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My ratings
Beef Or Salmon ..98<br>Iris’s Gift .. 71<br>Kauto Star .. 93<br>Kingscliff .. 75<br>L’ami .. 76<br>Ollie Magern .. 65
Beef or Salmon to win .. !
Hi
(Kauto Star – likelihood he’ll stay and evidence for that view.)
Mel Cullinan of the RPW writes……
"The step up to 3m is emphatically not expected to be a problem for Kauto Star, who was full of running last time.<br>Don’t forget, he also won a 2m3f110y in very soft ground in France when still a 4yo".
byefrom<br>carlisle
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(Edited by carlisle at 12:04 pm on Nov. 17, 2006)
hello,
There is a flaw in KAUTO STAR’s jumping that worries me greatly.<br>The horse tends to take off too early ! :( <br>If clearing the fence, it looks and always commented as a "Spectacular Jump…"<br>However as demonstarted last year at Cheltenham, his early take off led to an early landing!<br>Some commentators stated " The Sun was in his eyes.."<br>..as it was with the other 15 or so comabatants. They jumped soundly and I did not notice any of them wearing sun-glasses! :cool:
I think he will get the distance if standing up, but if you a back a horse that is termed " a brave jumper..", you have to take the chance that he will fall!!
Last season’s Betfair chase was a joke, as someone previously mentioned, 4 x fences were omitted and BEEF OR SALMON would surely have won if the full course was up for jumping.<br>I have a feeling BOS is just an ordinary horse, but with KINGSCLIFFE in decline, the uncertainty of L’AMI’s right trip, OLLIE’s erratic form…BOS looks the likely winner.
regards,
doyley
L’ami, Kingscliff and Ollie are passed over for reasons previously mentioned. Nothing to add
Iris’s gift looked far more relaxed last time and could suprise under Elsworth but its still a leap of faith to see him actually win
ill have Kauto over Beefy. Beefy may well be more pressurised than he sometimes finds on his home turf and that will again be his undoing.
I sense that Ruby and PN (sober judges for sure.,..) really believe they have something special in their hands
Assuming that Elsworth rides Iris’s Gift then you might be interested to know that his record in chases at Haydock over the last five years is 12-38 for a profit.
He can clearly ride the course and jump the fences.
If you all remember last years GC thread, the stable think a hell of a lot of this horse and it was an improved performance lto.
i really like iris’s gift. but i think after a couple of injuries his ability has dwindled. i think his best chance would be in high class handicaps, such as the welsh national.
Beef Or Salmon wins…game over.
BEEF OR SALMON (IRE)<br>10yo ch g (Michael Hourigan)
Chase starts by field size<br>12 or more runners: FP0 (0-3)<br>9-11 runners: 345U (0-4)<br>8 or fewer runners: 11111131131221121 (12-17)<br>Conclusion: he has yet to win a chase of more than eight runners.
Chase starts by class<br>Grade 1: 11F13411312P211021 (9-18)<br>Grade 2 or below: 11315U (3-6)<br>Conclusion: the majority of his chase starts have taken place at the highest level.
Summary of ideal conditions<br>When racing over fences in fields of eight or fewer runners his record is: 11111131131221121 (12-17), with all the defeats coming in Grade 1 company. He has started as favourite for the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups but was pulled up in 2005 (15 ran) and came home 11th the following year (22 ran).
monty – top notch work – can you throw in any ground considerations on those stats – there seems to be a debate out?
Bott, ground likely to be good to soft or softer which will suit. All you need to worry about is how much you can get on at 7-2 in the morning.
<br>Of course there is another set of stats you can use with Beef or Salmon. These are the results of his six runs this side of the Irish Sea :
Fell – 4th – Pulled Up – 2nd – 11th – UR
Beef or Salmon he may be in Ireland, but he’s Mince or Fishpaste over here. He had a golden opportunity in this race last year, but couldn’t take it.
But much the most interesting question raised by this thread so far is the mention of two hours analysis. What could you possibly find out that you (and the public) don’t already know about six thoroughly exposed horses that would take two hours?
Will Kauto Star stay, or more accurately, will he be fully effective at three miles. I don’t know, but I do know there was money to be made when exactly the same question was asked about War Of Attrition, Kicking King, Best Mate and others, all the way back to Desert Orchid.
