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All aboard Ashkazar for a bit of e/w thieving, I’m thinking there’s not a lot between him and Grand Crus yet the prices are vastly different. Should be 3rd fav at least in my jumbled opinion.
Seriously tho, his first run over 3 miles on new years day, carrying top weight, was very impressive considering how fast they went. He might improve for that first crack at the trip and seems to be better in the spring. There’s a lot worse 33/1 shots than this fella.
Day 3
130. Robinson Collonges, res Wishful Thinking 100pts win
205. Kayf Aramis, res Barwell Bridge 100pts e/w
240. Albertas Run, res Kalahari King 100pts win
320. Ashkazar, res Mourad 150pts e/w (Banker)
400. Quartz de Thaix, res Matuhi 100pts win
440. Junior, res Minella Theatre 100pts win
515. Plato, res Kings Troop 100pts winDay 2 selections
130. Aberdale, res Chamirey 100pts win
205. So young, res Minella Class 100pts win
240. Time For Rupert (Banker), res 1833 200pts win
320. Master Minded, res Captain Cee Bee 200pts win
400. Song of Songs, res Aachen 100pts e/w
440. Rock of Deuville, res Plan A 100pts win
515. Lord Gale, res Ericht 100pts win.Just realised, I’ve noticed people including myself (followed suit) have put up all the 4 days selections at once. Sure we done it a day at a time last year with the scores and leaderboard updated after each day. Is it supposed to be following the same format this year??
Day 1
1:30. Gibb River, res Magens star 50pts e/w
2:05. Finnians Rainbow, res Realt Dubh 100pts win
2:40. Reve de Sivola(Banker), res Fair Along 100pts e/w
3:20. Hurricane Fly, res Khyber Kim 200pts win
4:00. Poker de Sivola, res Sizing Australia 100pts win
4:40. Quevega, res Laccordioniste 200pts win
5:15. Quartz de Thaix, res Tullamore Dew 50pts e/wChampion Hurdle
1. Hurricane Fly
2. Menorah
3. Khyber Kim
4. Oscar WhiskyQMCC
1. Master Minded
2. Sizing Europe
3. Big Zeb
4. SomersbyWorld Hurdle
1. Ashkazar
2. Big Bucks
3. Grand Crus
4. FiveforthreeGold Cup
1. Kempes
2. Imperial Commander
3. Denman
4. Kauto StarWill send my cheque when everyone has emailed, no point unless we have all ten in on it, might as well stick the tenner somewhere else….. come on guys!
Longs Run’s current handicap mark of 179 would have been good enough to win 17 of the last 20 Cheltenham Gold Cups based on the ratings of the winners at the time of winning. Not bad eh for a horse who is still only 5.
Madison du Berlais’ 23 length beating of Denman and 48 length beating of Albertas Run in the Levy Board chase in 2009 for example should have been good enough to win the following Gold Cup if you think the form of the 2 courses match up. However, he gets to Cheltenham and gets hammered 43 lengths by Kauto Star. The point about the two tracks in question is a very relative one I feel.
Would be interesting to know what rating people would give each Gold Cup entry purely based on all known Cheltenham form and taking into account the current stage of their career?My idea in order of favouritsm is as follows.
Imperial Commander 185
Long Run 165 (feeling generous)
Kauto Star 180
Denman 180
Kempes & Pandorama – (interesting duo)
Midnight Chase 165 (assuming he improves as he has)
Tidal Bay 170 (could anything between 0-190 tho)
Neptune Collonges 171Obvious similarities can be drawn between Long run and Kauto Star, judging on what the’ve both done around Kempton. The thing is Kauto Star has looked just as good around Cheltenham on more than one occasion whereas Long Run (as of yet) simply hasn’t. KS is still at the grand old age of 11, mixing it with the best in the business.
The only way Long Run will ever compare to Kauto imo, is if he can sustain true championship form for as many years to come and on a variety of tracks. Never mind ratings, the hanicapper decides these, and anyway I believe the handicapper was slightly harsh not to break into that magical 200 mark after his 2009 King George success, watch the video again. Now that is a good a performance as there has ever been on a racecourse to my mind. If anyone can show me a better one I’d love to see it.
I hope Long Run turns out to be as good if not better than the great Kauto because if he does we’re in for a special few years but all we really know is he’s the best around Kempton Park at this moment in time.Fancy Lord Gale in this, looked quite green when he hit the front on his only start but the way he took up the running had a touch of class about it.
As i have already stated within this thread, i think Denman is the one to beat this season.
However, i keep going back to his run in the Paddy Power. Yes, it was over 2 miles 5, and yes, he was giving a lot of weight away to Little Josh and Dancing Tornado, who finished ahead of him that day.
Taking into account the claims both horses were recieving that day, Long Run was only giving Little Josh 8lbs, which in all honesty should have been with a Gold Cup winners compass, especially one who was thought of as an Arkle maybe the year before.
