[andrewhill343]

Just wondering about your post Equitrack about MdB only running to a mark of around 162, which may be correct. (you’re not the only person I’ve heard say that)

My point is if Denman had finished 23 lengths ahead of the field as MdB did with ease, would that mean Denman had only run to the same mark, or would we all be thinking the GC is Denmans as long as he turns up.

Pleased its worked out this way as the GC holds a lot more interest now.
Might get a decent priced winner out of it.

[andrewhill343]

confident old bear

[andrewhill343]

I’m probably on my own here but 9/2 Denman has got to be chance worth taking hasn’t it?
When having a bet at the festival, you’re always having a bet on the trainers having them right at the same time. Paul Nicholls has proved one of the best over the years and if he gets Denman fit, he’s simply a massive price.
Take MdB out the race yesterday and after over 300 days off with heart problems (no problem yesterday apparently) comes back and beats what should’ve been a race fit Albertas Run by 25 lengths with the rest nowhere to be seen.
If he beats Albertas Run by that distance at cheltenham, he should near enough win the race I would’ve thought.

On a track that both the owner and trainer have both admitted in the past would never suit him, dont think its a bad a run as a lot of people are saying after such a long spell off. He was jumping to his left again yesterday which wouldnt have helped either.

I wasnt suprised at all with what MdB done, this horse is just pulling more out the bag every time he runs. Don’t think he’ll cope with the undulations of Cheltenham as well as some but a decent e/w option none the less.

[andrewhill343]

exactly, he is improving all of a sudden very quickly…. couldnt believe my luck when I saw his price…. it’s been a very good day!

[andrewhill343]

Worth noting that since my post about Powerstation being 50/1 last week, he’s now as little as 16’s…. Seems suspicious since he hasnt run.

[andrewhill343]

Can see Afsoun winning this one, is getting back to his best after a disappointing time over fences, won the same race last year and will handle the ground.

Will be nice to see Osana back in action but think he’ll need the run

Celestial Halo has obvious claims but with Osana who can also make the running there’s likely to be a good pace and can see Afsoun picking them off on the run in.

Dont know what effect if any at all this race will have on the champion hurdle betting. If Celestial Halo gets beat by 10 lengths, will we get a race with a decent priced favourite?……probably not.

[andrewhill343]

Anybody know if Powerstation will be going for this? On course form and through form with Fair Along, must be worth a look at the 50’s on offer…e/w value imo

[andrewhill343]

Mourad is the one I’m on, managed to get 33’s only a couple of weeks back. He’s now 16’s with a lot of bookmakers and expect him to be shorter after the weekend.

Only one race to date, just touched off by another interesting prospect, Jumbo Rio, with the pair leaving the well thought of Ebidayan wondering which way they went.
Very useful recruit from the flat, rated 100+, and you would think he would improve next time as he ran green for a long way on his debut, especially when asked to pick up.

[andrewhill343]

Does anyone know if Palomar will be going for this? Be my bet if he did.

Any thoughts?

[andrewhill343]

Another factor we should take into consideration is the high winds at the time of the race which don’t do front runners any favours.

That was to be my next point, seems a more likely reason for the races being slower than the year before, I just cant accept the ground itself was riding slower last year than when Sublimity won it.

I was at Champion Hurdle day last year and the wind was the most ferocious I’ve experienced…… I would of got up the cheltenham hill if the wind was blowing the right way. (Sadly it wasnt and got blown into the guiness village instead… )

[andrewhill343]

Also think he would of won the supreme, although I piled into him after his Navan win, didnt really think of the supremes until after i’d backed him.
Was angling the question more towards people who have since said the race itself was one of the worst.

Thanks for your thoughts anyway, really do think this race is alot more interesting than previous years purely because the amount of horses being written off. (seems to be one every week)
You just know one of them will be bang on come the big day.

Where’s Osana btw?, he might just be a horse who peaked too early last year.

I’ll stop now before I start making a case for everything in the race, dont want it to sound like that, Snap Tie is my only loser in that race……. I think one loser per race is enough!

[andrewhill343]

Cheers Friggo, so how good was the ground in 2007 and how bad in 2008? Because if true, it changes everything. And also, if the ground in 2007 was riding better than last year, then how come "officially" it was described as soft cuz last year was no worse than good/soft surely?

Hard to believe the people who decide the going could get it that wrong at such a prestigeous event.
Might just hold on to my Snap Tie anti-post and leave it there for the festival if thats true because like most people i guess, I only go on whats reported (ground-wise) rather than walking the course myself.

[andrewhill343]

There will be three Binocular’s in the Champion Hurdle……….my fellow and the two pair Ruby and Barry G will need to try and see which way he went

I always thought blinkers looked much better strapped to a horses head rather than human ass

Sorry Fists, just been reading the Arkle forum and couldnt resist a dig. Why so many bad feelings flying around, thought horse racing was supposed to be fun?

[andrewhill343]

Have to agree Gaz, although the ground was officially good in his last race, there’s no way it was and the jockey would of known the ground was no good from the start anyway. The horse was just given a run out (apart from a few half-hearted shakes of the reigns). I backed him at 25’s ew a long time ago, should’ve waited i know.

Think he needs a track like chelts to bring the best out of him, decent 3rd in the supremes last year giving the best part of 10lbs to Binocular would tend to confirm that. The value might be to bet him in running though as he will probably be one of the first to be off the bridle.

Of the others, still cant see why Sublimity is so big. Last year it was well documented his preperations were all wrong so it was no suprise he didnt win it. Also cant understand why so many people believe his champion hurdle success was one of the worst.
Any horse who runs 3:55 on soft ground around cheltenham will surley win wont they?(even on better ground) Which just makes me think that most of his knockers still feel bitter about not backing the horse… i felt quite nice about the 20/1 i had btw

If you look at the last time it was run on soft ground, the race was won by Alderbrook in ’95, which was won in a time of 4:03. With that in mind, can anyone tell me what was so bad about Sublimitys champion win?

[andrewhill343]

Andrew,
"Mourad" always looked like he could make a better hurdler than
a Group horse on the flat. He is a very well bred 4yo (Sinndar, Kahyasi dam) trained by J.Oxx for the "Aga Khan" he is now with W, Mullins
the man for training Novice hurdlers this year, You should get at least 33/1
for the triumph hurdle if you ask your bookmaker!

Cheers mate

[andrewhill343]

Not exactly a champion hurdle post, but has anyone heard of a horse called Mourad? Wondered if there was a price for any of the novices at cheltenham…. 100+ on the flat and looks as if he’s going to be even better over the timbers. Cant find a price anywhere.

[andrewhill343]

I think AP would disagree with you on that score. Best the has ever ridden is the most recent war cry! He only beat last years Triumph Hurdle and CH winner in a canter

Sublimity’s only win on heavy ground was against a bunch of second rate boats at Navan.He was 1/3 for pete’s sake and the second never won a race in his life.

First of all, jockeys always say that about a horse they’ve recently won well on. It’s nothing new.

Secondly, I know Sublimity’s win at Navan was against a bunch of no hopers, that wasn’t my point. My point was how much better he travels and quickens on softer ground (the reason I took the 20’s on him after seeing it). Granted he won a few decent flat races on good/firm but the fact he won off a flat mark of 108 in soft ground would tend to back me up (never even reached for the stick)

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