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RATINGS METHOD USING RP ONLINE
It’s been about five months since I last bought the Racing Post. I have been working out my RP related ratings using only the RP website which is free at the moment. Most of the information I used to extract from the paper can also be had from the website, although it is necessary to open quite a few pages to get at it. In case anyone is interested, or is doing something similar, I have outlined my present ratings method below.
Each race has a BASE rating. This is the top-rated Racing Post Rating(RPR) MINUS 10. This figure is useful for assessing the value of Topspeed ratings(TS) and recent RPR ratings.
The Method<br>The basic rating for each horse is the adjusted RPR , or you can use any other recognised form rating on the 0 to 140 scale.<br>I then add points under various headings to this figure for each horse. <br>The headings are:<br>1.RPR, rating last time out in last 60 days<br>2.Topspeed(TS), best rating on today’s surface(turf or AW)<br>3.TS, best rating in last 60 days on today’s surface<br>4.Number of races run so far(up to 3) + Form figures(1,2,3 or 0) for last 3 races + course wins + distance wins(flat 7f or more, jumps 2m 2f or more)<br>5.Age( flat,7 or older, jumps 10 or older)<br>6.Jockey riding today<br>7.Jockey if they have ridden horse in last 3 runs<br>8.The Draw bias, if applicable
Points are awarded as follows:<br>1.If last RPR in last 60 days > BASE, award 1 or 2pts.<br>2.If TS best rating > BASE, award 1 or 2pts<br>3.If TS best rating in last 60 days >BASE, award 2 or 3 pts<br>4.Number of races run<br> 1 race award 6pts, 2 award 4pts, 3 award 2pts, 4 or more no points<br>Form figures<br>A winner last time out, award 2pts<br>A winner in last three races, award 1pt<br>No wins in last 3 races, no points<br>Course winner award 2 or 3 pts depending on the course<br>Distance winner award 1pt<br>5.Age: Turf, 7 or 8 deduct 1pt, 9 or over, deduct 2pts<br> Jumps, 10 or 11 deduct 1pt, 12 or over, deduct 2pts<br>6.Jockey riding today scores between 0 and 4pts according to my estimation of their ability.<br>7.If the jockey has ridden the horse once in its last three runs, award 1pt: twice in its last three runs, award 2pts.<br>8.The draw bias has a maximum range of between +3pts and -3pts<br>The maximum number of points available is 29.<br>To get my rating figure for each horse, I add its score to its basic rating(adjusted RPR ).<br>You then have a ratings figure for each horse which will be its RPR plus the added points. <br>For betting purposes, I usually start with the top-rated and work my way through. At this point, you need to consider things like the going, how the betting market is moving and also you have to look closely at the form of each horse. If I haven’t made a fairly confident selection by the time I’ve considered those horses within 5 points of the top-rated, I’d be struggling to have a bet in the race.<br>For maiden races, you can substitute places for wins in part 5, except you cannot award points for course and distance.
The method is similar to the one I was using for the newspaper edition of the Racing Post. It is probably a little more time – consuming because you don’t have the newspaper to use as your notepad. If you are adept with Excel, you can use it as a notepad as well as a spreadsheet to total the ratings points.
I’m not advocating anyone to use exactly the same approach, but there is scope for anyone who wants to develop their own ratings based method. Everyone will have their own preferences and prejudices.
The Best of the Ratings
For a few weeks, I’m going to post selections based on the ratings. This is mainly for interest as I think it would be difficult under the present SP system to make a profit unless you are able to get on at the recommended prices(which cannot be guaranteed to decent stakes). The last time I posted selections, I was considerably in the red to level stakes at SP. I’m hoping for better things over the next few weeks.
Monday July 16th.
Changeable going is the great enemy of form and speed ratings. On heavy going, you might as well throw away any form on ground that is not recorded on these stamina sapping conditions.
My main bet today is at Ayr where I expect the ground to be good – Turftrax have the going at 10(good to firm) and the RP predict good(good to soft in places), so we’ll wait and see.
The ground will not matter to either of the best rated horses in the 5f sprint at 4.00(Class 2 h’cap).
