RP Ratings Revisited

[Artemis]

Two races at Windsor:

3.40<br>Glencalvie 110, Bonnie Prince Blue 108, Street Warrior 106.

4.15<br>Cornus 104, Desert Master 101, Figaro Flyer 100.

Both unplaced

Running Total<br>Stakes 162pts      Loss 68.04pts

(Edited by Artemis at 7:42 am on April 17, 2007)

[Artemis]

Nottingham 3.50

Ambrosiano 103, Autograph Hunter 101, Spirit Of The Mist101, Kay Gee Bee 101.<br>unpl 9/2

Warwick 4.00

Kalankari 124, Dream Theme 124, Kew Green 122, Fajr 121. <br>2nd 6/4 fav, went lame.

Running Total<br>Stakes 164pts    Loss 70.04pts

(Edited by Artemis at 9:35 am on April 18, 2007)

[Artemis]

Newmarket<br>2.00<br>Urban Spirit 106, Eradicate 103, Putra Square 101.<br>unpl 3/1

3.10<br>Tobosa 120, Prime Defender 119, Eddie Jock 119<br>unpl 9/1<br>4.20<br>Al Shemali 117, Fishforcompliments 117, Hearthstead Mansion 116, Salford Mill 116, To The Max 116.<br>3rd 7/1<br>5.30<br>Sakhie’s Secret 113, Cheap Street 111, Lady Lily 110, College Scholar 109.<br>won 9/4

Stakes 4pts   Loss 0.75pts

Running Total

Stakes 168pts    Loss 70.79pts<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 8:26 am on April 19, 2007)

[Artemis]

Newmarket<br>3.10Sierra Vista 129, Baltic King 125, Fantasy Believer 124, Fire Up The Band 124, Paradise Isle 124.<br>Unpl 8/1

4.20 Imperial Star 138, Mandura 137, Speciosa 137, Secret World 136.<br>2nd 12/1<br>5.30<br>Players Please 117, Metamorphic 117, Regal Flush 113.<br>won 7/1

Stakes 3pts     profit 5pts

Running Total

Stakes 171pts   Loss 65.79pts

(Edited by Artemis at 9:51 am on April 20, 2007)

[Artemis]

Newbury<br>2.10<br>Escape Route 117, Thunder Storm Cat 115, Princess Valerina 115.<br>3rd 3/1fav

2.40<br>Maltese Falcon 129,Green Malinishi 128, Merlin’s Dancer 126.<br>unpl 4/1fav

3.15<br>Medicine Path 125, Go On Be A Tiger 122.<br>unpl 2/1fav

Thirsk <br>4.15  <br>Spanish Ace 105, Glencairn Star 101, Aegean Dancer 100.<br>unpl 3/1fav

Stakes 4pts   Loss 4pts

Running Total<br>Stakes 175pts    Loss 69.79pts

(Edited by Artemis at 8:09 am on April 21, 2007)

[Artemis]

Newbury 2.10<br>Admiral’s Cruise 137, Marahel 136, Munsef 134.<br>unpl<br>2.40<br>Ace Of Hearts 116,Plum Pudding 116, Royal Oath 116, Night Crescendo 116, Bolodenko 115, European Dream 115.<br>unpl

3.15<br>Indian Ink 130, Silca Chiave 127, Silk Blossom 126.<br>2nd<br>Stakes 3pts      Loss 3pts<br>Running Total<br>Stakes 178pts  Loss 72.79pts

3.55<br>Dutch Art 137, Captain Marvellous 135, Major Cadeaux, Yazamaan 132.<br>No Bet

(Edited by Artemis at 7:49 am on April 22, 2007)

[Artemis]

Pontefract 3.10<br>Zomerlust 113, Out After Dark 112, Obe Gold 111.

Windsor 6.25<br>Sam Lord 103, Lacework 103, Perfect Star 101.

Both unplaced

I’ve been ranting about the very poor value offered by SP betting at the moment. I cannot see any hope of things improving in the future. The performance of the ratings on this thread are measured by a 1pt level stake at SP. Even if the ratings manage to find some decent priced winners, there isn’t any hope that they can succeed in making a profit at SP over a long period.

The only alternatives are:

1. Bet only at prices available before the SP is returned.

2. Bet on the exchanges.

3. Bet using a combination of 1. and 2. above.

I’ve noticed that taking prices prior to SP has become much less of an option since the method of returning SPs was changed. Firms are very keen to get everyone betting at SP, so early morning prices seem much tighter and less competitive(cartels?) than last season. Early shows from the tracks are the best option, about 5 or 10 minutes before the off. Not the first show, which can be very poor value, but the prices available after the market settles when the competition for the punter’s pound is strongest.

The exchanges do not have much liquidity until later in the day, but you might get decent value for smaller money by betting earlier. Close to the off, the exchanges are usually marginally ahead of the track odds for most horses and almost always beat the dreaded SP.

Posting selections early in the day, it is impossible to advise any prices that will definitely be available, so one would have to start giving out conditional bets such as:  Horse A provided you can get 9/4 or better.

This isn’t really on, except with professional services, and I’m only posting here because of my hobby which is an interest in the reliability(or not) of form and speed ratings.

