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Not much time today, so just a list of my bets with latest Betfair prices:
Goodwood
2.15 Championship Point 130 10.02.50 Yellowstone 143 5.3
3.25 Asset 144 5.0
4.00 Starlit Sands 136 (Nap) 3.45
4.35 Cape Secret 119 18.0
5.05 ——-
5.40 Nawaqees 113 7.6
A lot of ifs and buts in there, but that’s it.
Two winners, Championship Point at 8/1 and Yellowstone at 5/2jf. Asset 5/2f ran a good race, but was beaten by a better horse on the day.
Starlit Sands was about 10lbs below her Ascot form, although she might not have won even if she’d ran right up to it.Cape Secret went wrong so can be forgiven while Nawaqees didn’t have a going day and disappointed.
I usually allow for a high draw bias(15+ runners) in races of 7f and 8f on the round course of up to 2lbs, but it seemed to pay horses to be held up and brought wide. It was suggested that the far rail in the straight was riding slower than the middle of the track, which might explain this. Usually, if a horse can get to the far rail, it is the best place to be. [/color:2n8rh5ib]A few watching races today at Goodwood and also a few decent bets.
Rio De La Plata 135 looks a penalty in the 2.50. Will be very short. Watch only.
The Sussex looks quite open. I quite fancy Asiatic Boy 136+ on his dirt form earlier this year. Goodwood is totally different from Nad Al Sheba, but this horse could be something special.There are also three horses rated above him on my ratings, so another interesting race to watch.
In the 2.15 marathon, Full House114 should run well. 6/1.
In the 4.05, it is hard to split Raffas 130 and Mariotto 129. The former may be very well handicapped. 9/1
The day’s best bet is Gold Hush 108 who has been well touted as an improving filly. 3/1
Another improving filly isDiamond Diva 122 who is just prefered to Turnkey 123 in the 5.45. No disrespect to Adele Rothery, who rides Turnkey and has done for the horse’s last three runs, but if the trainer’s son had been on board, Turnkey would have looked more tempting.
Rio De La Plata won very well and must be in the top five 2yos seen this season.
Asiatic Boy ran a decent race and can win a top class event on turf this season.
Full House (11/2) pulled too hard and despite Jimmy Fortune’s efforts to settle him at the back, he used up too much energy fighting for his head and was well beaten.
Raffas(8/1) was staying on yet never looked dangerous. He will improve.
Gold Hush(3/1f) was given a lot to do by McEvoy but was not unlucky.Seemed to lack a change of pace and not as well handicapped as I thought.
Diamond Diva(9/2) ran with credit and looked the winner 2f out, but she could not match the useful winner. She might find life difficult in handicaps after this.A blank day.
[/color:1stnzehe]Thursday 2 August
Third day of the Goodwood meeting. The form book is more reliable than it was at Ascot and so far there have been no real shocks; every winner has had some sort of a claim on the book….. hope I haven’t spoken too soon.
The 2.15 looks very open and trappy. Watching brief.
The sprint(2.50) should go to Enticing 146 Nap,even though she had an off day last time. Her form looks very solid indeed apart from that blip. 7/2
The Goodwood Cup(3.25). Distinction 142 is clear on the ratings but is returning from an injury and is thought to need the race. I don’t think many of Michael Stoute’s older horses are sent to the races to get fit, so the longish absence doesn’t put me off. 8/1.
4.00 Pipedreamer 139 is well clear on ratings and is an automatic choice mainly because he is still very lightly raced and can improve.
4.35 Shmook 124 had the run of the race and the benefit of a good draw last time. Same conditions today and may be even better on this turning track from the front under R Hills. If he doesn’t grab the lead, I would be concerned. 3/1.
5.40 A lot of in and out sprinters on this fast 5f. Texas Gold 117 is top-rated and might just come back to form with track, trip and going to suit, A speculative bet at 16/1.[/b]
One winner, Pipedreamer at 11/2 SP. The others all ran well enough and only Distinction wasn’t placed.[/color:11z6h55r]
Thanks, Dave.
Goodwood is a tough meeting with its undulations, bends and a tendency for horses to stay over beside the far rail causing bunching and many horses being denied a clear run. This could be worse tomorrow(Friday) when the rail is moved back leaving a fresh strip of ground over on the far side. So far this week, no complete shocks like Stonegate Lad, 66/1 on Saturday. Early days, though.
I think the task of finding winners is getting no easier despite all the data and replays in our possession.
Short of time today. I’ve backed the following at Goodwood:
3.30 Third Set 140 4.1Betfair NAP
4.05 Western Art 132 3.85 Betfair
4.40 Distant Charm 109 10.5 Betfair
5.10 Border Music 123 8.2 Betfair
5.45 Morinqua 117 10.6 Betfair
The selections are all top -rated.
Third Set (5/2f) won very comfortably and Western Air was a NR. Distant Charm and Border Music had their chances while Morinqua ran a gallant second.[/color:2meeyl9d]
Saturday 4 August
Final day of the Goodwood meeting.
