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Sam Thomas set to ride Denman according to Paul Nicholls and Ruby to ride Kauto. As you would expect I know but positve news none the less for Denmans chances. Thank you Kempes.
Denman is sure to be there abouts and if the breathing op does infact allow him to finish his races off better, he’ll be hard to beat. I just hope Sam Thomas can keep the ride, haven’t heard anything about that as yet, would be keen to know if anyone else has???
I really hope McCoy doesnt get the ride, the last thing the tank needs is being booted into every fence, he just needs telling when to serve it up. I would hope McCoy is on Kempes instead as I reckon he might just find that little bit extra in the horse that I personally think he has.Ps. Not a trends person as such but here we have it:-
16 of the last 17 winners have been aged 7-9 and no 6 year old since Mill House in 1963 has won it…. that accounts for the first 4 in the betting
No reason why Razor Royale can’t repeat last year’s victory. Won last year off 141 and now runs off 142
20/1 too big
This was my next post, can’t see him out the first three, massive price.
Whilst I’m sticking firmly in the Binocular camp, Hurricane Fly should be shorter imo. I know I’ve mentioned in a previous post that I couldnt back him because of failing to even get to the festival the last two years. If however he gets to this one, he along with Khyber Kim are the only two I can really see being able to turn Binny over.
Khyber Kims run last year very much reminded me of Binoculars run 2 years ago when AP allowed Punjabi and Celestial Halo get first run on him. KK travelled superbly last year and stayed on up the hill. I dont believe there was an awful lot between the first two (certainly not as much as the bookmakers have it). I cant see Paddy Brennan making the same mistake 2 years in a row and his mount will have been trained specifically for this years renewal as opposed to last year when it was all about finding out if he was good enough. It would be very foolish to read too much into what he’s done since. NTD will know exactly what he’s got and his price is way way too big.
If the Fly makes it and in the same form as we’ve seen in his last few races, he’s the only other horse I can see having a high enough cruising speed to really trouble Binocular, and we know he stays. The only thing I would say in terms of any chinks in the armour of HF is that his jumping might get him beat, not that I think his jumping is bad (infact I think it’s decent enough) but it’s fair to say Binoculars is far superior.It didn’t look like a great race beforehand, but Kempes was very impressive, and I now rate hime a live conder for the big one. Finished strongly in soft ground, bound to be improving, a sound jumper, has a touch of class. If the commander doesn’t run his race, Kempes could take the title
My feelings exactly, 130 on betfair just a couple of short weeks ago all of a sudden looking very very sweet. More convinced now than ever this race is wide open. Todays Hennessey has just reaffirmed what I was saying about the lexus, that Kempes was going as good as anything in the race at the time of his departure. Pure guess work i know (as somebody pointed out) but not a bad guess none-the-less. The way Kempes swallowed up the ground on the leaders, and on ground unsuitable was as impressive as anything I’ve seen this year. Good ground and the extra distance will only serve him better regardless of what the breeding suggests. Trends are only trends until they’re broken, then they’re only stats.
Still going to have a few quid on Denman tho. No horse as ever captured my imagination like him. Cheltenham wouldnt be Cheltenham without a centimental wager now would it?Best E/W value for me at this time is Ashkazar. Before the greatwood hurdle Phillip Hobbs was saying if Menorah could win off top weight with his rating of 151, he’d have every chance in the champion. He won and was installed one of the favourites for the race
Ashkazar stepped up to 3 miles for the first time on new years day and won the same race that propelled Big Bucks into grade one company a couple of years ago. He did this off top weight, off a rating of 152 (a similer rating to Big Bucks back then). If there is to be an upset, this might be it. He’s been a horse that has had so much expected of him over the years. He was being touted as a possible champion hurdle winner, looked on paper an exiting chaser in the making and somehow hasnt quite fulfilled his early promise.
Perhaps stepping up to 3 miles will prove to be the key, you certainly cant argue with his record. 1 run, 1 c/d win.200/1 on betfair is way too big imo. Pipe often wins with his ‘outsider’.
That’s where you and I differ Andrew
I’d say I’m well in the minority in thinking that Pandorama has more speed than he’s given credit for. In the Knight Frank, he was about 3 lengths off the leaders turning out of the back straight if my memory serves me correctly and as soon as Carberry gave him a shake of the reins he picked up the lengths with relative ease. I think he has plenty of speed for a Gold Cup, but THIS Gold Cup is no ordinary one.