Gallery Girl(rated 129) should set a good pace from stall 1(far side) and shouldn’t be far away.
I prefer Turn On The Style(130), who ran a cracking race on friday at Newmarket. The time was very good indeed, although it wasn’t as good a race as today’s contest. D Holland takes the ride and if he can avoid missing the break, he should have the pace to win this hot sprint. About 7/1or better.The banker bet for a lot of people today will be Fourteenth(110 in the 7.00 Windsor. This horse is comfortably clear in the ratings and the opposition looks run of the mill. This horse looks almost certain to improve and could be a class above these.(min price 2/1, only 13/8 at present)
The Ayr race was run on softish ground and they nearly all came over to the stands side(high draw). Both Gallery Girl(20/1, 2nd) and Turn On The Style(9/2f, 4th) were placed behind the fairly comfortable winner, Fullandby.At Windsor, Fourteenth went off at a backable price, 11/4jf. The money came for Camps Bay, 11/4jf and the market confidence him was justified as he won quite comfortably from his main market rival. Two bets, Two losers. [/color:zi581ep7]
Tuesday July 17th.
Heavy at Beverley where I am interested in the 3.15
Medici Pearl 109, Lemon Silk 107, Apache Dawn 105.
All three have form on this type of ground and so much depends here on the run of the race. I’ve decided to leave this one alone because further rain could turn this into a real slog.
At Yarmouth 7.55, a decent listed race for mares and fillies. Good to firm expected.
Marzelline 125, Yaqeen 124, Mango Mischief 122, Sexy Lady 121.
I’m going for Marzelline at a decent price(about 10/1). Her form is not as solid as Yaqeen, but I’m banking on her to improve enough to win this race. Yaqeen is a big danger having ran well at Royal Ascot behind the facile winner, Indian Ink.
At Beverley, the ground was heavy as expected and Medici Pearl won at 11/4.
In the Yarmouth race, Yaqeen ran out a very comfortable winner (5/4f). Marzelline(17/2 from 11/1)) had every chance, but never really got into the race. No excuses and will be hard to place on this showing from an official handicap rating(OHR) of 102. Losing run three. [/color:nkyjflwi]Wednesday 18 July
The interesting race today is the 5f sprint at Catterick (good to soft, probably drying out)
Valley Of The Moon 108, Ronnie Howe 102, Mambo Spirit 101, Just Joey 101, Bookiesindex Boy 101.
Valley Of The Moon is well clear on ratings, although I’m not convinced she likes it soft: her best form is on faster ground. If there is any more rain, it will be no bet. About 5/1.
It was clear from the time of the first race that the ground was soft, so I didn’t have a bet. Valley Of The Moon(4/1jf) had every chance but weakened quickly on the unsuitable ground. The time of the race wasn’t too bad for the class of race, so maybe there was another reason that she ran poorly.[/color:5u821fzy]
Thursday June 19th
Rock Anthem(107)looks very solid in the Sandown 8.20. Could be a bit better than these. Warm Embraces(98) is not that highly rated, but also looks to be improving and is my idea of the danger About 7/2 and will probably shorten.
My best bet isSofia’s Star(113) in the Folkestone 7.00. Has Aaim To Storm(105) to beat.Was confidently backed to win well last time and should improve and win again today. take 2/1+
The 7.30 and 8.35 races at the same meeting were worth a look, although both appear too open to get involved.
Rock Anthem(3/1) was held up and caught out by the slow pace, so never got into the race. Not written off.
I’m mystified by the poor showing by Sofia’s Star(9/4) who was beaten a furlong out. Maybe I got the form wrong from his last race. Two losers and the losing sequence stretches to five. [/color:3jgjt0jg]
Friday 20 July
Beware, beware and thrice beware. The heavy rains are on the way(again). Do not bet until you are sure of the state of the ground. I have a short list for today, but none are particularly strong fancies except perhaps Off The Record(112) in the 7.35 at Pontefract. If it rains there, which seems highly likely, we have to assume that this decent sprinter can handle soft ground and the only evidence we have is the horse’s excellent record at Southwell – a course that usually favours those who are soft ground specialists on turf. I’ll pass on the day and join the queue for Harry Potter.