AP
The two hours (a rough guide, it’s often longer if I’m compiling/analysing trends) does seem a lot but my success rate drops in direct proportion to the amount of time I spend on a race.
Yes, there is plenty evidence in the public domain on all these runners and, yes, their respective merits are all well known. The approach I take however is to work hard (and long!) on how the various pluses and minuses for each horse in relation to each other is likely to affect the winning probabilities. I don’t want to end up with ‘Kauto Star will win if he stays’. I want to end up with ‘the various probabilities around Kauto Star, taking the key factors into account and in relation to the other runners, indicate that he has a 40% chance of winning’.
However – I am well aware that people are much more successful than me (a profitable amateur) by employing methods and judgements which are based on being able to analyse with great clarity without the time consuming leg-work I do for each race I’m seriously looking to bet on.
One thing I would point out though (hopefully not defensively, not meant to be) is that the only time I really spend looking at horse racing is when I analyse races before the event. What I mean by that is that I don’t put in hours each morning browsing the form book, don’t spend hours watching racing (because of other commitments – not through choice) so I don’t pick up the intuitive feel some people get through immersion. If the hours were totalled up my intense two hours-ish per race may not be that out of sync with your own AP.<br>What I don’t possess, and envy greatly, is that clarity of thought some have which allows them to intuitively size up and have a feel for the ‘value’ without delving into hours of study. For me it comes only after I’ve immersed myself in a race, got into the guts of it and back around again. <br>Analysis paralysis, a problem in the past for me and always a worry, has, hopefully, been tempered over the years as, ironically, all the analysis has highlighted the areas not to over-analyse!! Confused? Me too!<br>
Hi
I think it’s best not to prejudge a race until you have analysed it thoroughly.  I have often dismissed a race initially, only to later…….. find a gem of a bet.
The public are losers, they fail to assign the correct significance to what they know.
They deal in 1D thought patterns.
Also manual form studying is a no no.
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 10:24 pm on Nov. 17, 2006)
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from carlisle on 9:54 pm on Nov. 17, 2006[br]Hi
I think it’s best not to prejudge a race until you have analysed it thoroughly.  I have often dismissed a race initially, only to later…….. find a gem of a bet.
The public are losers, they fail to assign the correct significance to what they know.
They deal in 1D thought patterns.
Also manual form studying is a no no.
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>(Edited by carlisle at 10:24 pm on Nov. 17, 2006)<br>
Carlisle<br> I’d be interested to know how you can analyse a race thoroughly without studying the form manually?.:)
As will be seen my approach is ratings based.
Betfair chase anticipated rating 440s <br>Beef Or Salmon 501/33<br>Lami 351/20
Briefly, the ratings take into account race values, strength of opposition and interval days between events. Each race analysed is examined producing a standard figure based on previous years wins and expected levels this occasion. Betfair race rated in region of 440.
The runner’s ratings are achieved taking the latest and best performances averaged.  Each runner’s latest 10 outings are examined. The data is web scraped and put into excel to sort the ratings. The selections are therefore not arbitary but determined by this method.
The only runner with proven rating matching the expected level is Beef Or Salmon (501) rated with best interval days between races adjudged to be in the region of  33 days.
So, Beef Or Salmon is top rated 501 with best interval period between races as 33days. Saturday’s race finds Beef running somewhat too soon  (14 days) having aruguably had a toughish race. On the other hand Lami runs best with 20days  or thereabouts between runs. Lami will run well now having had a blow only 13 days ago and will be close to the optimum interval period.
Summary: Beef Or Salmon holds the aces by virtue of the very high rating. However, Lami is expected to improve dramatically from earlier run.
Hope this is of interest folks.
Yesterday I began by looking at how recent evidence of each horses ability (as expressed by Racing Post Ratings) shaped up when I transferred that raw data into a tissue. That very basic evidence highlighted Kauto Star as the most likely winner but, when compared with actual market prices (via betfair), suggested that Beef or Salmon and Kingscliff were the two who, at first sight and without taking additional factors into account, were trading at higher odds than their potential ability suggested they should.
As highlighted yesterday my next step is to look in detail at each horses record to ascertain how certain other factors which are likely to affect the probability of each horse running to its maximum potential are likely to affect the winning probabilities for each horse.
