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A few long shots at Windsor.
3.05 VIOLETTE
3.40 COME ON JONNY
4.10 KRUGGERAND<br>     CHARLIE TOKYO
These look good value according to my ratings.
A blank day.
Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts
Running Total
Stakes 31pts Loss 19.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:02 pm on Nov. 4, 2006)
Lingfield ratings(with SELECTIONS)
1.30 COOL STING 92, What Do You Know 90, Came Back 88
2.00 Penny From Heaven 88, Muffett’s Dream 83
2.30 PERSIAN EXPRESS 106, Felicitous 105, All Quiet 105
3.00 Kyles Prince 107, Lisathedaddy 104, GIG HARBOUR 103, Polish Power 103
3.30 Woodnook 106, MARKO JADEO 104, Hammer Of The Gods 104
4.00 LADY BAHIA 94, Overwing 94, Heaven’s Walk 94, Madame Medusa 93, Ever Cheerful 93, Smiddy Hill 93.
One winner at 4/1, the others nearer last than first. Level on the day.
(Edited by Artemis at 6:10 pm on Nov. 5, 2006)
Quite moderate racing at Wolverhampton, but a number of ratings-based selections:
2.30 SOL ROJO
3.40 RISK FREE
4.45 BIENHEREUX
5.15 SECOND REEF
Other top-rated horses:
1.20 Cumbrian Knight<br>1.55 Herotozero<br>3.05 Social Rhythm<br>4.15 Garden Society<br>
A blank day again.
Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts
Running Total
Stakes 40pts Loss 23.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:30 pm on Nov. 6, 2006)
I’ve looked at Wolverhampton and it’s hard to recommend anything with confidence. I’m applying the ratings to these lower grade flat races for interest. They will not be as effective as those for better grade racing, but they should still produce reasonable results.
Wolverhampton
4.20 TIVERS SONG
4.50 MUSICMEASTROPLEASE
A second and a third, but no profit
Stakes 2pts Loss 2pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:41 pm on Nov. 7, 2006)
Wolverhampton
1.20 TRINCULO
3.55 MOUNTAIN PASS
A loser and a NR.
Running Total
Stakes 43pts Loss 26.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:40 pm on Nov. 8, 2006)
A little better on the AW today. Confidence is higher than earlier in the week.
These four are all top-rated and at decent prices.
Wolverhampton<br>5.20 STOIC LEADER at 14/1
5.50 CONSONANT at 6/1
Lingfield<br>2.50 POSTAGE STAMPE at 8/1
3.50 HASSAAD at 7/1
)Only managed one second with the rest unplaced.
Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts
Running Total
Stakes 47pts Loss 30.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 10:02 am on Nov. 10, 2006)
I seem to be sinking into the abyss with this AW racing, but I’ve been down this road many times and always recovered. The jumps racing seems to be producing lots of short – priced favourites, which probably wouldn,t do me much good either.
The Cheltenham meeting is much better fare than anything else today, although there are a few decent AW handicaps.
Cheltenham
1.20 HOT WELD 151, Extoso 148, Yes My Lord 147
1.55 Cuan Na Grai 145, Kalderon 144, OFAREL D’AIRY 144, Orpen Wide 143
2.30 ARMATURK 170, Tysou 169, Nyrche 168, Rubberdubber 166
3.05 SPOTTHEDIFFERENCE 163, Royal Auclair 159.
A 5/1 winner and a gallant 2nd, two unplaced
Stakes 4pts profit 2pts
Running Total
Stakes 49pts Loss 28.63pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:14 pm on Nov. 10, 2006)
Cheltenham
1.05 Natal 172H/ 154C, Fair Along 172H, PENZANCE 167H, 154C.<br>(H = hurdles form, C= chase form)
1.35 FROM DAWN TO DUSK 143, Armariver 142, According To Pete 142, Pedrobob 140.
2.10 IT TAKES TIME 167, Cornish Sett 165, Fundamentalist 162.
2.45 Detroit City 164, O’TOOLE 161, Sweet Wake 156.
Fontwell
1.50 Cowboyboots 136, WAYNESWORLD 133.
A blank day
Stakes 5pts Loss 5pts
Running Total
Stakes 54pts Loss 33.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 9:36 am on Nov. 13, 2006)
Lingfield 3.20
RESPLENDENT NOVA 111, Perfect Story 110, Ninth House 110
Southwell 3.30
HEATHYARD’S PRIDE 109, St Savarin 105, Baan 103.<br>Two seconds, one just beaten, the other quite comfortably.