Saturday 21 July
Uncertainties about the going at Newmarket make backing anything a guessing game until you are sure of the ground. If Haydock goes ahead, it will be a real slog for the horses. I’ve had a few Scoop 6 bets for fun and that’s it for the day.
Sunday July 22
If Redcar goes ahead, the only race of any quality is the 6f sprint handicap at 3.30.
Provided it doesn’t get too soft, River Thames(105) looks like a penalty kick against the likes of Prince Namid(100) and the mud loving Paris Bell(100). Will be very short and no value, so a race best watched.A surprise winner, Tamagin at 28/1, made all. The very well supported River Thames 5/6fav could only manage 4th place after being steadied and given too much to do by Spencer. That’s racing. A lot of burnt fingers I imagine.[/color:3cl1d7qu]
Two bets today.
At Ayr, the best race is the opener, a 2yo maiden which looks a match between Gothenburg(111) and Nawaaff(110). The former has more room for improvement, but Nawaaff is a much better price and hasn’t done much wrong. Nawaaff at around 7/2.
My next is an outsider. Noblissima(102) in the 7.50 Windsor, isn’t top rated, but the better rated horses all have questions marks against them on my reading of the form. Marozi(107) was reportedly unsuited by soft ground on his debut, although still ran quite well. King’s Bastion(105) has had plenty of chances and appears moderate. Dream Scheme(104) has possibilities and is a danger, while Oi Vay Joe needs to recapture last season’s form to be worth considering. Noblissima has shown consistent form at this level on soft ground and although she is vulnerable to improvers, 14/1 looks a really good price.
Gothenburg (10/11) won the Ayr race comfortably. The Windsor race, which I didn’t see, was won impressively by the well backed Royal Rocks(102),(3/1). The gelding had no form on soft ground, but he certainly has now. Noblissima (10/1) led for 3f then dropped away, probably not good enough. The losing run stretches to seven.[/color:1ny9cjh7]
Tuesday 24 July
I looked at the feature race at Musselburgh, the mile handicap (7.50), but they really are an inconsistent and iffy group of horses to bet on and ratings in this type of race are not much help. So much depends on which version of each horse turns up today and if everything drops right for that horse. H Harrison(104) is best at 7f and prefers faster ground, while Regent’s Secret(102) needs a good gallop and ideally an uphill finish. Best watched, I feel.
Fremen won well at 14/1, had bits of decent form but never runs two races alike. Is even entered for a claiming race this weekend. Will probably turn up, start favourite and…. who knows?[/color:2vdmu1aj]
Wednesday 25 July
Apart from a few 2yos in races with many unknown quantities, the best rated horse today is Shevchenko(110) in the Sandown 7.40.
The Thirsk maiden he won in May didn’t look anything special, although the time was very good. He could be a little bit better than his current mark, and the opposition here is not that strong. Perfect Star(107) looks the main danger. I think the layers have got this race priced up correctly and unless there is any big change in the odds of the two horses above, it is a watching race only for me.Shevchenko(7/4f) won readily from Perfect Star(4/1), the pair finishing clear. Both look worth following in the near future.[/color:q4ucptx5]
The going at York will be testing, which is just right for Pride Of Nation(136) in the 7.30. Has run some good races in top handicaps and there are doubts about the opposition. A fairly confident selection at 3/1.
I also like Muthabara(119) in the 3.20 at Sandown at around 2/1.Showed a good change of pace to win on debut and could be very useful.
Finally, Eglevski(121) has a big chance in the 5.00 at Sandown. Shaping up as a useful stayer, seems to have been found an ideal opportunity. About 11/4.
Pride Of Nation won comfortably at 11/4f.
Muthabara came from a long way back and again showed a useful turn of foot to win decisively at 11/4f. She should win some good races.
Eglevski(4/1f), unplaced, was put in his place by Tempelstern who seemed to revel in the softening ground.
A profitable day, at last. [/color:1s2x875p]
We might have to wait until the first race before we know how the ground is riding at Ascot, so I’m leaving a few of my bets till later today.
