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I quite like the look of Commodore for Venetia Williams in this. Stable going well, looks to have been lightly raced this season with this in mind, jumps well, and seems to go well on any ground. Wasn’t stopping over 3m2f last time, giving Santini a good beating (albeit receiving a lot of weight). 50/1 or 90’s on the exchanges looks big.
Really like Shattered Love in this. Finished 12 lengths ahead of Presenting Percy when they met in November (2nd and 3rd behind Jury Duty) and is as big as 16/1.
Agreed, Minella Rocco looks a cracking ew bet in a year when you could argue most of the market leaders have questionable form this time round. The race is set up nicely for a big priced winner imo.
Also Lil Rockafeller @ 25’s? Mental price. Had everything bar the I’ll fated Nicholas Canyon behind him last year.
Charbel also 25’s looks generous to me, was in the process of giving Altior something to think about last year, if he turns up fit he could well run into a place.Would be interested to find out if anyone knows what’s happened to In The Rough. After winning a decent race at Cheltenham in October, he was one of my fancies for this. Heard nothing about him since and is not priced up anywhere.
Any clues?
1:30 Back In Focus (res Our Father)
2:05 Pont Alexandre (res Chatterbox)
2:40 Hadrians Approach (res Boston Bob)
3:20 Sizing Europe (res Mail De Bievre)
4:00 Hollow TreeNAP
(res Un Beau Matin)
4:40 Habesh (res Saphir Du Rheu)
5:15 Union Dues (res Milo Milan)1:30 Jezki (res Dodging Bullets)
2:05 Overturn (res Arvika Ligeonniere)
2:40 Midnight Chase (res Knockara Beau)
3:20 Binocular (res Zarkandar)
4:00 Saddlers Storm (res Arabella Boy)
4:40 Une Artiste (res Quevega)
5:15 The Druids Nephew (res Fourjacks)Silviniaco Conti is the lay of the meeting. They dodged The RSA last year because he wasn’t a ‘Cheltenham horse’, and have ran him on flat tracks all season to compensate. Nicholls is only running him because he doesn’t have a horse for the race.
Gotta be risky business laying a 5/1 shot that obviously has a lot of class such as Silviniaco Conti. I thought they swerved the RSA last year to protect their investment, look what it did to Grand Crus…it ruined him as it has done quite a few other young and promising horses in the past. Paul Nicholls was saying he might do the same this year with Rocky Creek. After SC’s Betfair Chase win, the only thing on Paul Nicholls mind was keeping in one piece FOR Cheltenham, weighing up if to run him again or keep him fresh. Plus up until a few weeks ago, Tidal Bay was also a possibility. Surely it makes more sense to simply back something else if you dont fancy him. I dont think there’s anything to suggest he won’t act at Cheltenham, a class act such as SC should act on any course imo.
I thought Rocky Creek was heading for the 4miler? Would be suprised if he had enough gears to beat Dynaste anyway. Not really a favourite backer but the form of Dynaste looks bombproof in my humble opinion.
Course form is obviously very important Pants but I do think it’s more of a bonus more than a necessity when backing a particular horse. SC I think should be fine around Cheltenham judging by his only run there and we pretty much know he’ll stay if any of his runs this year are anything to go by. I just think there are more question marks about the first two in the betting than him that’s all. It’s hard to gauge what the form of the Hennessey will amount to imo, I dont think anything that’s happenned since is very conclusive and of course the form of SDC can be tied into that through Tidal Bay. I think the form of Tidal Bay is key. Just how good is he? I guess we won’t really know until the form lines collide in about a months time. My bets are on now anyway and, win or lose, just looking forward finding out.
Of course the best outcome (although not for my pocket) would be seeing Imperial Commander bolting past them all up the hill and saying "remember me?"
I see nearly all the 25’s about Captain Chris has disappeared with a couple of bookies now going 16’s. Think his run in the Ascot chase will put him spot on for the big one and has had what would seem on the face of it, an ideal preperation. If he hadnt got the second last all wrong it would have been quite a finish imo much like when Bobs Worth came up against Cue Card over the same sort of trip at Newbury yet prices are poles apart?
Interesting to read Cormacks’ Cheltenham stats regarding Paul Nicholls runners. Would seem to point Silviniaco Contis way. Would be my idea of the winner if I could only back one to win. As it is I’m greedy and more of an each way backer at the festival so I’ll stick with the Captain.
While on the subject of SC, I cant remember a horse so impressive in each of his runs leading up to the Gold Cup and not being favourite, Bobs Worth wins the Hennesey recieving nearly half a stone from Tidal Bay with that being his only run this season, Sir Des Champs only just gets the better of what we assume now is a non stayer in Flemenstar (at the third attempt) and yet both are ahead of SC who has won 3 graded races this year and won them all in style????? Madness.I think Celestial Halo could get placed in this, not tried 3 miles yet but classier than most of the entries. Generally 50/1 at the moment and this his only target. Goes very well first time out also.