Stakes 2pts Loss 2pts
Running Total<br>Stakes 56pts Loss 35.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 7:00 pm on Nov. 13, 2006)
sorry mate but i don’t understand your 5 pts loss yesterday when detroit city & cowboyboots both won
Knockroe,
I don’t always back the top-rated(maybe I should), but look for the horse which looks the best value at the time I consult the prices, which was about 11.30 am on Sunday.
I work on a crude measure of 1 ratings point = 4% probability points as a guide to finding ‘value bets’
If I had left my recommendations to off time, my choice of what to back based on the ratings might have been different. It depends a lot on how the market moves.
Backing the top-rated(or anything at all) regardless of the price is not a strategy that I could defend. It doesn’t make sense because in an ideal world every bet has to be price related at the time it is made. I usually place a few Lucky 15 bets around 10 am and then leave it for the rest of the day, although the optimum strategy is to leave your bets till very late and only back singles win only.
Wolverhampton
3.45 Briannsta 99, Blue Maeve 99, SOVEREIGNTY 99, Johnston’s Diamond 97.
Folkestone
2.40 GARDE CHAMPETRE 150C/162H, Handy Money 142C/145H, Aztec Warrior 144H, New Entic 142H.
3.10 ROOSTER’S REUNION 140, Spinaround 138, Jericho III 135.
A blank day. By the time of the off in the 3.10, Jericho III, the eventual winner, would have been the bet at the prevailing odds. In the other races, the original selection was still the bet at the off.
Stakes 3pts Loss 3pts
Running Total 59pts Loss 38.63pts
It’s starting to get embarassing, but that’s racing. I have returned worse figures than these over a similar period.
(Edited by Artemis at 7:20 pm on Nov. 14, 2006)
Hexham
1.50 CHICKAPEAKRAY 139, Wild Cane Ridge 134, Red Scally 133
2.20 Kinburn 153, ALEXANDERTHEGREAT 151, Catch The Perk 148
2.50 Twelve Paces 139, FLEETFOOT MAC 134, See You There 133.
Southwell
3.00 Matuza 111, Stoneacre Lad 110, Dancing Mystery 110, ANFIELD DREAM 109.
A blank day.
Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts
Running Total
Stakes 63pts Loss 42.63pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 4:00 pm on Nov. 15, 2006)
Artemis,
I think racing is just like life – plenty of ups and downs!
We just have to plug away.
I am working on a "lay system" at the moment and the results are quite encouraging. No doubt, it will turn and bite me soon!
Regards- Matron<br>:cool:
Definitely, Matron. Onwards and upwards.
Wolverhampton
4.20 Will He Wish
5.50 Writ
Market Rasen
1.40 Karathena
2.40 King’s Bounty
Very disappointing. Nothing placed.
Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts
Running Total
Stakes 67pts Loss 46.63pts
(Edited by Artemis at 10:20 am on Nov. 17, 2006)
I’ve concentrated on Ascot today.
Key: B= Bumper Form, C = Chase Form, F = Flat Form, <br>H = Hurdles Form, O= Official Rating.
Recommended bets are in UPPER CASE
1.00 The King Of Angels 125H, Pantalaimon 119B, The Hollow Bottom 118B
1.35 All Star 139H, Nippy Des Mottes 137H/129C, Swing Bill 136O, Flying Enterprise 135H/125C.
2.10 Bustan 139F, Hawridge Star 134H/122F, Prime Number 133F, Rustler 130F.
2.45 TURGEONEV 145, Briscoe Place 142, Bishop’s Bridge 142.
3.20 Harry’s Dream 153, Lou Du Moulin Mas 152, Harris Bay 149.
3.55 Tarlac 143, FAIT LE JOJO 140, Nation State 137.
So, just two for today. It will be interesting to see how the other races turn out, but they look very tricky with form from flat, hurdles, chases being hard to compare using just numbers. <br>Two seconds, but no hard luck stories. The winners, except the 50/1, were all in the top 3 rated, so I feel encouraged.
Stakes 2pts Loss 2pts
Running Total
Stakes 69pts Loss 48.63pts
Despite feeling encouraged, I realise that there is the proverbial ‘mountain to climb’ to bring this month back into profit. The cold reality is that I will most probably take much,much longer to rescue myself from such a very poor run. Working on 10% profit, which is optimistic, it could take about 500 bets or five months.<br>I would normally work on a bank of 200pts for single bets. If that went, I would have to give up on the ratings. As I’ve said before, this time of year is probably the poorest for profitability, but even so, I would not have anticipated being so much down in such a short time period. <br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:33 pm on Nov. 17, 2006)
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