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RP Ratings Revisited

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  • #1778
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    It’s been a while since I posted anything here on the ratings methods I use. Since my last post, over a year ago, I’ve made a few significant changes, although the basic method is much the same. Over the next few weeks, as time permits, I’ll be posting details of the methods I use with selections using these methods. I’ll also be keeping a profit and loss account of these selections at SP, although most of the selections are available at better prices earlier in the day.

    I’m not concerned about anyone copying these methods – they are probably too complicated and time-consuming for most people to attempt themselves. Nevertheless, I’m happy to receive suggestions about improving things or making the method easier to use.

    To start the ball rolling, there are two bets today.

    Ripon 3.20 FANTASY BELIEVER 114 is just ahead of Knot in Wood 113, Ice Plant 111 and Fullandby 111. Looks decent value at around 6/1. NR

    3.50 TROUBLE MOUNTAIN 102 often comes out on top in these ratings and obliges from time to time, so at around 9/1 is worth playing. unpl 12/1

    Stakes 1pt    Loss 1pt

    (Edited by Artemis at 9:16 am on Aug. 8, 2006)

    #61554
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    This method involves awarding horses points for form(collateral ratings and speed ratings) and a number of other positive factors. The final rating is on the same scale as used by the Racing Post Ratings(RPR), Topspeed Ratings(TS), Official Ratings(OR) and other professional handicapping organisations such as Timeform and Superform.

    This scale for flat racing ranges from around 30(very moderate horses) to 130(top-class), and for jump racing is between 70 and 170. My own ratings tend to be  higher than those you will see published in the Racing Post because they add on points for factors other than form such as a horse’s record, jockeyship, draw etc.

    I have a minimum qualifying rating for betting purposes of 100+(flat) and 130+ (jumps), so I’m only looking at races where the top-rated RPR is 90+(flat) and 120+(jumps).

    Today, the racing is moderate and there are only two horses that are possible bets. Devon Flame 102, (Bath 3.45) and Spaceman 101(Bath 4.15). Neither of these look to be decent odds, so I’ll leave it alone today.  

    #61555
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Great to see you posting one of these again Artemis are you bored by any chance ?

    :biggrin:

    #61556
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Never bored, Dave. Maybe a bit tired of all the backbiting on the main forum. Also, I’ve made quite a few changes which I’ll be outlining as time permits.

    Four selections today.

    Newcastle 2.30 ALWAYS BEST 102  unpl 4/1

    Brighton 4.10 PILLARS OF WISDOM 105  unpl 7/2

    Pontefract 4.20 EBN REEM 101 won 6/4

    Kempton 9.20 OPERA WRITER 104 unpl 11/2

    <br>Stakes 4pts      Loss 1.5 pts

    Running Total  Stakes 5pts   Loss 2.5pts

    (Edited by Artemis at 10:52 am on Aug. 10, 2006)<br>

    (Edited by Artemis at 6:39 pm on Aug. 10, 2006)

    #61557
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    .A bit more meat on the bones……

    My starting point for compiling these ratings is a paper copy of the Racing Post. All of the information I use is there in easily accessible form. RP interactive probably contains most of the same information, but isn’t as easy to use.

    The basic components of the ratings method are:

    1.Racing Post Ratings(RPR) and Topspeed(TS) ratings as they appear in the Postdata table and ratings tables.<br>2.Form from the last three(or two, sometimes) races for each horse.<br>3.A horse’s lifetime record containing information about wins/places/runs over course and distance and the where it finished in its last (up to 11) races.<br>4.The Draw.

    I keep my own records (often in my head!) of the relative abilities of jockeys and those courses that tend to suit particular horses.