One horse that will not be bothered by the ground is Enjoy The Moment 119 in the 3.55. He has proved his ability to win on soft, although he was reportedly suited by firmer ground and he stays as far as any horse in training.Minimum Odds 5/2
.
Latest news from the course suggests the ground remains soft, which points me in the direction of Reverence 133 in the opening sprint. Doubtless he has bigger targets in the coming months, but he is a class above the opposition. Balthazaar’s Gift 137 has very solid handicap form, but he might find this grade too much today. Easy to back at 9/2.
My only other interest today is Treat 127who has by far the best form in the 3.20, but has been frustrating in her last few races. I’m taking a chance that this strong strapping filly can gallop through the soft ground and be too good for her rivals. About 5/1.
I can find reasons to oppose most of the day’s top-rated horses. I expect it to remain good to soft at Ascot and yesterday’s racing hinted that high numbers will be favoured in big fields on the straight course.
The only confident bet I’m having today is Wise Dennis 133 in the Totesport International. Suited by a bit of give, still well handicapped and certain to get the strong pace he needs. My only reservation is the draw in the lower half because the field could split. He needs holding up, so he could be taken either side. King Of Argos 134 is ideally drawn, but he has his quirks and prefers faster ground. If it dries up, He’s worth a saver. Both are about 9/1.
In the King George, Dylan Thomas and Maraahel share the top rating of 143. The former is better on faster ground and the latter seems a few pounds short of the very top class. Scorpion 139 will like the ground but might not get the strong gallop needed to bring his stamina into play. No bet.
Tybalt 131 is clear top in the 3.10 but his trainer has stated that he must have decent ground to show his best, which puts me off. Nothing else appeals in the race.
At York, Eagle Mountain(3.15), a class horse, should win and Fullandby(3.50) has his conditions but neither looks a tempting bet on really heavy ground.
It appears that the going at Ascot was good rather than good to soft, although there was a headwind which made the times appear relatively slow for good ground and these horses.
Wise Dennis never got into it, so maybe the ground was too quick for him.
Dylan Thomas won impressively, which again indicates quicker ground.At York, Eagle Mountain was a stone plus below his best for no apparent reason, and Fullandby was almost brought to a halt when he ran into the back of horses bunching and weaving about in front of him. The favourite in the race did a ‘Hamlet’ and stood still in the stalls. I sometimes wonder why people bet on horses. They are about as predictable as women. [/color:107j2guk]
The 5f sprint at Ascot(2.50) looks too difficult. Top-rated is Fantasy Believer 130, but I am doubtful about his ability to win at 5f in this grade these days. I think this race is all about speed, so the likes of Hogmaneigh and Green Manilishi would be more like my idea of a winner.
One to watch.Polar Circle 128 is a progressive filly and is my only bet today at around 4/1. Suited by 6f and goes on any ground, she wasn’t beaten very far in the Queen Mary at Ascot over an inadequate 5f.
I also considered John Terry in the 2.15, but he scrambled home last time and he may be a difficult customer who needs very strong handling. He’s got that today(J Murtagh), but the doubts remain.
The unconsidered Stoneacre Lad (66/1) won easily. A result that leaves form students scratching their heads despite the fact that this was a handicap. He’s had plenty of races, yet has never promised to win a race as competitive as this …..and so easily.However, there was no fluke about this: this was a solid performance and it will be repeated in the future and I wouldn’t underestimate this horse.
Polar Circle either ran a stinker or something was wrong with her. The BBC pundits were inclined to blame the ground even though the filly had already won on soft ground. 2yos are usually fairly consistent, so I tend to think that she was not herself.
John Terry was given a good ride but dropped out tamely. The winner, Group Captain mugged Mull Of Dubai on the line and both look like they will be worth following if the ground doesn’t dry up too much. [/color:a83i7a0x]
Monday July 30
Nothing of any interest today with only moderate racing. There are a few decent 2yo races, but so many unknown quantities that they are best watched unless you know something. Goodwood this week, great racing and atmosphere, although not the best place to have faith in the form book.
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