So….
Kauto Star – as pointed out by a few people already he is clearly the key to the race in many ways. An improving horse and the clear message from the Nicholls camp that he is the real deal is not taken lightly.<br>Distance – Never ran beyond 2m4F. My own view is that he shapes as if the 3m will be fine. However this question mark must be taken into account, we can’t ignore it. Before the race, before we have actual evidence, we must assume that it reduces the probability that he will run to his max potential (of course he may improve for the xtra distance but we just don’t know for sure). Proven ability over the distance being attempted is a key indicator to the potential of a horse being able to run at or near its best. More so on the flat but still important over jumps.<br>Going – Unlikely to be a problem, has run at or near his best on Good and Soft. No negatives<br>Pace/running style – Suited by fast pace in shorter races. Remains to be seen what he’ll be best suited by over 3 miles. Usually held up near-ish pace. Again unclear what tactics will be adopted but probably similar. No negatives.<br>Improvement/deterioration – appears to be rapidly improving and performance level on a dramatic upward curve. Positive.<br>Solidity of form –  As indicated yesterday I have a problem here in this race and it is with the rating given to Kauto Star last time. His wide margin success over inferior opposition at Aintree attracted a big rating, the best rating any of the runners in this race has ever achieved. I’m not sure about that. Was his defeat of Armaturk really a better performance, in the context of today’s race, than Beef or Salmon’s Lexus chase win over War of Attrition and Hedgehunter last December? I have a huge question mark over that and will be knocking a few lbs off Kauto Star to compensate for those doubts. Experience has taught me to avoid second guessing the professional handicappers who compile these ratings on all but the occasions when I very strongly believe they are at fault. Wide margin victories, expecially at start of season when fitness not known, are notoriously hard to rate and I think this rating is out.<br>Consistency – No reason to question him.
Summary – I’ll downgrade Kauto Star’s chance by a couple of pounds due to the uncertainty on trip (I’d reduce further if he shaped like he wouildn’t stay but he looks like he may well do so). I’ll also take another two pounds off to adjust for what I believe to be a false rating for his last race (only because that, as his peak performance, this is the race I’m using to base his price on. If he’d raced to above that rating in another race then I wouldn’t be worried about him being over-rated last time).<br>  <br>I won’t go through that level of detail with every runner – just wanted to do it with that one to illustrate how I do it. It appears more laborious when set out in this way than it actually is to do. I might spend ten minutes + per key runner doing this so, in the case of this race that’s forty to fifty minutes as I’ve done the exercise for the four runners that interest me. I would seldom do detailed analysis of any more than half to 3/4 the field in bigger races to reduce wasting time.
So, the rest of them in short form –
Beef or Salmon – <br>Distance is ideal. Ground looks OK-ish but extra rain would help. His 3 mile record on Good to Soft or softer reads – 11301122111. All his wins since April 04 have come on Yielding/soft. Beaten on all 6 races on good ground since then, including on Good To Soft in this last year.The only run on GTS (likely going tomorrow) came in this race last year when he ran second to Kingscliff but ran to a very respectable 169 rating and a good topspeed rating on that occasion. His last seven ratings at the distance and good to soft or softer reads -162,171,174,169,164,174,165.  Extremely consistent. Will get the lead he needs from Ollie Magern and/or Kingscliff.<br>Noting the comments made earlier regarding his performances in the UK. These do cause one to stop and think, I agree. 2 of the 6 performances were rated 169. The other completed race, the unplaced Gold Cup , 155. He fell and unseated early on in two of the other races and we had the dismal PU in another Gold Cup. Not a glittering record admittedly but not exactly the downright failure that seems to be the accepted view.<br>I’m comfortable that the ratings attributed to him are solid. Good collaterall form to support them and plenty evidence.<br>Neither improving nor deteriorating on known evidence.<br><br>Summary – The only adjustment needed is to drop him 2lbs on basis of ground unless ground is Soft by time racing starts tomorrow in which case I’ll leave as is.
