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Yes, It’s another one of those AW sprints that a few of us actually really enjoy betting on and watching
This week’s big sprint sees Matsunosuke (an impressive winner on his last 2 start) step back up to 6 furlongs to take on the consistent Duff.
Reliable Jamie Spencer partners Swiss Franc in the hope that Swiss Franc might finally get past the post in first place. Sadly Swiss Franc hasnt won for almost 2 years now and despite being lightly campaigned in that time it’s hard to find a reason to back him here.
For me it’s between the top two, Duff and Matsunosuke, and in keeping with tradition here’s how I think things will end up….
Matsunosuke
(1L) Duff
(1 3/4L) Swiss Franc
(1L) Smarten Die
(2L) Ceremonial Jade
(hd) Orpsie Boy
(1L) DvinskyDuff carrying 3lbs extra could make all the difference here and as long as Matsunosuke takes to the return to 6f he should prove how good he is once again.
I really fancy
Orpsie Boy
for this tasty little race.
Had a nice recent run out at Dunstall Park to get it mentally right for this. Good price too.
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Matsunosuke could just be undone by a strongly run race over six furlongs, so despite the 3lbs he has to concede
Duff
is the clear choice for me.
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Equitrack
I doubt a strongly run race would inconvenience Matsunosuke too much?
In what must be one the fastest 6f races ever run at the track, he finished like a train from too far back against Doubtful Sound, and in his previous race – again run at a good pace – he won in a saunter over the stiffer 6f at Great Leighs.
In what should be a great race, I’d take Matsunosuke just to edge out Duff at the death.I have a bit of a half-baked theory about Matsunosuke. Basically I think the horse is ideally suited by the way races are run around Lingfield, and the way that they develop, I’m not sure weight has the same effect there as it does at other courses. Basically I’m not sure he’s improved as much as what the figures would suggest and this is a step up in class for him. He started a 20/1 chance when beaten three and a half lengths by Ceremonial Jade in a 6f minor event at Great Leighs in September. Ceremonial Jade is very much at his best on polytrack at 6f/7f and was a short priced fav for the race that Duff won over course and distance late last year. That run is best ignored having been caught wide and he also did quite well when third to that horse at Kempton last time, coming from too far back.
Basically there are plenty of pieces of form that make Ceremonal Jade a similar horse to the front 2 in the betting but he’s available at 3x the price of them.
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I think a strong pace over five furlongs is ideal for Matsunosuke, reet, but believe that there’s a point over a furlong further where a decent front-runner could just give him the slip (before the inevitable late charge).
Duff is better than any pace horse Matsunosuke has faced thus far and I’d expect him to have poached a sufficient lead a furlong out to last home.
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DJ
Not sure about your theory, but definitely agree about sharp courses and weight.
It’s an old Stewart Simpson angle, and one we used to milk regularly, with penalty carriers, in the early days of the Lingfield AW. Probably has much to do with the preponderance of high-weight winners in past Racing Post chases, too?Sounds like a good time to have been around reet. Such a pity I was still in short trousers!
Hopefully this is a case of if Duff gets the break and gets to the front asap
He gets 7 furlongs so he’s unlikely to be stopping and I doubt if Matsunosuke will be able to peg him back. I make him the best bet of the day.Last last minute punt but I’ll be on a EW bet for Smarten Die aswell as my Matsunosuke bet
Duffs jockey booking is the main worry for my bet IMO
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Duffs going to be one hard horse to beat
Duffs going to be one hard horse to beat
Too late Mr W! He’s been pegged back in the last furlong
After that – is Matsunosuke one of the greatest sprinters to ever grace the AW?
His turn of foot is exceptional
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Duffs going to be one hard horse to beat
Too late Mr W! He’s been pegged back in the last furlong
Ahh The Sunosuke! you have to admire it’s temprement its been running hard races all flat season and now an all weather campagin
Duffs going to be one hard horse to beat
Too late Mr W! He’s been pegged back in the last furlong
Ahh The Sunosuke! you have to admire it’s temprement its been running hard races all flat season and now an all weather campagin
He’s just an absolutely cracking horse. I follow the AW season quite closely and have never failed to admire this horses runs. From his placed run behind The Game early season right up to this one.
Luke Morris has brought the best out of this one
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