- This topic has 99 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 5 months ago by
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By the way – I’m not proposing my ‘method’ as being some kind of great oracle. Anything but.
It is time consuming and has many flaws, I’ve ironed out many over the years but plenty remain.
I’ve just stuck my head over the parapet with it on here to stimulate discussion and hopefully have others discuss their own methods in detail so that we can all maybe pick up a gem or two.
I do make profits (small, in % terms) but am an enthusiastic amateur only and, IMO, the method outlined above contains no rocket science.<br>
I think you’re a bit more than an amateur Corm. I’m still sticking with L’Ami but Beef Or Salmon is certainly popular on here and if the ground softens i might have to have a rethink. Who is 7/2 BorS btw?
Hi
marvelous work cormack15.
Kauto Star has done well over the summer.  He is obviously bouncing with potential.  I don’t really want to be against him, but he is difficult to weigh up in price terms.  No one can say, with any accuracy, that he has a 50% or 60% chance of winning. (which would make him a betting proposition)
The key trends are against him. The last 10 winners have all had a win at the Distance and no 6yo has won. Also Favourite don’t have a good record.
Having said that the key trends are a bit of a mish mash,<br>not really favouring anyone.
This is what I call a so so favourite. Any vulnerablity will be exploited by this exposed bunch.  Equally he has the potential to win impressively.
Beef or Salmon is the value selection at 7/2.<br>However I will file this race under NO BET.
byefrom<br>carlisle
ps reet hard I have replicated my manual form studying into a computer program.  Although it’s on the floor in bits at the moment. "bugger"
(Edited by carlisle at 12:16 pm on Nov. 20, 2006)
<br>Corm,
Appreciate the detailed explanation and I understand your approach as it’s the one I used to use back in the days before I became a full time player. But once I started to meet other full timers on course and had the chance to talk with them, I found that they were putting in the same amount of effort and coming up with the same answers that I was.
I concluded that spending two hours identifying an overpriced 14/1 shot wasn’t worth the effort when the likes of Eddie the Shoe, Deaf Paul, Beardy Al, Squeaky and John were ensuring that it would open 7/1 and go off 9/2 – and they could all move round the ring quicker than me!
So I opted for a different approach, spending my time watching races and researching ideas, rather than poring over the formbook for hours every evening. I became much more a student of individual horses rather than of races.
To give a simple example, I spotted early in his career that Teaatral was unbeatable going right-handed and moderate going left-handed. That single piece of knowledge provided me with a string of winning bets that produced more than £20k profit from betting that one horse. When he ran in a hurdle on a r-h track, my analysis lasted about a minute, just checking that conditions would suit the horse.
The interesting question is whether I could make this method work if I hadn’t spent the earlier years acquiring experience with the detailed race analysis – and I don’t know the answer to that one.
The best of luck to Mince or Fishpaste backers – I’ll be waiting on BF to accomodate you…..
AP
Corm – your analysis of this race is excellent and you are no amateur. Everybody has their own methods of making money out of this game and if a system works then stick with it. There has been a lot of useful information given out on this thread and it has been very helpful.
AP –
I agree wholeheartedly with you. Einstein once said ‘imagination is more important than knowledge’, or some such, and that idea can be applied here. I work hard but often think I’m not working smart.
The ‘two minute’ analysis of the BF Chase would revolve around taking a view on Kauto Star and BOS, which, despite my painstaking study is, in effect, what I’ve ended up doing. Only it’s taken me two hours!
I like your idea of becoming a ‘student of individidual horses’ and making that work. I can see how that could be powerful.
Anyway – that’s for another day. Today – I’ll see you amongst the pink and blue boxes!
- Total Posts 17716
Anyone who intends to back Beef or Salmon should (imo) at least give some thought to having a bet ‘in running’. <br>With Ollie Magern and Kingscliffe committed to making it a good pace, and the ground unchanged, BoS is almost certain to be trailing early, and should trade a fair bit higher than he is at present.
Great stuff RH –
The advent/accessibility of in-running betting gives another set of options to exploit and I’m probably not alone (or maybe I am?) in failing to take account of those fully.
I think you could well be right and I’ll save a % of my stake for an in-running play.
Isn’t it a concern for Beef or Salmon backers that he had a hard race only 14 days ago? Is that long enough for him to recover to full race fitness?
Hi Alan
thanks for your views.  Will you be betting in the race?
byefrom<br>carlisle
ps post race stuff will be interesting…….
"The best of luck to Mince or Fishpaste backers – I’ll be waiting on BF to accomodate you…..
AP"
(sorry I missed that bit, first time.)
AP 1  Mounty 0<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 7:57 am on Nov. 19, 2006)
<br>Now we can just bet on the identity of the first person to say –
Yes, but what did he beat?
AP
Very, very impressive indeed.
As I get the egg and chips ready for tonight’s tea I’ll be thinking of apracing telephoning his favourite restaurant for a nice meal AT MY EXPENSE!
<br>
Quote: from apracing on 2:00 pm on Nov. 18, 2006[br]<br>Now we can just bet on the identity of the first person to say –
Yes, but what did he beat?
AP<br>
apracing (no offer)
Quote: from cormack15
As I get the egg and chips ready for tonight’s tea I’ll be thinking of apracing telephoning his favourite restaurant for a nice meal AT MY EXPENSE!
<br>Corm,
My favourite restaurant would be one that could provide a top quality egg and chips – there’s nothing better.
I’m looking forward to debating the Hennessy next week.
AP
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