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RIVERSIDE THEATRE. Improves nicely from year to year. Like the way he won the Ryanair last year, and similar improvement this year should see him in the shake up. Dont think this will be a classic year for staying chasers, might be wrong but we’ve clearly been spoilt in recent years with the likes of Kauto and Denman and Long Run run may well have peaked already. That is if RS goes this route, any ideas?
Hardly an original idea but Little Josh is below the mark he won this off 2 years ago and with the NTD in good form, could be a nice e/w. 100’s on betfair at the mo, might waste a fiver on that.
Binocular cannot possibly outstay Hurricane Fly can he? Didn’t HF win a two and a half mile grade one on soft ground out-battling Solwhit on his way to winning the Champion last year? Whilst Binocular has undoubted class, I would also say his best chance of regaining his crown would be to use his speed at a stage in the race where Hurricane Fly cant get back at him, ie the end.
To me, looking through HF’s form, the only thing left in question is his acceleration against an animal like Binocular when on top of his game. (clutching at straws a bit I know)
But in the interest of debate, last year HF beat Peddlers cross and Oscar Whisky into 2nd and 3rd respectively…. two horses I always thought would be seen in better light over a longer distance. Indeed OW is going for the stayers hurdle this year and going back to the 2010 neptune, I thought PC needed every yard of the intermediate trip.
Binocular has the perfect mix of speed and stamina for two miles and is a natural a hurdler as I’ve ever seen, a different proposition. Obviously nobody knows if he retains the same ability of two years ago but if he does, HF might well be beaten into 3rd behind Binny and of course, the 2012 Champion Hurdle winner…..ZARKANDAR!I think China Rock should wins this. The way last seasons novices finished in a bunch in the RSA probably tells us this probably isn’t a vintage crop of second season chasers imo. Possibly with the exception of Quel Esprit who could turn out to be anything.
Nap – Hurricane Fly
EW – What a Friend (40’s)
Lay – Grands Crus
Handicap plot horse – Knockara beau, Festival handicap chase.(assuming he ends up there, would be his best chance imo).Nah, cant have Magnanimity at all, just aint up to scratch, Even if he wins on sunday, dont think this years Gold Cup winner is going to come out of this race possibly with the exception of Quel Esprit(but he’ll have to put in a foot perfect round of jumping against horses inferior to what he’ll meet at cheltenham)
I think China Rock can take the Hennessey anyway, as long as it aint too soft.
As regards What a Friend, Denman wont be eyeballing him this time round.
If Long Run underperforms by a few lengths and WAF improves a few which isnt inconcievable, going by last years race he’ll play some part in the finish surely?
That’s where my money’s going anyway, 40/1 will look massive on the day.Have to say I haven’t even thought about Magnanimity until you mentioned him, so I’ll spend a bit of time watching his runs.
Like I said, can’t see past the first two in the market but at the current prices that are unlikely to change much, couldn’t really back either of them. For what it’s worth, heart says Kauto, head says Long Run like many.
I always prefer looking for big prices at small stakes rather than the other way so in that respect What a Friend stands out like a sore thumb. Wasn’t even considering him as I thought rather misguidingly that another tilt at the Grand National was on the agenda.
Got home today to read Paul Nicholls saying Cheltenham and Punchestowns Gold Cups would be the two he’s aiming at.40/1….. are you kidding? I’m on(but not before I check out Magnanimity)
My comment about Long Run and Kauto in a reverse forcast being a festival banker was a little bit tongue in cheek for a start mainly because it’s dangerous to think there’s any such thing.
My point about Grands Crus was that I think he’ll be suited by the Ryanair trip than that of the Gold Cup, (shades of Albertas Run in that respect). His victory over Champion Court on his first run over fences to me has been his most impressive to date.
I agree he wouldnt have usually gone to the front that early in the feltham but his cruising speed at this stage of his career probably outweighs his staying credentials imo.
I would rather see him go for the Ryanair this year then maybe step up to the Gold Cup next year rather like Imperial Commander did. I see this as being a better alternative than RSA to Gold Cup. Many horses over the last few years especially have found the RSA a very hard race to get over and going for the Gold Cup as a novice has always been dodgy, certainly wouldnt bet my hard earned money on it.
It’s not that I think Grands Crus lacks ability, just think at the moment there are better stayers around.Andrew
Do you really believe Kauto Star would be so highly rated if his record away from Cheltenham was no better that this ….cut & pasted from my earier post…..
Fell (Newmill)
Won (Bt Exotic Dancer)
2nd (Denman, KS jumped badly)
Won (Bt sick Denman)
Fell (Imperial Commander)
3rd (Long Run, KS Jumped badly once again)Yes I do.
2009 Gold cup… Lets take Denman out of the equation for one moment. Instead, would rather focus on the 15.5 lengths and 21.5 lengths he beat Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges respectively, both officially rated 174 at the time. To my mind, this was every bit as good as what he’s ever acheived away from Cheltenham.