I personally think Pandorama has a decent enough cruising speed, just think after 3 miles round Cheltenham on better ground he’ll be found wanting for that extra gear in the last couple of furlongs that’s needed to win a Gold Cup. Unless of course he does a Denman and can gallop the rest into submission as to eliminate that need, but i dont see that as his style of running and anyway performances like that are few and far between.
Anyhow, the interesting thing about this years Gold Cup is that there is a higher quantity of top class younger horses with realistic claims to the throne than in previous years. Would rather see it this way than taking the view that the older ones are in decline (convined Kauto, Denman and obviously IC could still run to somewhere near their best at lest one more time). The likes of Burton Port, Long Run, Pride of Dulcote to name a few should make for a great race, I’d be very surprised if there was 30 lengths between 1st and 3rd in this years race like there was last year.
Just when I say there’s nothing new coming along up pops Pandorama
He has Gold Cup written all over him.Assuming we’re talking about Pandorama winning the Lexus being the strength of his gold cup credentials, Kempes was probably going better when he fell two from home. McCoy was giving him a peach of a ride and just beginning to move up the gears without looking like being under any real pressure. Pandorama won’t improve for the better ground we’ll most likely see at Cheltenham but Kempes will. Not saying Kempes could win the Gold Cup (although I do feel he’ll be placed) but what I would say is if he can’t, i dont think Pandorama’s got much hope either. Wont have the speed imo.
Gold Cup
Kempes 50/1 res Denman 8/1
Champion Hurdle
Binocular 5/1 res Khyber Kim 16/1
Champion Chase
Big Zeb 9/2 res Captain Cee Bee 10/1
World Hurdle
Quevega 16/1 res Big Bucks 4/5
Arkle
Ghizao 12/1 res Get Me Out of Here 25/1
RSA
Fiveforthree 16/1 res Time for Rupert 4/1
Ryanair Chase
JY Vole 12/1 res Albertas Run 10/1
Triumph Hurdle
Smad Place 10/1 res Sam Winner 9/2
Supreme Novices
Zaidpour 5/1 res Toubab 14/1
Mares
Quevega 5/4 res Voler la Vadette 5/1
The senior cheallengers are so poor at the moment the novice Time For Rupert has more chance of beating Imperial Commander and Kauto Star than any of them do and he won’t run.
2 horse race if Kauto wins the King George with Denman fending off the rest.
I wouldnt be so quick to write off Denman. Paul Nicholls said before the Hennessey he might have to run the Tank every month this season. Straight after the race he changes his mind and says he goes straight to Cheltenham even without his usual prep in the AON. Quite a turn around for such an experienced trainer.
I did think myself if Denman can reproduce that level of form come march, he’ll be very difficult to beat.
After years of not seeing a horse reclaim the Gold Cup, could it be possible we see it twice in 4 years? It’s a funny old world and I wouldnt want to bet against it.
Makes you wonder if infact last years AON chase disaster was enough to stop Denman beating Imperial Commander, after all he didnt lose by that much.
8/1 e/w on Denman looks great value to me, more so than the 4’s you get on Kauto or Imperial to actually win the race.
The other horse that really interests me is Kempes. Huge price at the moment and not really sure why? His first try at 3 miles and he goes and beats China Rock, who himself could turn out to be a very decent yardstick when studying form. Kempes will be better for decent ground and will stay every yard, not short of pace either. While I’m not tempted to remortgae, £2 e/w at the bonkers odds Betfair are throwing away could be worth a punt.And then there’s the MULE….. we all know who I mean!
As far as Bicocular goes he looks as good as ever we know he’s much better than Starluck but Peddlars has yet to be beaten and he’s probably the last type of horse Binocular would want to be taking on at Cheltenham.
The one thing about Binocular that worries me is he’s only ever won one fight in his life and that was as a novice. Captain Cee Bee outpointed him as did Punjabi and Celestial Halo.
As I said before last years race to win he has to go to the front early and use what speed he has to slip them. He then becomes a very horse to peg back because stamina has never been his problem.
There lies the problem because Donald McCain will be all for using the very same tactics as his fellow stays well beyond 2 miles.
My problem with Menorah is he may not have enough toe to follow them through. On rflection his race the other day was a bit wierd to be honest. He was being niggled to catch up one second and the next he shot past like he had a thunderbolt hit his backside. Our eyes often deceive us and I believe Cue Card stopped like shot and made Menorah’s burst of speed look much better than it actually was. One things for sure he’d need a thunderbolt to hit his backside to go past these two who simply don’t stop.
The one horse who has the speed and the fight to take them on is Hurrcane Fly. I know a couple of you have pointed out Thoasnad Stars was close to him but that race was run in such a manner there was never going to be a huge distance between the first few home.
