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I wouldn’t be one bit worried a about Hurrcane Fly handling Cheltenham but I would be worried about Michael Flips jumping either.
Andy Turnell has a future over fences marked out for the horse and although he made a bad mistake when beaten but horses aren’t stupid. Like some humans they learn from their mistakes.
I have severe doubts about his hurdle form being anywhere good enough to win the Supreme. His best run was against a fairly moderate Henderson horse, although it must be said he was giving away lumps of weight and on a track you would have to agree was probably against him.
I know TJ has said he may ride MF but JP McManus had two entries in Ainama and Sunnyhillboy who now goes for the County Hurdle. I would imagine JP will definitely want to run Ainama in this but if he doesn’t then I would have thought AP will most likely ride his Torphichen for the Pipes.
Despite having won at Kempton, being a chasing type you might find he will be taken of his feet. They go one helluva pace at Cheltenham and his type are seldom quiick enough. He could like many other future chasing stars run into a place though.
Hurrican Fly looks really special to me and if he makes it he”ll be backed of the boards and he’ll win IMO. If not then I will back whatever AP rides and Cousin Vinny would be a lay for me.
I can’t see past What A Friend. PN is already talking about him as a future Gold Cup horse.
It’s the bookmakers who have got me confused.
Cooldine was a very decent hurdler if not a great one and there will probably be more wins to come over fences.
He made such a hard job of beating Forpadydeplasterer I would have to question though if he is good enough to win at Cheltenham. He’s a good horse but I wasn’t impressed by him at all.
When Trafford Lad beat Forpadydeplasterer in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse by over 5 lengths the bookies virtually ignored it.
This fellow beats the same horse by a shorter distance under enormous pressure from Ruby Walsh and all of a sudden the form based round the same group of horses is good enough to make him 6/1 joint fav.?
I can’t see the Irish backing this one of the boards and fancy this prize will stay at home.
You’re three times more scared than I am Stan
I doubt if Nicky’s will be in the same class as Ainama who beat Hebridean.
The latter may have been a little disappointing but Gifford horse will have to be really be something to give him 9lbs. He’s any price you like for the Triumph so I have my doubts that they think he’s anything special
I think Ruby will be looking forward to riding this one today he should surely win this easily.
Hopefully this is a case of if Duff gets the break and gets to the front asap
He gets 7 furlongs so he’s unlikely to be stopping and I doubt if Matsunosuke will be able to peg him back. I make him the best bet of the day.It’s hard to oppose the favourite here.
He looks a class above these I think when we look back in the future he might look like handicap certainty at todays weights. 9/2 looks a huge price with Sporting Bet
Jonjo O’neill’s Fier Normand may prove a danger if there is to be one. He pretty unexposed never having completed at this distance and it may just be what he needs.He has 3 engagemnts at Cheltenam. Two over 3 miles but none of the prizes are a s big as this one today.
He was running on better than anything over 2m5f when finishing 2nd to Stan and is about 11lbs better in today. He’s 13/1 with Sporting bet which also looks a good price
Can’t see this being only a prep race for Cheltenham and I can’t see him not being in the first 4 if he stays. He only needs to finsih 4th or better to cover my bets so here’s hoping.
So losing to Kauto Star by what? A short head last year. Seven lengths behind a horse who is under a thunder cloud at the moment. Long way ahead of the others. That means he has no hope of winning this year does it?
I backed Neptunes for the Gold cup soon after last years race and at the moment deserves to be second favourite. Am a little worried a hard race on very soft ground will not do his Gold Cup chances any good.
On Notre Pere for the National, am hoping for a good run without encouraging them to keep him to Grade 1’s. Ideal type for the National.
Mark
That means what you want it to mean mate and if you want to go by his proximity to Kauto Star and a form book word for word,ignoring all other important factors of the race, that is your prerogative. I’m sure Ruby Walsh can’t wait to get of Kauto Star and ride Neptune Collonges
Is he definately going for the Supreme not the Ballymore? I’m getting a bit confused about who is going where at the moment!
Unless the lameness he suffered is long term I agree it would make more sense to run Hurrican Fly solo in the Supreme. He a good thing in a lot of people views and Jonjo O’Neill (Sunnyhillboy) and Nicky Henderson (Mad Max) are probably waiting until they know where he runs before making final plans. I suspect wherever HF goes they will probably run theirs in the other one.
The other two Mullins horses are somewhat less obvious and it would increase the yards chances of picking up the Balmore as well, if they ran both IMO.
Won a poor Champion Chase, then beaten out of sight by a true Champion. Yes, he might be better at 2 1/2 miles, but has not beaten anything yet of outstanding merit (that has run to form), or a good horse by a long way. When he has come up against a really top class horse (that has run to form) has been beaten. Kauto Star and Master Minded.
Love his tenacity, will to win, but on form I can’t see how he is under-rated.Mark
That’s the problem though isn’t it? If we underrate a horse like VPU, then when he puts up a huge run, like Aintree last year, we explain it away by saying that everything else ran below form. Take Master Minded out, and he’s beaten the field by a distance, proving that he is a very good horse indeed. His timefigure/topspeed fig backs that up, but we tend to look for justification to pull him down in ratings terms. Bottom line is that he’s out of the very top drawer.
I think it’s the exact opposite of what you are saying in this case Rory. The probelm is they overrated VPU’s QMCC win and as a result we had 5 year old horse shooting to the top of the rating above two horses who had achieved 3 times what he had at the time. Namely Denman and Kauto Star.
Master Minded never got the trip. Tamarindbleu ran the same sort of stinker he did in the QMCC weeks earlier. Now we have VPU winning a race where he was absolutely thrown in and he’s some sort of superstar?