My firm belief is that it is almost impossible to make a profit IN THE LONG RUN from betting on horses at SP only. If you have to bet at SP, recognise that you are doing it for your amusement and that like all entertainment, you are going to have to pay for it. You can still have a lot of fun doing that.   <br>

(Edited by Artemis at 7:48 am on April 24, 2007)

[dave jay]

That’s an excellent post Artemis .. I would agree that all of that .. your going to struggle to break even at SP never mind about making a profit. The puzzling solving side of betting is still as entertaining as ever though.

[Artemis]

Cheers Dave.

There’s no financial profit in this game, only the pleasure of solving a puzzle. We both know that, but others will still lose more than they can afford trying to prove us wrong.

[Artemis]

Bath 6.35<br>Ollie George106, Mustajed 105, Magic Moth 105, Baizically 104.<br>Won 10/3fav

7.05<br>Street Warrior 106, Personify 100, Merrymadcap 100.<br>Won 3/1fav

Running Total<br>Stakes 182pts     Loss 68.64pts

(Edited by Artemis at 9:28 am on April 25, 2007)

[Artemis]

Epsom 1.50<br>Cape Royal 114, Bluebok 113,Kay Two 112<br>2nd 9/1<br>2.20<br>Dubai Twilight 107, Raincoat 107, Lakshmi 107,Spirit Of The Mist 106.<br>3rd of 4 11/2

2.55<br>I Have Dreamed 115, Tiger Tiger 114, Tranquiliser 113.<br>NR<br>3.30<br>Gavroche 119, Impeller 118, Charlie Tokyo 118, Cactus King 118. <br>NR

Running Total<br>Stakes 184pts    Loss 70.64pts

(Edited by Artemis at 7:50 am on April 26, 2007)

[Artemis]

Beverley 3.25

Arch Of Titus 107, Handsome Falcon 107, Artimino 104, Fragrancy 104. <br>unplaced

Running Total<br>Stakes 185pts     Loss 71.64pts

(Edited by Artemis at 10:08 am on April 27, 2007)

[Artemis]

Sandown 1.45

Kandidate 136, Notnowcato 135, Art Deco 135, Red Rocks 134, Mountain High 134.<br>unpl 13/2<br>2.15<br>Tybalt 113, Zaham 113, Buccellatti 110.<br>3rd 7/4fav<br>4.00<br>Sunshine Kid 114, Opera Music, Yeaman’s Hall 110.<br>No Bet

4.35 <br>Silkwood 109, Mandrangola 108, Salaasa 107, Surrey Spinner 107.<br>unpl 12/1

Running Total<br>Stakes 188pts    Loss 74.64pts

(Edited by Artemis at 10:06 am on April 28, 2007)

[Artemis]

A disappointing start to the turf season……which follows on from a very disappointing 2006. I haven’t altogether lost faith in the’RP and Topspeed ratings plus other positive factors’ method, but I think I need to clear my head of it for a while. Not much point in continuing to post ratings which are performing so poorly.

I really don’t know why they are doing so badly. I suspect it might be related to the fact they are overbet and the SP over-rounds are less favourable to punters than they were prior to November 2006.

So, it’s back to basics for the time being, just using the ratings as a guide and trying to get back to more intuitive methods. Funny, really. I developed the deterministic method because I thought the intuitive method was frustratingly inconsistent. The ratings are consistent, but consistently unprofitable at the moment.<br>If you set yourself free from a tight and logical system, you set sail again on a journey of almost certain frustration. Or, you can always leave it alone.

It reminds me of the Woody Allen joke about a man who goes to see his shrink and tells him about his flatmate.

"My flatmate is annoying the life out of me. He goes about all the time behaving as a chicken, strutting and clucking", he explained.

"Why don’t you have him certified as insane?", replied the psychiatrist.

"I would do", said the man,"But I need the eggs".  

[dave jay]

:biggrin:  .. nice one Artemis.

I think you can get caught in a bit of a rut with your thinking on race analysis. It happened to me a couple of years ago, and I had a break for about a year. I’m pretty lucky that my job is quite a good one and I managed to talk them into putting me on a few computer courses that would help me with the horses in the future and benefit work, in a very small way.

Perhaps, branching out into another field of research might reinvigorate you?

[Formath]

Hi Artemis,<br>It happens to us all.<br>I have to admit I stick to old notions, ‘Never bet on the Flat until after the Guineas meeting’ and ‘Don’t bet where you identify more than 2 dangers’.

Considering RPR today I opted for 2 better class races over the jumps where not more than 2 runners are within 5 points of the top-rated. Then I priced up the ratings for each runner, finally allowing for an over-round of 115% in both races to identify ‘realistic’ odds.

2.30 Ludlow<br>Sunley Shines – 100/30 fair odds, 11/4 realistic odds<br>(2/1 was the best offer on the book I could see so not a bet)

4.00 Wetherby<br>Hautclan – 95/40, 2/1 (on offer 9/4)<br>Mister Apple’s – 9/2, 4/1 (on offer 6’s)<br>(Mister A was the one for me staking as 4/1 for a return of 100)

I don’t suppose that helps a lot but just a way of saying ‘keep the faith’ with your chosen ratings.<br>

(Edited by Formath at 8:48 pm on April 29, 2007)

[Artemis]

Thanks Formath. I’ll let the old intuition have a bit of free play for a while and see where it takes me. I’m still looking forward to Newmarket next week, so not too despondent. I’ve been at the game too long for that.

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