Solwhit is as good as they come in these type of races and the fact Hurrcane Fly beat him quite easily in the end speaks volumes about the horse. I think a few people have forgotten just how easily he kicked Go Native into touch not once but twice when in between time Go natve was winning everything he was aimed at including the Supreme Novices at the Festival albeit by the skin of his teeth.
Fair to say Peddlars Cross is a few pounds better than Go Native on a line through Starluck but Hurrcane Fly beat Go Native pointless when they met.
Some bring up the fact he was off the course and say he’s injury prone. My reply to that is after a 6 month back he came back and proved he had lost none of his talent beating one of the best hurdlers in training. His injuries while they kept him off the track were minor and there’s very little chance they will come back to haunt him.
The fact Willie Mullins was going to run him the other day tells me he’s sound even if not 100% fit and hopefully he will stay that way.
The most likeable thing about Hurrcane Fly is he seems to be unperturbed by it all. They go slow or they go fast he seems to be able to travel well within himself and top it off with a power packed finish.
Binocular was chased home by Khyber Kim and Zaynar last year hell find these 2 a differnt proposition. One could be taking him on from the top of the hill and one could be stalking him like cat ready to pounce on a mouse.
I honestly think Peddlar’s Cross could outpoint Binocular if it comes to a fight but whether he can cope with Hurricane Fly’s devastaing turn of foot is very questionable. There is of course the chance they might burn him out but if he doesn’t find a 2nd gear it will be the first time in his life he hasn’t when fit.
I hope these 3 fight out the finish and my choice is Hurricane Fly for the reason’s stated but if Peddlar’s Cross goes there unbeaten and wins, because he would still be unbeaten he’ll be hailed as the new Persian War which would be great for racing.
Lovely stuff
Although Peddlers Cross has done nothing wrong, are people wanting to back him not slightly worried about the form in the fighting fifth being a little suspect? By this I’m really only referring to the proximity of Starluck. Nice horse that he is, the same thing happenned the year before I believe.
Binocular travelled as good as either of them until flattening out suggesting to me he badly needed the run. Okay, Peddlers Cross also needed the run apparently, so the the trainer would have it, however I just cant have that at all. That race was supposed to be all about finding out if PC was good enough to compete against the top 2milers. Surley they would of had him spot on with this in mind.
Menorah was very good the weekend but just how good is Cue Card? I get the impression nobody really knows. An impressive winner against Dunraven Storm but that might turn out to be very suspect. If Dunguib sticks to the 2 mile course this year instead of the 3 mile course he took last year and gets a top jockey to steer him, he could turn out to be much better value than Menorah.
Still has to be Binny in my eyes, I just hope he keeps losing until the festival, the bigger the price the more Guiness I can drink. Hurricane fly could maybe put a spanner in the works, but wouldnt want to be backing a horse who was supposed to take the last two champion hurdles by storm and didnt even show up.
Come on Binny!A horse that’s really caught my eye is Phillip Hobbs’ Quinz. Not sure if there’s a race for him this time round as he’s not a novice and he’s a bit young for a gold cup. Nevertheless, a star in the making.
sorry was looking at little josh
. Still, Denman should win this, with barbers shop not far away.Gotta be Denman, been there and done it.
Was looking at Wierd Al given the recent form boost, but I find it odd that not a lot of people are worried about the fact he’s only raced 3miles+ twice and been beaten by a combined total of 63 lengths!
Will also be looking to have an e/w saver on Barbers Shop. Did really well in this last year given the fact it was his first run. He arguably travelled better than anything until running out of steam late on. With the benefit of a pipe opener and 8 pounds better off, he could turn out to be a bit of value.Interesting to see a couple of new e/w contenders emerging after the weekend, was impressed with both Australia Day and Clerks Choice, in particular the latter.
The Triumph Hurdle has become quite a good pointer to this in the last few years with the likes of Katchit, Celestial Halo and Zaynar all doing well. The way Clerks Choice cruised by Barizan and Royal Mix(my tip for the Triumph last year) can only leave me thinking that by next march things could look quite different.
Just a quick look at the current odds would more-or-less tell you that last years supremes was twice as good as the triumph. Is this right, or is the supremes form still being overhyped by the presence of a certain Dunguib? I have my doubts.Still think Binny will win if in the same mood as last year, in fact i know. Hurricane Fly is very good but 5/1 to beat Binocular isnt very attractive to me. I dont think he could of done last year so see no reason why it should happen this year.
He has Gold Cup written all over him.
. Still, Denman should win this, with barbers shop not far away.