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0 in 37….? Didn’t realise. Even better in that case. That’s a run that will soon come to an end. Stable’s too shrewd for that to carry on surely?
Osana
Tidal Bay(something dramatic often happens at the festival, Master Minded falling at the first?)
Kasbah Bliss
DenmanDepends what you think of Pause and Clause I suppose. I personally think it’s solid form and have a little e/w interest in the coral cup. He’s gone on to beat a 130 rated horse by an easy 8 lengths since and Mad Max will appreciate better ground if it drys out.
Going back to the the race with Karabak, Mad Max seemed to have held him at bay with relative ease. I’d rather be on something at a better price than Karabak.With high class novice hurdlers is abundance this year, a 3/1 favourite for this race isn’t appealing to me at all.
Mad Max seems to be a big price judged on what he did to Karabak. Could have pulled some way clear if push came to shove and yet he’s double the price? Its fair enough to think Karabak has improved a graet deal since but if Mad Max has come on at all for that race, the outcome could very well be the same.
Agree with KendalCavalier about Bay Cherry. You would think he would stay well enough on pedigree, lightly raced and from a top drawer stable etc… Certainly worth a little each way punt at the 100/1 on offer with a lot of bookmakers.(the festival always throws up one or two!) Hard to assess just what he achieved in his last race as Overlady could be well ahead of the handicapper and I dont really know where to start with Pre Token.
The one I’m most interested in would be A J Martins horse Drumcovis. Think he’ll relish this trip and has run a couple of crackers behind Followtheplan and Casey Jones before a recent pipe opener over two miles. Stepping up in trip and dropping back in grade could prove decisive imo.
Le Beau Bai at 33’s could be worth a glance as an up and coming stayer, only six, not done much wrong so far.
Tidal Bay’s gonna ruin your life just like he did to me last year when I had 40 quid on Noland (sounds like I’m joking but a huge bet for me and made me feel sick).
Start packing your suitcase, the rains coming!
I know, but he has jumped well enough to win over fences before. If you forgive his jumping performance in the welsh national he’s not all that bad.
Watched a couple of replays on him from earlier chases and although not as natural as some of his rivals seems to jump fairly economically.
If he doesn’t perform his jumping I agree will be the most likely reason. Would be foolish to rule a horse out at 20/1 that ticks every other box though imo. But then I only gamble a little, especially in handicaps at Cheltenham!
Really like the look of Nenuphar Collonges here. Loves this track and has the weights in his favour…. Not confirmed yet but Choc Thornton will probably ride him. 20’s look good imo.
Dropping back in trip on a course he acts very well on wont do him any harm either
On the evidence so far it appears that ForPady doesn’t stay 2m5f imo so a strongly-run Arkle would be his best chance. He travels so well, you’d have to fancy he’ll be going well, it just depends what he finds. Anyone think he’s a bit of a bridle horse (having said that he found plenty for pressure in the Irish Arkle when just beaten)?
Given that the Arkle doesn’t look vintage this year, I’d give him every chance in a strongly run race on better ground than he’s encountered in Ireland this season.
I think the Arkle has always been his target. Trainers often put their Arkle contenders over longer distances in their prep races as Tidal Bay was last year. I agree, Forpady looks a cracking each way bet IMO
just spotted this from simon claisse on cheltenham website
"I was up at Haydock on Saturday and spoke to Francois Doumen before Kasbah Bliss ran. He told me he hoped for quicker ground at The Festival and that we would see a better horse on March 12th – if that is the case, the rest of the Ladbrokes World Hurdle contenders have their work cut out!! "
Totally agree, this horse doesnt seem to have any weaknesses either it must be noted. If its a slow pace, he has the superior finishing speed, if its a fast pace he has stamina in abundance. Now quite evidently he acts on all types of going. If I was going to back against him, I would be backing against the jockey more than the horse. Pieux gave him a lovely ride the weekend but doesnt fill me with confidence.
Still think if Powerstation runs, he’ll be thereabouts. Dont think he ran last year but the times he has run around Cheltenham, he’s been narrowly beaten by Fair Along who was recieving a lot of weight and on his day could turn the form book on its head, and also was unlucky in his previous Cheltenham visits running into and only finding Black Jack Ketcham too good for him. A very underrated horse who could shock a few people (even though the form is there) Also must have been a huge gamble on him somewhere….. from 50’s to 16’s in the space of a week, (subsequently eased back out) says someone somewhere is quietly confident.
No such thing as a banker at Cheltenham…
Not strictly true.
In the past , Arkle (65 and 66 ), Flyingbolt (66) and Badsworth Boy ( 85 )were just three of the biggest bankers to line-up the festival.
Master Minded is also a banker this year. Won’t get beat !
Easy to pick out bankers in retrospect. The festival has and always will be a lottery to a certain extent. I would think more "bankers" than not end up getting turned over at the festival
I ended up backing Vinny at 4/5 now. He will run past Pandorama and say "i think you need help with your jumping mate, have a nice day".
Always the way
I haven’t seen the race.
I had a bet on Jumbo Rio a few weeks ago, after looking at the pedigrees of the main contenders.
Why is Jumbo Rio still a bigger price than Ebadiyan, after beating him twice?
Reckon the thinking is Ebadiyan will stay better up the hill. Judged on todays performance, you wouldnt argue. Still think the 33’s I took on Mourad’s looking good, he’s crying for better ground. Think they only ran him today as a last resort. He’d been entered for 5 or 6 races in the last month or so and was pulled out of every one of them because of the going and abandonments. This was an ideal race to get a run and some decent experience behind him.
Cant see why people think Kauto Star doesnt stay the GC trip…… didnt he win one not so long ago?