Kingscliff –  <br>All racing at 3 miles to 3m 3F. Won over this range. Record over 3 miles 2212 and rated 168,168,169,162.<br>Record on GTS – 121 ratings 143,168,170<br>Record on soft or worse – 14224 ratings 168,tailed off, 160,162,147<br>Appears to be on downgrade (last 4 runs have shown a gradual decline since this race last year).<br>Races up with pace or leads. Shouldn’t be too inconvenienced if relinquishing front running role to Ollie Magern nor if forced to take it up early if, as expected, old Ollie isn’t up to it.<br>Formerly very consistent but now appearing possibly quirky.<br>Basis of best rating sound.
Summary – I’ll drop my original assessment of him by 7 lbs (the assessment I used for the original tissue) on basis of his poor recent runs and apparent deterioration. A case might be made for dropping him more than that.
Finally, phew, L’Ami – <br>Another interesting contender. Generally been running in excess of three miles but his Jt best run (along with his Gold Cup 4th) was a close second in the RP Chase to Innox. 4 of his last 5 runs have been on good ground. The second to Innox was on soft though so ground should not inconvenience. <br>Very consistent, not necessarily on upgrade though (160,163,163, 161 on last 4 meaningful runs). Young enough to be a potential improver but no recent evidence of that.<br>Infrequent winner however (3 wins from 30 runs) and succession of bold but unsuccessful runs leaves a ? with me.
Summary – no need for any adjustment to his rating.
So assuming Good To Soft ground my adjusted tissue now reads (betfair odds in brackets) –
Beef or Salmon 15/8 (100/30)<br>Kauto Star 2/1 (6/4)<br>Kingscliff 11/2 (15/2)<br>L’Ami 11/2 (11/2)
On Soft ground BOS will carry extra confidence.
Beef or Salmon 13/8 (100/30)<br>Kauto Star 9/4 (6/4)<br>Kingscliff 11/2 (15/2)<br>L’Ami 11/2 (11/2)
(numbers rounded which is why Kingscliff and L’Ami remain unchanged – their odds are slightly higher on soft ground but still nearer 11/2 than 6/1).
So, after all that, where does it leave me?
I think the market has Kauto Star too short. Clearly a possible star, on a sharp upgrade and one to be opposed with a little reluctance but BOS will provide a very stern test on all known evidence. BOS’s 3 mile form is of the very highest order and he has the scalps of three Gold Cup winners, including last time out, under his belt to prove it. The small-ish field will suit BOS and Kauto Star will have to be every bit the star they think he is if he is to overcome the Irish horse and win this. I don’t think the market reflects the uncertainty over trip and/or the likelihood that his last performance was very difficult to rate accurately.
Kingscliff, while shorter with my tissue than the market, is a swerve due to huge doubts over his current ability to return the type of rating necessary to win this.
L’Ami looks accurately priced up.<br> <br>On GTS I have BOS as holding a 35% chance of winning while the market gives him a 23% chance. A 12% cushion in my favour. On soft ground I have his chance up to 38.5% and now have over 16% in my favour.
Consequently I’ll be backing Beef or Salmon. My stake will be reduced a little from the normal stake, given the 12% cushion, due to the uncertainty over Kauto Star’s actual ability. I’ll increase the stake slightly if the ground changes to soft overnight or on the day.
Flippin’ eck – won’t be typing  this lot every week I can tell you that!! (as I’m sure you’ll doubtless be glad to hear!). Hope it’s given an insight into one type of methodology and perhaps offered helpful hints to one or two people.
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- Total Posts 17716
Corm
2 points from the above:<br> Although you may be right to reduce KS’s rating for his last race, you make no allowance for it being his first run of the season, in other words, it can almost certainly be improved upon.<br> If the presence of KS is the only criterion in reducing your bet by half, why not cover the other half by a small straight forecast – at around 8/1 it shouldn’t be too expensive?
Not reduced by half RH – just reduced ‘a little’.
Valid point about it being his first run of the season. The possibility of him improving further is why I’m reducing my bet. That possibility adds a reasonably significant risk factor to my bet.
I did note that the improvement factor was a ‘positive’ for KS and allowed for it in the rating as it tempered my initial reaction which was to treat that form even more harshly, although I never made that explicit in the commentary (I’d have been here all night if I’d covered every thought process!).
Good point though and, of course, I don’t really know a) whether the form has been overvalued and by how much or b) how much he’ll ‘come on’ for that run. I rely on my experience, judgement and historical data analysis for those calls. ÂÂÂ
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