Okay he fell in the race won by Newmill, but for a six year old having his first run at Cheltenham and in the Champion Chase I might add, If you cant let that one go, I feel you’re clutching at straws a tad.
Next time up at Cheltenham he wins the Gold Cup at his first attempt at the age of 7, nothing wrong with that.
Then he gets beat by Denman the following year, who to me put up the best performance I’ve ever seen in a Gold Cup. Simply awesome. Not going by winning distances or times here, but just by the sheer manner he done it in, had everything behind him at it a long long way from home.
Next, 2009 Gold Cup…. enough said on that!
2010 Gold Cup, made mistakes, fell in the race won by Imperial Commander, no excuses. A bad run.
Last year it’s clear now he wasnt right all season but finished closer to Long Run at Cheltenham than he did at Kempton.So in all reality, apart from his poor show in the 2010 renewal, his performances at Cheltenham are as good as anywhere else.
Ps, KS got beaten by Snoopy Loopy round Haydock a few years back unseating at the last when looked to be held anyway. Does that mean he’s not as effective there as well? Four out of five betfair chases would suggest otherwise.
Am finding the whole argument of whether Grands Crus should run in the Gold Cup or RSA a little bit pointless as I dont think he can win either! I might be missing something obvious, but I wasnt that impressed with his Feltham win. I personally was more impressed with Silviniaco Conti as far as Festival credentials are concerned. Its my view that SC was the one staying on better of the two. Obviously any horse that finishes 2nd to Big Bucks is going to have a few admirers but what does it actually amount to? Punchestowns and Time for Rupert who gave BB just a good a race in previous World Hurdles have hardly gone on to be superstars albeit very good animals in their own right.
In short, I like Grands Crus but wouldnt be surprised if we saw him line up in the 2013 Ryanair after being found out this year.To my mind I really think this is a two horse race which if only for the story, I hope Kauto can storm clear up the hill to shut everyone up who still say Cheltenham isnt his course….Please.
He gets beat at Cheltenham and people say Kempton’s his track, he gets beat at Kempton and all of a sudden Cheltenham’s his track. Morons. As he’s proven time and time again, give him some grass and a few fences to jump and he’ll outshine anything anywhere when on form.So I guess what I’m saying is Kauto Star/Long Run reverse forcast….festival banker
Wonder what this will do to official ratings. Will the handicapper now admit the over inflated rating of Long Run(imo)? If not, Kauto’s just served up somewhere near 190 hasn’t he?… and done it going away.
It’s hard to gauge how fit Long Run was compared with Kauto, but my suspisions are he was fit enough if good enough. He stayed on remarkably after being under pressure a long way out which isnt something I would usually associated with a horse who’s lacking fitness. I think, wierd as it sounds, the 11 year old they were going to retire has just done the 6 year old King George and Gold Cup winner for speedHave to say I’m suprised looking at the runners for this that Frankel is rated 3Lbs higher than Canford Cliffs. Hasn’t CC done/achieved alot more and beaten better opponents?
The weight allowance will most likely win the day but as a slow pace may be the best way of beating Canford Cliffs, I might have an e/w flutter on Dream Ahead reversing the form. If it turns into a sprint, he’s no 33/1 shot.I quite like HillQuinz as a name. Seriously tho, Quinz is 150+ on betfair at the moment, must be aimed at the race after his victory in the racing post chase. His appearance in the national was purely based on his weight imo, not on the fact he might enjoy the fences. He didnt look to enjoy the experience and was quite rightly pulled up, no harm done. He’ll only need to improve a few pounds to be a realistic contender to Long Run (of course the official handicapper might say otherwise) and sure to have a big, big season. Would be more of an interest if he went for the King George, looked very impressive going right-handed the couple of races I’ve watched.
Ps. I couldnt call my child Rupert, but there’s another one anyway.
Just found out I’m gonna be a dad for the first time and the babys due on gold cup day. Was gonna stick a few quid on Baby Run just for the crack. Is it unheard of for a racehorse to improve 40lbs at the grand old age of 12?
And this post has turned me into a group winner I think….. brilliant.
Day 4
130. Zarkander, res Smad Place 100pts win
205. Soldatino, res Alavain 100pts e/w (Banker)
240. Sybarite, res Bobs Worth 200pts win
320. Denman, res Kempes 200pts win
400. On the Fringe, res Just Amazing 100pts win
440. Sire des Champs, res Qaspal 100pts win
515. Shoreacres, res Sports Line 100pts win
But in the interest of debate, last year HF beat Peddlers cross and Oscar Whisky into 2nd and 3rd respectively…. two horses I always thought would be seen in better light over a longer distance. Indeed OW is going for the stayers hurdle this year and going back to the 2010 neptune, I thought PC needed every yard of the intermediate trip.
