2012 Gold Cup

Am finding the whole argument of whether Grands Crus should run in the Gold Cup or RSA a little bit pointless as I dont think he can win either! I might be missing something obvious, but I wasnt that impressed with his Feltham win. I personally was more impressed with Silviniaco Conti as far as Festival credentials are concerned. Its my view that SC was the one staying on better of the two. Obviously any horse that finishes 2nd to Big Bucks is going to have a few admirers but what does it actually amount to? Punchestowns and Time for Rupert who gave BB just a good a race in previous World Hurdles have hardly gone on to be superstars albeit very good animals in their own right.
In short, I like Grands Crus but wouldnt be surprised if we saw him line up in the 2013 Ryanair after being found out this year.

To my mind I really think this is a two horse race which if only for the story, I hope Kauto can storm clear up the hill to shut everyone up who still say Cheltenham isnt his course….Please. He gets beat at Cheltenham and people say Kempton’s his track, he gets beat at Kempton and all of a sudden Cheltenham’s his track. Morons. As he’s proven time and time again, give him some grass and a few fences to jump and he’ll outshine anything anywhere when on form.

So I guess what I’m saying is Kauto Star/Long Run reverse forcast….festival banker

Am finding the whole argument of whether Grands Crus should run in the Gold Cup or RSA a little bit pointless as I dont think he can win either! I might be missing something obvious, but I wasnt that impressed with his Feltham win. I personally was more impressed with Silviniaco Conti as far as Festival credentials are concerned. Its my view that SC was the one staying on better of the two. Obviously any horse that finishes 2nd to Big Bucks is going to have a few admirers but what does it actually amount to? Punchestowns and Time for Rupert who gave BB just a good a race in previous World Hurdles have hardly gone on to be superstars albeit very good animals in their own right.
In short, I like Grands Crus but wouldnt be surprised if we saw him line up in the 2013 Ryanair after being found out this year.

To my mind I really think this is a two horse race which if only for the story, I hope Kauto can storm clear up the hill to shut everyone up who still say Cheltenham isnt his course….Please. He gets beat at Cheltenham and people say Kempton’s his track, he gets beat at Kempton and all of a sudden Cheltenham’s his track. Morons. As he’s proven time and time again, give him some grass and a few fences to jump and he’ll outshine anything anywhere when on form.

So I guess what I’m saying is Kauto Star/Long Run reverse forcast….festival banker

Andrew

Do you really believe Kauto Star would be so highly rated if his record away from Cheltenham was no better that this ….cut & pasted from my earier post…..

Fell (Newmill)
Won (Bt Exotic Dancer)
2nd (Denman, KS jumped badly)
Won (Bt sick Denman)
Fell (Imperial Commander)
3rd (Long Run, KS Jumped badly once again)

"Sea Pigeon":3lpxejmb wrote: Do you really believe Kauto Star would be so highly rated if his record away from Cheltenham was no better that this ….cut & pasted from my earier post…..

Fell (Newmill)
Won (Bt Exotic Dancer)
2nd (Denman, KS jumped badly)
Won (Bt sick Denman)
Fell (Imperial Commander)
3rd (Long Run, KS Jumped badly once again)

I thought Kauto Star jumped as well as ever last year haved watched the race again, so much so that his jumping took him to the front with a circuit to go. Why do you say he jumped badly CS?

"as well as ever" (at Cheltenham), I’d agree.
RP notes in running saw it a bit like I do (quote)

"not fluent 10th, led 12th, headed 14th, led again 17th, hit 4 out…………blundered badly 2 out"

If it was Kempton I wouldn’t oppose him

Duplicate post

My comment about Long Run and Kauto in a reverse forcast being a festival banker was a little bit tongue in cheek for a start mainly because it’s dangerous to think there’s any such thing.
My point about Grands Crus was that I think he’ll be suited by the Ryanair trip than that of the Gold Cup, (shades of Albertas Run in that respect). His victory over Champion Court on his first run over fences to me has been his most impressive to date.
I agree he wouldnt have usually gone to the front that early in the feltham but his cruising speed at this stage of his career probably outweighs his staying credentials imo.
I would rather see him go for the Ryanair this year then maybe step up to the Gold Cup next year rather like Imperial Commander did. I see this as being a better alternative than RSA to Gold Cup. Many horses over the last few years especially have found the RSA a very hard race to get over and going for the Gold Cup as a novice has always been dodgy, certainly wouldnt bet my hard earned money on it.
It’s not that I think Grands Crus lacks ability, just think at the moment there are better stayers around.

Im not entirely convinced Grand Crus would win the RSA. The RSA generally isn’t a race for strong travelling free going horses. I question whether Grand Crus will truely stay. Horses who travel that powerfully often struggle to get home.

So i could never back him for the Gold Cup. Kauto Star/Long Run are entirely different propositions to Bobs worth etc. You aren’t going to have these horses crushed and way off the bridle like he had those at Kempton.

Whilst he’s an undoubtedly talented horse, i think this trip against these rivals would find him out. Kauto star even at the age of 12 has exceptional gears and Long Run will grind it out. I just can’t see him outpacing Kauto or outgrinding Long Run up the hill. As said earlier, i’d really think about taking in the Ryanair or Jewson with him, in which i think he’d be very hard to stop. In an ordinary year i’d actually think he’d be good enough to go close in an Arkle.

I like Midnight Chase now for this. I don’t think Grands Crus will run now, he’ll run in the Rsa instead where he’ll presumably hack up.

It just seems to me that Midnight Chase has far less questions to answer than anything else in the race. Ok you could argue that he lacks the class for a Gold Cup, but he was fifth last year and with another years worth of experience I feel he’s going to be very dangerous.

I just feel this years renewal has upset written all over it. Can we really be confident, about backing a horse in Long Run at 2-1, that has been beaten in both races this season?

A good friend of mine can’t seem to stop backing Long Run for this race, with the logic that he doesn’t think Kauto will stay or even get round, and that theres nothing else in the race (which could be a credible argument. for example when you look at Best Mate’s Gold Cup wins, he didn’t beat much. but Long Run isn’t a Best Mate) but he’s not for me.

I just think that horse’s that win more than one Gold Cup, if you look at it historically, are few and far between. It could well be that we’ve been spoilt in the last few years with animals like Best Mate and Kauto Star. I think the assumption was after he won last year, that Long Run would go on to win a few Gold Cups, but anyone who had any faith in that argument must be seriously doubting themseleves after what’s happened this season.

Also theres a thought in my mind that last years race left its mark on the horse. which is probably why so few horses back up their Gold Cup wins the following year, it tends to be a gruelling race which is difficult to recover from. Plus a lot of french horses tend to get worse over their racing careers (Master Minded springs to mind.)

Then when you look at the other opposition, it really does not look strong. I have serious doubts that sychronised is quick enough to win a Gold Cup, for all that he was impressive last time, that was a weak race compared to this and does he have the cruising speed?

So to summarise, its Midnight Chase all day

He’s just a horse who has absolutely no chance. He’s a Cheltenham specialist and deserves his place in the field but they’re looking for 3rd at best.