As I said earler he’s a lovely horse but he is what he is and is no Moscow flyer or Badsworth Boy.
I’ll may be sticking my kneck out here but I will be amazed if he doesn’t find one or two too good for him at Cheltenham. He wont get things his own way there like he has in his last two runs.
Having said that I still cannot see him winning the World Hurdle at Cheltenham – I would rather see him go next to the Aintree Hurdle.
Think connections are favouring the Coral Cup now – likely to give away hulks of weight all round, but what’s new?
Tremendous animal.
gc
I’m with Paul on Cheltenham whether it be the Word or Coral Hurdle but I wouldn’t send him to Aintree either. He has never won after February because that’s when the really top stayers usually hit top form.
He’s a brilliant horse in his own right but when it comes to the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, sadly he just lacks the class to be a serious threat to the best.
Perhaps there is another race maybe even in Ireland he could go for .If there is such a beast I hope Davind Pipe digs one out for him
11/10 with Paddy Power it’s time to dig deep into the piggy bank
I think backing the forecast is a no no. I am with those who fancy Pandorama for second but he’s no good thing to finish in front of Cousin Vinny.
The latter has no where near the turn of foot of his stable companion and the weight difference from the last time they met won’t change that one iota..
Very Confident Hurricane Fly will win this very easily.
VPU has won an Arkle a QMCC and is now favourite for the Ryanair.
His Arkle win and Queen Mother wins however were overshadowd by the fact Kauto Star put him firmly in his palce in the Tingle Creek between the two races. There is also the fact that the favourite for the Queen Mother, Well Chief fell and the horses who finished 2nd and 3rd were moderate and finished only just behind. I would say he’s been fairly lucky to be where he was at the time.
Combine that to the fact VPU has lost half the chases he has ran in and it’s understandable why he is not that highly regarded.
Yesterday the fact is he did what ou would expect him to do. He was by far the highest rated horse in the race.
Again he was put in his place when Kauto Star beat him as he liked in the King George.
It could be he is a better horse at 2m4f plus which would be great but unless he wins the Ryanair with his head in his chest I doubt if there will be a very big corner laid out for him in the Hall of Fame. Nice horse though and great to watch when he’s on song.
I would go with See You Then as the most underated NH of recent times.
If he’d been blessed with 4 good legs he would have no doubt won even more races than he did. How on earth Nicky Henderson managed to get a horse who was basically cripple to the CH 3 times and win it 3 times is beyond belief.You wuld have to say yes if it wasn’t for the ground and if the same question was asked about a few others in he World Hurdle again yes would surely be the answer.
Kasbah Bliss ran Inglis Drever to a length which looks great on paper but Inglis Drever had been on the go for a very long time and was probably a much better horse in previous years,
Outwith that, over jumps he had won a novice hurdle and a hurdle race at Haydock when the favourite Wichita Lineman ran no sort of race. Now he’s won a no contest and people are saying he’s a certainty for the World Hurdle. Hardly form to be getting as exited about as some are.
I could see Punchestown beating him very easily. Up and coming, has class written all over him and no one knows better than Nicky Henderson what it takes to win at cheltenham.
He was beaten on Heavy ground which is easy to forgive any horse, and he should hit 4/1 in the next couple of days with moey coming for KB.Excellent price if he does.
Certainly deserves to be favourite and it doesn’t take much winning but United is still the one to beat IMO.
Her form against Chief Yeoman and Tazbar is standing up to scruitiny and she is one tough mare to beat when on form. She’s certainly as good as anything that ran in the race last year.I take it you are joking Beckster. It’s a 200,000 euro race and it his main target of the season. If he runs well in the Gold Cup again that will be a bonus but Paul Nichols nor anyone attached to the yard expect him to win it or he wouldn’t be running here. That surely lies between Kauto Star and Denman as far as they are concerned.
He’s a huge price is Imperial Commander for a horse with the handle "The best I’ve ever trained"
Considering Exotic Dancer, Barber Shop and Big Zeb are running elsewhere, Tidal Bay seems to have lost his way and t here is some doubt about Our Vic, the 12/1 available about IC is very tempting.
VPU was impressive but the Ryanair takes a lot more winning than that race dideven with the expected non runners
He looks the main danger to VPU I’m just wondering why on earth he’s such a big price which is slightly worrying.
I wonder about Tamaridbleu Ian. His overall form is really quite moderate,
I backed him today rather stupidly as I thought VPU might not go on the ground and I thought PIPE fitness might win the day.I think h’e’s quite simply moderate when it comes to meeting the best. He was absolutely stuffed in the QMCC and couldn’t even go the pace. VPU has walked all over him here. That race at Ascot was a farce as Twist Magic was on one of his I am not staying today moods.
Well done Halfway,
No luck to it mate, well done.
I am happy enough with that result with my Champion Hurdle bet looking better now.
Punjabi did look a good price but obviously unfit. Has a lot to make up in little more than a few weeks. Disappointing.
Mark
I would have thought Nicky Henderson would be delighted with that run. The horse takes a tremendous amount of work to get ready. The ground was awful and he wasn’t knocked about.
He’ll come on a ton from that and I will be amazed if Pipe’s horse finishes in front of him in the CH.
The actual from of the race isn’t worth much in CH terms though, Whiteoak scraped home by a short head in the David Nicholason last year. Jonjo O’neill’s refinement finished 2nd’giving her 5 lb. She was 2nd to Elusive Dream getting 7lbs a few weeks later
The winner is clearly Pipes second string and the only thing he has going for him is last years CH winner won this race..The similarity in his CH chances ends there I’m afraid.