Does anyone think Imperial Commander would have been beaten in that race under the same conditions? If not, and if you can find a match bet between him and Long Run, that just might be the best bet of the whole festival!Whatever the stats say about Long Runs chances, Nicky Henderson admitted after the Paddy Power the race got him out of his comfort zone. For a horse who he said the season before had pace to burn and could really contest either the Arkle or RSA, I find it hard to believe he can win a championship race round cheltenham when he couldn’t even win a handicap off what effectively was a OR of 153 (taking his claimer into account).
Midnight Chase won a handicap off 155 over something like the Gold Cup trip last time out to put things into perspective.
Long Run needs to improve a hell of a lot to win imo not just this year but for years to come as well. If Big Bucks goes chasing next year it could well be another year he has to wait, not to mention Time for Rupert and Weapons Amnesty and whoever else emerges thereafter.
He might turn out to be every bit as good as the hype suggests, but 9/2?…Really? Beating a below par Kauto doesnt make him a world beater, Snoopy Loopy done that once and never won again.I think if anything is to beat Binocular, they’ll have to travel with him which imo rules out Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Oscar Whisky(only judged on his Supreme running btw).
Merely playing devils advocate here but Captain Cee Bee didn’t travel as well as Binny in the Supreme yet still managed to mow him down up the hill.
Very true but I think it’s worth noting Binocular was a 4yo running against 6 and 7yos and strengthened enormously the following summer. Anyway, what astounds me most looking back to them days is Binocular was rated 169 as a 4yo!
Have to agree with wilsonl, this race is one of the most frustrating i’ve ever tried to work out! I’m sticking with Binocular purely on the basis of watching last years Champion and Supremes over and over.
Khyber Kim’s niggling away in my mind knowing he’ll be specifically trained for it this time round. I think if anything is to beat Binocular, they’ll have to travel with him which imo rules out Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Oscar Whisky(only judged on his Supreme running btw). So with that said I guess I’m thinking of Hurricane fly, Khyber Kim and possibly Dunguib as the three to turn Binny over unless there’s to be a massive shock.
Dunguib is interesting. His jumping lto was much better than in any other previous race and if his jockey can have him up with the pace and not take the wide route the whole way round, I think he’ll be in with a great chance as long as he’s delivered as late as possible. (seemed to idle latest, not sure many horses get away with that in an uphill finish where momentum is everything
).
Binocular, well…. enough said.
Hurricane Fly imo is the one that makes this race so hard to weigh up. No matter what your fancy in this is, I think everyone would agree this is the horse that makes every bet a nervous one.1. Binocular
2. Dunguib
3. Khyber KimThat’s my idea of the first 3 home although it wouldnt really suprise me to see Hurricane Fly fill any one of those places so all in all still as confused as ever
What I consider to be the main point, and indeed a point that people fail to realise is that the recent equality issue regarding car insurance isnt going to benefit anyone. For example, say a male is paying £100 a year and female £50 (cheap I know) does anyone actually believe with this new ruling that insurers are going to meet half-way, ie- both sexes will be paying £75 from now on?
I personally think women will have to start paying ‘mens rates’ instead, making this court ruling a win-win for insurance companies. I’d rather my wife was getting cheaper car insurance even if it is a bit sexist, our bills are OUR bills and not seperate ones so in real terms we’re better off how it was.
I think we can all get a bit carried away with ‘isms’ sometimes and all it really does is shoots us in the foot. I may be completely wrong but sadly I can see this being just another example.Toughest of the "big" races for me – really difficult to side with one or other of Menorah or Peddlers Cross as both are having their first "senior" year – Both look real classy battlers but neither have raced top class in form rivals.
Hurricane fly is really difficult to call – could be all or nothing really as its hard to know what beating Solwhit every other weekend amounts to.
On the day with decent ground and if Binocular looks the part id be tempted to pile in but at this stage id be interested in who else likes Oscar Whiskey?? He’s really lightly raced and is a bit under the radar compared to Menorah and Peddlers.
Am thinking of a place bet and small win bet.I’ve also been very taken with Oscar Whiskys performances so far this year but a break-neck 2 mile pace might just find him out at this level imo. It’s fair enough to think he might have been a lot closer to Menorah last year if he hadn’t made a couple of mistakes at a crucial time (he might even have won) but that said, Menorah I feel has improved a hell of a lot since. Also worth noting both times Barry Geraghty has ridden the horse this year (most notably last time over 2 miles) his first thought has been he needs 3 miles. Now I know jockeys aren’t always the best judges but I cant imagine him saying it if he’d just jumped off Binocular or Hurricane Fly for example.
Best picks of the entries so far:
Grimes is on Grand Crus for the World Hurdle @ 12/1
Kauto Kid is on Medermit for the Arkle @ 14/1
Thehorsesmouth is on Pandorama for the Gold Cup @ 50/1
Andrewhill 343 is on Kempes for the Gold Cup @ 50/1
fivelong days is on A media luz for the Triumph @33/1
milbear0 is on Realt Dubh for the Arkle @ 25/1
darren is on Finians Rainbow for the Arkle @ 10/1
Limestone Lad is on Ghizao for the Arkle @ 12/1Very humble not to include your fine self who I believe to have a very nice 25/1 on Sprinter Sacre for the supreme novice hurdle. Maybe the pick of the lot.