2.10 Purple Emperor 117 7/1
2.45 Rahiyah 140 About 7/2
3.20 Peeping Fawn 147(Nap) 11/4
3.55 Borderlescott 132 16/1
Viking Spirit 132 11/15.05 Ten Meropa 116 7/2
5.40 Peruvian Prince 115 3/1
Peeping Fawn(2/1f) was an impressive winner and Borderlescott(12/1) was just caught in the last stride. Purple Emperor ran well enough. Rahiyah wasn’t beaten far in a very hot listed race. Ten Meropa(drifted in the betting) completely missed the break and is worth another chance. Peruvian Prince needs a fair pace for his hold up style, but didn’t get it.
[/color:28ok2rt3]Sunday August 5th
The 3.40 at Chester looks like one of those ‘whose turn today’ handicaps.
Stoic Leader 110 is top rated ahead of H Harrison 108 and Phluke 105.
He used to be quite consistent and certainly knows how to win, so he’s a hopeful rather than confident choice at around 7/1.The 4.10 is interesting:
Baltic King 135, Green Manalishi 135, Drayton 134.I cannot be confident about any of these three, although I would be very surprised(but not astonished) if one of them didn’t win it.
There are some short priced ‘good things’ at Newbury, but all too short for me.
Stoic Leader(9/2) ran a fair race,finishing 5th, looking as though the handicapper has him about right. He might do better giving weight to lesser rivals.[/color:vljhk40s]
Green Manilishi (11/2) beat Baltic King by a short head.[/color:vljhk40s]Monday 6 August
3.20 Ripon.
Elkhorn 114 is at the top of his game at the moment and could have a few lbs of improvement to come. Steel Blue 113 is respected, although he often follows a good run with a less good one. Desert Commander 112 has a bit of class when things go right for him.
(About 9/1)Elkhorn finished last, well beaten. This couldn’t have been his running. The ground cannot be blamed because he has won on faster going than this.[/color:19r9omam]
Wednesday August 8th
Plenty of moderate racing with very few races of any quality.
The 4.00 at Brighton looks quite open. I’ve managed to narrow it down to two, both equally rated on 106. They are Kasumi and Scarlet Flyer. Kasumi is a filly in form and ran very well in a fair handicap at Goodwood last week. Scarlet Fyer is well handicapped and also ran a promising race at this track last time. They both have slight stamina doubts over this trip, but Brighton isn’t the stiffest test, so They should both go very close. Kasumi is about 4/1 and Scarlet Flyer about 8/1.
In the 4.10 Pontefract, I like Ajaan 107. Hasn’t really lived up to early expectations, but obviously has shown a lot of ability at home. He should be suited by this fairly stiff 12f and the blinkers might help him to settle a little better. 4/1.
Two winners – Kasumi(3/1f) and Ajaan(5/1), both given a fine ride by their respective jockeys, Travis Block and Ted Durcan. Scarlet Flyer didn’t get the run of the race, although he had every chance.[/color:gxqty0pe]
Thursday 9 August
Only onepossible bet today, Ballroom Dancer 112 in the 3.40 Haydock. She has been steadily progressive at this level and should be good enough to win this. The price will not be generous – I’ve left a wager at 2/1(3.1) on Betfair, which probably will not get matched.
Finished last after running too freely. Was neverbetter than 13/8, so my bet was not matched.[/color:3ql7kemy]
Friday 10 August
Only one bet again on a day of surprisingly moderate racing.
The 6.45 Newmarket is a trappy nursery handicap, but I think Ghetto 113 looks a fair bit better than this level and he is well clear on ratings. Might prefer a longer trip and you can never be too confident in these races with so many progressive 2yos. Still, a fair bet at around 13/2.
Non runner[/color:xvm7pdq9]
Sunday August 11th
The best racing is at the Curragh today, but I won’t be playing.
The rains are about again this week, so I’m waiting for news from the courses and watching race times before committing any money.
Looking back over the last month, I’ve put up 46 bets for a return of just 43pts to a 1pt level stake bet at SP. Nothing to shout about, although I’m actually a little bit in front using Betfair rather than SP.
I’ve been thinking about the Ratings method and looking at ways anyone might use just the bare ratings without adding on the additional points for other ‘positive’ factors.
Obviously, you could just follow the top-rated(RPR or Topspeed), which many people do. It is very easy, except you need some way of making a selection(s) when there are joint top-rated, as is often the case.
You might also consider how reliable the ratings are relevant to today’s conditions, which is basically how the RPR team make their selection when horses are joint top rated. However, they are still bound to select the clear top rated even if the ground conditions are considered to be unfavourable.
My own approach is to give extra weight to recent form(RPR) and also to add on a bit if the Topspeed ratings are on a par with the RPR and a bit extra if that Topspeed figure is fairly recent.
I’ll outline this in my next post and then put it to the test over a range of races for a month.
I’ve been using the ‘quick ratings from the RP’ method for the past few weeks(see separate thread) with quite a bit of success – perhaps more than I’ve had in recent months with the full ratings method outlined at the start of this thread. I believe my original method was flawed in any case.
In future, I’ll just do a quick rating of a race I’m interested in, then follow this with a more detailed look at the form using the RP website and rely on my intuition, while still trusting the numbers from the RP.
So, no more ratings based selections from me, and since I do not really believe in any systems that have a list of rules to follow, probably not too many contributions either relating to this type of system. Maybe some constructive criticism or help, if anyone need it.
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