Have to agree, I couldn’t have Darlan either. The form from last years supreme and triumph hurdles looks all over the place, although to be fair the ground has been terrible for quite a long time now to really know. I’m sure Cinders and Ashes will show better form at the festival on better ground for example. To be vying for favouritism on the back of his recent win seems a little false given, as Couteau says, the race turned into a bit of a sprint. Dont like backing favourites at the festival anyway, when I back a favourite I fully expect them to oblige and they rarely do.
And yes Pants, good skills on spotting the 9/2 on the Fly, just hope you backed it e/w!
Good performance from Hurricane Fly there. Dont see how you think I underestimate all Irish form tho when I’m quite obviously just talking about the races HF has contested?? Anyone can see the Irish 2m hurdle races (grade1) are nowhere near as strong as the ones run in the UK.
Strange run from Binocular, more of a training excersise to my eye. When HF went to pick up the front 2, McCoy didnt even attempt to go with him. Thought Binocular would need the run and that result was always on the cards but wouldn’t want to back HF on the back of that, 9/4’s almost as much of a joke as 4/6 was last year.I suppose it comes down to how strong you think the races HF has contested in Ireland are. Personally I would like to have seen him travel over to England more but there we go. He might well win easily today as, like I’ve said, Binoculars record 2nd time out has been more impressive than when making his seasonal debut. That’s not to say he won’t run well today, he has run well first time out in the past. Purely looking at the last 3 Champion Hurdles, I dont see where the massive gulf in prices comes from.
Boylesports offering 9/2 for HF to win Irish and English champion hurdles, seen as today is as close to a cert as you can get think it’s worth a dabble as he’ll probably shorten a tad after today so will be nice to be sitting on 9/2 for the horse who imo they have tp beat come the big day.
I wouldn’t be too sure about The Fly winning todays race being a certainty, to my mind there wasn’t a lot to choose between him and Binocular last year. There’s an argument HF wasn’t right last year but I dont see he’s done very much this year to suggest he’s any different. Go Native was cantering all over him a couple of runs back before he fell and if he hadn’t of fallen, HF would probably be bigger than 9/2 anyway. LTO he was visually impressive although I doubt Unacompanied, Captain Cee Bee or Thousand Stars would be even considered for the Champion Hurdle this time round.
Even 2 years ago when everything went right for HF in the run up to Cheltenham, he started the race 11/4 in what seemed to be his peak.
Trying to be realistic, it will be a very tough assignment for either Hurricance Fly or Binocular to regain the crown come march but the prices are so far apart at the moment that if you’re really thinking of backing HF, an e/w on Binny seems sensible. Vibes coming from Hendersons yard regarding Binocular have been very good.
Also probably worth noting Binocular has a very decent record 2nd time out which should come in the champion itself.Okay, think I’ve decided on this one. Really was hoping for a bit of decent ground at christmas as would really liked to see Riverside Theatre have another crack at 3 miles on good ground, convinced it would bring some improvement out of him the way he runs his races. Having said that I still think the Ryanair form from last year will be key this year.
Not too keen on any of the four who battled out the finish in the Lexus this year as they all finished too close together to really take any one of them out the race. They’re either all Gold Cup winning class or the form isn’t that strong, I think the latter will be the case this year (3 decent Ryanair candidates outstayed by the only real proven stayer in the race, Tidal Bay).
That race only confirmed my thoughts about the proximity of Bobs Worth in relation to Tidal Bay in the Hennessey where BW recieved nearly half a stone, good form but 3/1??? Like I said before I might be tempted if he was a sensible price given his impressive Cheltenham form.
So the one I’ll pin my hopes on at the odds will beCaptain Chris
. Badly outpaced in the Ryanair last year before staying on stoutly up the hill to claim 4th was decent considering how his season went prior to the festival. This year looks to going a lot better for him and his excellant 2nd to Long Run in the King George again outlined the need for a proper test of stamina. A lot was made in hindsight of the King George that Long Run was the only runner in the race to have the conditions to suit and yet CC got to within a neck.
We know from the previous 2 festivals that the Captain relishes that Cheltenham hill, stamina we now know shouldn’t be a problem and being an Arkle winner, neither should speed. The only issue is that tendency to sometimes jump right-handed. However, it didnt stop him winning the Arkle and imo it’s not as big a question mark as most of the other entries have to answer.20/1
looks a good a bet as anything me thinks.
Now just the matter of sorting out all the other races.
