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I’m already a huge fan of Starluck and don’t think he has anything to fear from the thirteen declared against him in the Adonis. The one real unknown is Terry Mills’s Tyrrells Wood (First Avenue will improve, but probably isn’t top class, and I don’t subscribe to the hype surrounding Excape), but fast ground would look to be a necessity for him.
I just think Alan Fleming has him exactly where he wants him at this point in time and doesn’t want to subject him to a needlessly stressful race (should the ground turn soft, for instance).
Round kempton on good ground Hebridean would be a huge threat to Starluck, he was 20lbs superior on the flat and even beat him by 6 lengths, over jumps starluck has been a bit more shrewdly campaigned than hebridean, who has been put out against better horses, on testing ground that has seen him outstayed.
This wil be Hebrideans first run on suitable conditions, if the ground is good (also starlucks best conditions) and starluck is pulled out then we’ll know he was only entered in the hope of another easy field. If he does run, and I hope so, then I cant see him winning by much, if at all.
Excape was hugely supported in the triumph market, biggest gamble in the market probably, before being run on heavy ground that made sense to no-one and he was beaten some distance from home. Henderson stable gambles are usually quite shrewd, and to see this horse turn up as the sole entry in a big race that Henderson (who lets face it must have a few candidtaes for this race) has won 2 years running with similar types of horses, with ground more in his favour this time, kind of makes me think that there may be more to excape than he showed on heavy at plumpton.
First Avenue didnt look suited to conditions last time either but put in a really decent resolute performance. Should prefer good-soft to win at 2 miles, good round kempton may be too sharp for him.
Helium is really nicely bred, has good early season form, looks to have been saved from testing ground and aimed at this race, should like the ground and could go well if not also finding it a bit sharp.
Tyrells Wood is of interest as is King Of The Gypsys (gypsy king’s brother) and the alan king trio could all be up to a decent level of form.
This race is no done deal if starluck lines up IMO, I would like to see starluck turn up and if he does I’ll probably be backing Hebridean and excape against him, but will probably try to judge the ground after the dovecote first.
This race looks a great trial for aintree IMO, or possibly cheltenham, if the ground at cheltenham is good, and its a pity that Master Of Arts isnt in the line up as it would be good to get to guage him against a few similar sorts.
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I’m sure the money for Henderson’s Excape had some foundation to it, but given his need for faster ground and slightly questionable temperament I’m prepared to risk that hurdling won’t be his game. Well, at least not to a sufficient level to be competitive in top class novice events.
Similarly with Hebridean, I would have expected him to have shown more by now.
For me Starluck has been one of the most impressive novices of the season thus far and he’s already proven that Kempton suits him perfectly. If he doesn’t run, which has to be doubtful at this point, then Tyrrells Wood would appear to be the most interesting proposition (though First Avenue’s participation will be noteworthy, given Numide’s dismal failure on the same card last year). Otherwise, it’s a no-bet contest for me.
I’ll be with Helium if he lines up. He’s one of those I’ve backed ante-post for Cheltenham and fingers crossed given he has some of the best form of any in the race (the Auteuil runs tie in well with the better hurdlers that Pipe/Nicholls have) and he’s very much the forgotten horse after his impressive wins earlier in the year.
If it looks like good-soft in the dovecote, earlier on the card, I may join you with helium, think helium is a nice horse to go for cheltenham and would still give him a good chance at cheltenham if defeated on saturday. Only worry is that if the ground is good then a horse of his profile is likely to struggle around kempton in this sort of company, especially with some really decent looking speed horses opposing who would have everything ideal on those terms.
I’m on Helium but do fear the Henderson horse most. He has a great record in the race so its no surprised one of his has been backed, though I’m a little shocked Zaynar isn’t running as he had said it needed the experience and this is surely the last race it could run in before the Festival.
I’m on Helium but do fear the Henderson horse most. He has a great record in the race so its no surprised one of his has been backed, though I’m a little shocked Zaynar isn’t running as he had said it needed the experience and this is surely the last race it could run in before the Festival.
I’m with Helium in this. He’s done nothing wrong and the yard think the world of it. I do fear the Henderson horse and am not surprised money has come for it given his record in the race. I am shocked that one is running though and not Zaynar who he said needed tyhe experience and surely now has no more chances to run before the Festival.
You’re three times more scared than I am Stan
I doubt if Nicky’s will be in the same class as Ainama who beat Hebridean.
The latter may have been a little disappointing but Gifford horse will have to be really be something to give him 9lbs. He’s any price you like for the Triumph so I have my doubts that they think he’s anything special
I think Ruby will be looking forward to riding this one today he should surely win this easily.
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Sorry, MCFC Stan, I didn’t quite catch which horse you had backed
I haven’t been at all impressed by Hebridean and already have him marked down as another Rippling Ring. The ante-post Festival money for Excape is interesting but, as I said before, he’s not the most straight-forward and I can’t see him enjoying the ground at all.
With Cosmea having made hard work of winning last time out, Helium looks the one to be on (if he gets to the front early, he should win).
The thing to remember about hebridean is that he was best at about 1m2f on the flat on good ground, but could handle worse ground. The two races he has had have been on soft and staminawise have been run more like (in equivalent flat terms) like well paced 1m4f-1m6f races, so he had virtually no chance of winning them but IMO performed creditably.
IMO At kempton, on good ground it is a bit hard to run a 2 mile hurdle race as anything more searching than a 1m2f flat race. todays race is good-sft which means it can be run more testing than a 1m2f race but by how much will all depend on pace, which helium will set up, no doubt.
I would have considered a bet on Excape today if the ground was good, as henderson clearly thinks a lot of him, but with Helium the likely pacesetter on good-soft I couldnt have Excape at all after how he ran out of puff so far from home last time.
Think Ainama could get chinned today though. All he done last time was outstay hebridean on soft ground which isnt hard, and where it was a good performance, in it’s relevance to today’s race, it doesnt justify his price.
Dee Ee Williams brings better form on good-soft to the table and Alazari at 25-1 looks a brilliant contender for a trainer who’s win rate over hurdles is absolutely brilliant.
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