- This topic has 28 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
VPU…..Dont think he’s going to be effective on heavy ground at this level, too short.
Gwanako…..Unexposed, nice progressive profile, will he handle the ground? A small horse with 11-7 to lug round Ascot in very testing conditions, couldnt have him.
The Sawyer…..Looks outclassed in this
Tamarinbleu…..Should get the uncontested lead that he likes, trip and course perfect and winning Grade 1 form on heavy ground. Must have a massive chance in this, 2/1 or more the value.A small horse with 11-7 to lug round Ascot in very testing conditions,
Do you really think a horse that weighs about half a ton can tell the difference between 10-7 and 11-7? The fact that this is a level weights contest makes this no issue imo. In a handicap I could see the logic of the horse being better suited by getting weight off superior horses than conceding weight to inferior ones given his size but don’t see the weigh he carries being relevant. For me his chance would be the same whether they are all carrying 13-7, 11-7 or 9-7.
I’m expecting VPU to drift. The last few season he’s ran between Christmas and The Cheltenham Festival, he’s been a beaten favourite – and there have been negative vibes about him in the morning (King saying it’s a prep. for Cheltenham, it’s not the end of the world if he gets beat, etc). With the trip (I’m not convinced he stays it) and the ground (has been beaten by inferior horses on this ground before), I think he’s a very dodgy favourite.
Has to be Tamarinbleu for me. Goes on the ground, gets the trip, loves the course, and he’ll get an uncontested lead. He’s proven at this level unlike Gawanko. 9/4 seems a reasonable price to me.
Do you really think a horse that weighs about half a ton can tell the difference between 10-7 and 11-7?
Wouldn’t know what goes through a horses mind but all creatures have their physical limits. I wouldn’t be taking a short price about a small horse carrying a big weight on heavy ground at one of the stiffest tracks in the country when he hasn’t done it before. We’ll see tomorrow.
all creatures have their physical limits.
I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with that, but hasn’t Gwanako already shown his best form when carrying 11-8 at Aintree? If he gets beat tomorrow, it will be because he’s up against superior animals in Voy Por Ustedes and Tamarinbleu and not because he had too much lead in his saddle.
I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with that, but hasn’t Gwanako already shown his best form when carrying 11-8 at Aintree?
Not on heavy ground at Ascot he hasn’t. Big difference imo.
Want to oppose VPU at this trip on heavy going.
Tamarinbleu is an in-and-out sort who again may be more suited to shorter on the forecast going
Gwanako is unexposed and a CD winner
Approximately 9/4 each-of-three on my line
Don’t think VPU will enjoy the slog of heavy ground and isn’t as good when going right handed so happy to lay him particularly as he’s trading at 10/11 or Evens in most places.
Hoping that Gwanako runs well for my 40/1 bet in the Ryanair and as he likes soft ground, ran well at the track last time out and in my opinion has more improvement to come..
I think Tamarinbleu is the main danger especially as Ascot favours front runners on the chase course these days, he showed his liking for the track when winning the Victor Chandler at Ascot last season and soft ground will not be a problem for him.
At the current prices of VPU – 10/11, Tamarinbleu – 2/1 & Gwanako – 7/2 I would much prefer to be on Gwanako.
Fingers Crossed!!!!
Will back Tamarinbleu tomorrow at 2/1 or better. The key to him is being fresh- 50 days off should be enough. Like TWW I want Gwanako to run well for a Ryanair prep but over this C and D on heavy I much prefer Pipe’s horse.
- Total Posts 17716
Unless Voy Por Ustedes drifts it’s a no-bet race for me, but surely he has this at his mercy?
I’d be astounded if Gwanako is up to winning a race of this nature and Tamarinbleu, even at his best, is only likely to set the race up for the favourite (he was impressive in beating Twist Magic, but we now know he achieved very little in doing so in soft ground).
My worry with VPU is it’s a very very long time sincce he won against decent opposition. Master Minded never stayed and prior ro he the only race he won was when 2/5 fav in a fairly modertate affair at Kempton.
He has never encountered heavy ground and this 2m5f at Ascot must be about the smae as running at Kempton over 3 miles.I doubt if David Pipe fancies his chances in any race at Cheltenham with Tamarinbleu. You can bet your life though he will be as fit as a flea today.
He has won on heavy and he won at Perth over 3miles.
He certainly has a lot more proof going for him that todays trip and going wil favour him more than VPU.
Gwanako ran on soft at Aintree but fell too early to know if he will go on this ground. That makes him a blind bet which could be a good reason to leave the race alone.The way I see it is Tamarinbleu will take off in front and lead tem a merry gallop. If he gets a good lead on these I can’t see them knocking VPU about with the Ryanair on the agenda. If VPU wins it will be very easily or not at all IMO
Despite finishing well behind in the King George this could end up being a procession for the Pipe horse, especially if Gwanako doesn’t act on the ground.
Tamarinbleu for me.
Tamarinbleu for me as well. Everything is in his favour, track, trip, ground, soft lead, small field. Stable won AON Chase so nothing wrong with their form. Voy Por is better on better going.
Surely VPU must win this to have any credible aspiration of winning at Cheltenham ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Despite the ground concerns it has to be VPU for me today. His price is a bit short but given VPU’s quality he’s my pick.
- Total Posts 17716
What price for the Ryanair now…?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.