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As I backed BOS, following the advice of everyone here .. not to look for the winner but for value, I am happy.
I can collectively blame you all for my own short comings.<br>:biggrin: :cool:
Oh dear. Beef Or Salmon was gaining ground hand over fist and would have got there in another circuit :)
AP
Thanks for the trip down memory lane.<br>Your post contained much wisdom,and should be studied as such.<br>A Player.
Quote: from Mounty on 6:32 pm on Nov. 18, 2006[br]Oh dear. Beef Or Salmon was gaining ground hand over fist and would have got there in another circuit :) <br>
PMSL
Though to be fair I don’t know if anything could of stopped Kauto Star today.<br>
Hi
in general have we learnt anything about, collectively, analysing races?
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
AP’s post was one of the best things I’ve read on here for some time and really set me to thinking – <br>
Hi cormack15
let us know what you come up with.
byefrom<br>carlisle
ps I can supply 80 delimited data items for any given race.<br>pps correction 80 delimited data items per runner for any given race.
<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 7:24 am on Nov. 22, 2006)
Hi
what price did AP have for Beef or Salmon, and why?
I know he wouldn’t back every horse he didn’t fancy, at any price………..
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>My pre race tissue was 4/5 Kauto Star, 5 L’ami, 6 Beef or Salmon, 8 Kingscliff, 25 bar.
The price for BoS is based on the UK run stats mentioned above – for whatever reason, he’s never run as well here as in Ireland and that combined with his age were the main inputs to my assessment.
AP
Why does Beef Or Salmon become Mince Or Fishpaste when he races in Britain?
I don’t think its anything to do with travelling or homesickness(!), rather just that, despite being the winner of nine Grade 1 steeplechases, he is not a good jumper.
He gets found out on this score in Britain because the races are run at stronger paces and the courses he has run at have relatively stiff fences. In Ireland they tend to hack around for the best part of three-quarters of a race. A perfect example of this was his first Ericsson/Lexus win, rerun on ATR last week, where virtually the entire field was still in contention (almost on the bridle) between the last two fences.
Quote: from apracing on 1:41 pm on Nov. 20, 2006[br]<br>My pre race tissue was 4/5 Kauto Star, 5 L’ami, 6 Beef or Salmon, 8 Kingscliff, 25 bar.
Out of interest AP, given that tissue did you back Kauto Star as well or were you content to lay BOS and leave it at that?
Not a layer myself, so had I composed that tissue my strategy at one time would have been to back KS, or nowadays to swerve the race unless KS was overlaid at 2/1 or more. My possibly flawed belief – though I’m quite happy with it – being "I don’t need bets at less than 2/1 despite apparent value"
Nore
Couldnt agree more. The whole pace of the race on saturday seemed to suprise him given the niggling that was necessary. Given his engine, he responded more or less but i still think this horse could have been better targeted to get a wider range of experience at earlier stages in his career.
anyone agree?
Nore – Has it really taken 5 seasons of seeing Beef or Salmon to come to the conclusion that Beef or Salmon is not a good jumper?
Clivex – maybe is was BECAUSE of the wide range of experience Beef or Salmon had early in his career over fences. In his first season over fences Beef or Salmon race 5 times at four tracks over four seperate distances, including running in the Gold Cup as a novice. Not sure it comes more wide ranging than that.
Fair enough dj. Was too lazy to check the formbook :)
Often wonder if that perhaps ill advised, GC run did more harm than good
And maybe if he had taken in a Cheltenham race or two other than the GC, he would have perhaps become more accustomed to the place?
I think that nore was refering more to the pace DJ. Just struck me taht he seems discomforted by that rather than the obstacles themselves
I think the conclusion to draw from all of this is that BOS is not the same horse when made to fence at pace, WOA is a better horse on quicker ground, and KS is going to stuff both of them come the gold cup. Personally I thought BOS ran fairly well for him, he had his conditions almost to a tee except they were running in a different country so I can’t see why he wouldn’t have run his race and on that basis you have to say that WOA is going to have be a 10-15lb better horse on good ground to get close to Kauto.
Or maybe i’m reading this all too literally..
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