    Points are awarded roughly as follows:<br>                           Max        Range    Average<br>RPR + TS           10+           0 to 10+      5<br>Jockey                  6             0 to 6           3<br>Horse’s Record<br>Wins/runs            2              -2 to +2       1<br>Losing run           2              -2 to +2       1<br>Course Record    4                0 to +4       1<br>Distance Record  2                0 to +2       1<br>Draw                   3               -3 to +3       0

                             29+                               12

    The ratings are added to a Base Rating which is determined from the Official Handicap Rating, OHR, (for all handicap races) and from the RPR top-rated for non-handicaps.

    For handicaps, the Base Rating is the OHR of the top-weight adjusted to 10st to bring it into line with RPR and TS. If the top-weight has an OHR of 90 and carries 9st 7lbs, the Base rating is 90+7 = 97.

    For all other races, except maidens, the Base Rating is the RPR top-rated minus 10. In maiden races, the Base Rating is the [average between the RPR top-rated and the Adjusted Average Winning Racing Post Rating] minus 10.

    RPR + TS points

    The ‘Form’ points are, for each individual horse;

    1.[Best TS rating in last 60 days – Base Rating] + [Best RPR rating – Base Rating]   If RPR is below base rating, let it equal the base rating.<br>This sum divided by 2(rounded down).

    2. If latest RPR(last 60 days) > Base Rating, Add 1 point.

    3. If latest TS rating (last 60 days) > Base Rating, Add 1 point.

    4. If Best TS rating (Any time) > Base Rating, and horse hasn’t any TS points from 1 to 3 above, Add 1 point.

    5. If a horse has had only 1 run, Add 6 points: 2 runs, 4 points: 3 runs, 2 points.

    Today’s racing is high on quantity but low on quality. There are several maidens who top-rated, but they are too short for my money.

    The 3.40 Haydock looks interesting.

    Charlie Cool     118 WON 5/2fav<br>Wind Star         116<br>Elec. Warrior     115<br>Count Trev.      114

    At the prevailing odds, I have to go with ELECTRIC WARRIOR, who could be around 16/1 by post time, but is much bigger on the exchanges this morning.<br>unpl 20/1

    Stakes 1pt  Loss 1pt

    Running Total Stakes 6pts  Loss 3.5pts

    (Edited by Artemis at 6:42 pm on Aug. 10, 2006)

    <br>(Edited by Artemis at 6:44 pm on Aug. 10, 2006)<br>

    (Edited by Artemis at 7:14 pm on Aug. 15, 2006)

    #61558
    mikely64
    Member
    • Total Posts 23

    Hi Artemis,

    best thing I have read in quite a while and is similar to what I am trying to perfect but as you stated most people wont follow this method because of the time involved and I must admit to falling in that trap myself.

    I look forward to any more postings you may have to offer and if you don’t mind a few questions from me.

    Mikely

    #61559
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Hi mikely

    Don’t mind any questions and will be filling the gaps as time allows over the next week or so.

    I think a lot of people use a similar approach, each giving more weight to their own preferences than others might. It can be time consuming, yet I’m sure you will find your own shortcuts – it gets easier with usage, like most things. I’ve made a few changes, so I’m still getting used to implementing them.

    #61560
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    You might find that there are races where horses move between the AW and Turf and consequently have no TS rating at all in the Postdata tables. In such cases, I improvise by using only the RPR X2(up to a maximum value of 5) as that horse’s form points.

    Today, I had 5 possible bets on my short list. None of the prices are very appealing at the moment, but I would expect some profit, so here they are:

    Sedg 5.00 MCQUEEN 11/4?<br>Newm 6.45 TOBOSA 11/8<br>           7.45 KHYBER KIM 9/4<br>           8.15 SEAMUS SHINDIG 4/1<br>Hayd   7.00 BOREAL APPLAUSE 3/1 <br>"nd 2/1f, won 11/8, 2nd 3/1, unpl 4/1f, unpl

    Stakes 5pts    Loss 2.63pts

    Running Total <br>Stakes 11pts   Loss 6.13pts

    (Edited by Artemis at 9:55 am on Aug. 12, 2006)

    #61561
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8818

    Interesting stuff Artemis. How long have you been operating your system and have the recent improvements meant better results?

