concern.
3.45
SEA THE LIGHT 156, Craven 155, Midas Way 154.
Newcastle 2.25
SILVER SEDGE 129, Shannon’s Pride 127, Alfy Rich 123.
A winner at 13/2, a NR and one unplaced.
Stakes 2pts  Profit  5.50pts<br>Running Total<br>Stakes 94pts  Loss 57.38pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:44 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:47 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
Newbury 2.40
Stern 146, FOOL ON THE HILL 144, Out The Black 143.
Newbury 3.15
MANHATTAN BOY 135, Tessanoora 129, Sole Agent 129.
One winner at 7/4, the other unplaced.
Stakes 2pts Win 0.75pts
Running Total<br>Stakes 96pts Loss 56.63pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:38 pm on Nov. 26, 2006)
Nothing of interest today.
I am being much more selective than a few weeks ago, concentrating on those races where the final rating is 130+ over jumps and 100+ on the flat. I’ve looked back at the results over the last month and concluded that I was wrong to look for selections below this level because of the inconsistencies in the form. I have stated before that these ratings can be used for any level of racing and I stick by that, but they do seem to do much better in the higher grades of racing.
It will take a long time to recover from the poor run of results in October/November, but I’ll stick with it for the time being.
I had a couple shortlisted for today, but they are both trading at odds on at the moment and I think they are too short. They are:<br>Hurricane Spirit(L1.20) and Nenuphar Collonges(H3.10).
Kempton 5.50
Rezzago 103, QUANTUM LEAP 102, Hello Man 101.
There are few horses at this level as consistent as Quantum Leap. The handicapper knows all about him and seems to have his measure, yet when he gets a decent pace and times his run right, he can still outpace most of these.
Ayr 2.00
MISTER MCGOLDRICK 171, Wild Cane Ridge 167, Ransboro 161.
Mister McGoldrick is a market drifter for no apparent reason. He ran up to his best in a much more competitive race last time and looks different class to the opposition here.
Quantum Leap was third at 14/1, beaten less than a length. he probably won’t be such a good price next time. Mister McGoldrick looked like he was going to run away from these rivals but he weakened very quickly and didn’t get home in this ground, which was softer than I expected.
Stakes 2pts Loss 2pts
Running Total
Stakes 98pts Loss 58.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 7:28 pm on Nov. 29, 2006)
The ‘good thing’ for today is Flash Cummins in the Leicester 2.00. Well clear on ratings and has scope for improvement and the opposition seems moderate.<br>However, the price(4/6) reflects this, so no bet today.
Scrambled home at 8/13.
(Edited by Artemis at 9:35 am on Dec. 1, 2006)
Quite a long ‘short list’ for today, whittled down to just one bet:
Exeter 3.20
BILLY BRAY(130) is well ahead on the ratings based on recent chase form. There are a few here who could be better than they have shown so far, but I much prefer to stay with proven form.
The others on the short list were rejected because the odds didn’t appeal. They were:
Minella Tipperary<br>Labelthou<br>My Turn Now<br>Shade Cozy<br><br>Billy Bray didn’t seem to stay this distance on the testinmg ground and finished tailed off.<br>There were two winners and a second on the short list.
Stake 1pt Loss 1pt<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:15 pm on Dec. 2, 2006)
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