    #61562
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Cormack,

    About 15 years, with a few breaks, but I’ve always come back to it.

    The recent changes – I hope they are improvements – are an attempt to simplify the method without losing the method’s effectiveness. I’ve also reduced the weight given to Topspeed ratings, using them as an endorsement of the Racing Post Rating rather than as a separate entity.

    Last summer was excellent, but this year has been a struggle so far.

    #61563
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Today’s ratings based selections:

    Hayd 3.20    ANNA PAVLOVA 12/1<br>         3.50    BLUEBOK 16/1<br>Newm 3.40  PAPER TALK  10/1<br><br>NR, Unpl 11/1, Won 9/1

    Stakes  2pts     Profit 8pts

    Running Total

    Stakes 13pts    Profit 1.87pts

    (Edited by Artemis at 11:36 am on Aug. 13, 2006)

    #61564
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    The best racing is at the Curragh. I don’t do too much with the Irish racing – you have to work out the TS ratings because they are not provided in the RP. If you ignore the TS ratings, you can just add the positive factor points to the RPR of each horse.

    There are a couple of possible bets on home soil.

    Ling 3.00 MCNAIROBI (should be about 11/4)won 9/4

    Leic 3.50  Dream Theme     116<br>                Ans Bach             114<br>                Guest Connect    114<br>                Power P               111<br>                Pearly Wey          111<br>                Scrummage          110

    At early prices, I would recommend both DREAM THEME (9/2) and GUEST CONNECTIONS (12/1).<br>won 13/8, 3rd 9/2, but there were 4NRs

    Stakes 3pts   Profit  2.87pts

    Running Total

    Stakes 16pts  Profit 4.65pts

    (Edited by Artemis at 11:35 am on Aug. 14, 2006)

    #61565
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Two bets today:

    Thirsk 6.25

    River Kirov         103<br>Toy Top              102

    River Kirov looks like going off at around 5/2, so I prefer TOY TOP at about 8/1.

    Windsor 7.15

    Obe Gold          114<br>Idle Power        112<br>Blue Tomato      110<br>Greenslades      109<br>Kostar               109

    OBE GOLD appeals at about 5/1.

    Unpl 10/1, unpl 4/1

    Stakes 2pts   Loss 2pts

    Running Total

    Stakes 18pts  Profit 2.65pts  

    (Edited by Artemis at 9:47 am on Aug. 15, 2006)

    #61566
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I had a few short-listed, but the prices are unappealing.

    #61567
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I’m trying to fill in details of how I arrive at the points from the factors other than RPR and TS, so here is the first:

    1. Jockeyship.

    I rate all jockeys on a scale from 0 to 4pts

    These are off the top of my head, so I might have missed a few. I’m sure everyone will have their own preferences.

    4pts     K Fallon, A P McCoy, R Walsh, B Geraghty

    3pts     J P Spencer, J Egan, R L Moore, M Dwyer, <br>            R Winston, M J Kinane, J Murtagh, L Dettori, <br>            A Munro, S Sanders, K Darley, K McEvoy, <br>            A Dobbin, G Lee, T J Murphy.

    Most of the other top jockeys are on 2pts with a number of ‘journeymen’ and good apprentices on 1pt.<br>Apprentices who have yet to make their mark and most amateur riders(with a few exceptions) are on 0pts.

    I also award up to 2pts for a jockey’s previous experience of the horse(last three races only)

    If the jockey has ridden the horse 1 out of 3……1pt<br>                                           or 2 or 3 out of 3…….2pts

    In total jockey points can amount to 6, but this would be unusual – K Fallon or R Walsh riding one he’d ridden at least twice on the horse’s last 3 outings.

    If there are late jockey changes, these can make a big difference to a horse’s rating, but thankfully it doesn’t happen very often.

    (Edited by Artemis at 7:44 pm on Aug. 15, 2006)

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