Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Chatterbox would have a chance if he goes this route. I think 20/1 is pretty attractive given how well he beat My Tent or Yours. Could well be Hendersons best chance imo. I see he’s entered in the 2m4f race at cheltenham on saturday tho so probably worth holding back for now
After looking at last year’s race a few times now, I think the one to take from it has to be Binocular. Some may think I’m mad, but he had already beaten Rock On Ruby in the Christmas hurdle, albeit only just. Then in the CH itself, I think we saw two of the worst rides we’ve seem from the two best jump jockeys of all time in Walsh and McCoy. Walsh thought he was on the best horse in the race and would win easily, yet let the winner slip too far out. And it was plainly obvious that McCoy’s thoughts were to shadow Hurricane Fly throughout and pounce late. They both got it terribly wrong on the day. Coming to the last they still had loads of ground to make up, and if Binocular hadn’t smashed through the last hurdle he may well have got a lot closer to the winner than the four lengths imply. If Binocular is ridden more positively or in similar fashion to when he won the race back in 2010, he must have a major chance of confirming the form with Rock on Ruby from the Christmas hurdle. With ROR a general 8/1 – 9/1 chance,and many think he can win again, the 25/1 I took on Binocular has to be the value call. (Now 20/1) Obviously with a couple of new faces on the block in Darlan and Grandouet you can’t be sure, but looking back on the runners from last year, I’m certain at the prices, he has to be the value. McCoy has stated he won’t choose between Darlan and Binocular until two days before the race, so he clearly feels the horse still has ability, and the trainer also thinks he still has a champion hurdle left in him. Looking forward to the race!
That quite nicely sums up my take on this race. Come on McCoy, choose Binny and roll back the years! 20’s far too big.
Cheers guys, he’s gonna be entered into the Denman Chase next month so I’m led to believe. Be interesting how he gets on. Still clueless as to working this years Gold Cup out but looks a brilliant contest in the the making. Was kinda hoping for better ground around the festive period, but seems previous festival form might be the best pointer again this year.
Be interested to here any info on the Tom George newcomer Mail de Bievre. Sounds like a very interesting recruit who holds an entry in both the Ryanair and Gold Cup. The French rate him about 175 which should make him a real player. 66/1 live outsider anyone?
The race fell apart a little bit with certain horses being withdrawn and wasn’t perhaps as competitive as it promised. Still, take nothing away from the winner, his jumping should see him winning more races, quite breathtaking the way he jumped the last under pressure. Give him a couple more runs this seaseon and hopefully next season with a bit of strengthening up over the summer the Hales team could have something special. A lot to like about that.
With Poquelin out at the 5 day stage, will turn my attentions to Unioniste. Cant believe I missed his low weight looking through first time. Also might have a little each way on Tartak, he’s bound to pop up again sooner or later and off his current rating could very well be sooner.
I’d be quite happy to ignore the trends and have an each way interest in Poquelin. Will have his ideal conditions and races off a feasable weight. 25/1 with Betred is just too big for the class horse in the race. Think he won this 2 years ago at a nice price if my memory serves me right.
Do you think Riverside Theatre will stay the trip Andrew? Must admit, I’d have serious doubts at this stage.
Good ground and he’d have a chance, as he’s bred like Kicking King.
However, there are a few other obstacles, one being that Geraghty will ride Bobs Worth. If Riverside performs well in the King George, then maybe AP might ride. Can’t see a JP horse being capable this year
I think it will be SDC and Bobs Worth up the hill.
It is indeed a long shot Riverside Theatre lining up in the Gold Cup but with Long Run maybe already having peaked and RT possibly still on the upgrade, it’s quite possible Nicky Henderson could be presented with a bit of a headache if the King George placings of 2 years ago are reversed. In the eventuality of that happenning, would Mr Nesbit not want a crack at the Gold Cup?
The Gold Cup does look one of the most difficult to work out at the moment and it’s very easy to look at early season form and get carried away with the likes of Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti (as good as they obviously are). Last year all the talk was about Kauto and Long Run, I didnt hear many talk up Synchronised before he won the Lexus (apologies for those who did).
The xmas period will tell us a hell of a lot this year as far as this race goes, more so than last year I believe.What price would you offer if you were a bookmaker Andrew?
Bobs Worth did achieve quite a bit more in the Hennessey than he did in the RSA. Beat First Lieutenent far easier on Saturday. If (as expected) continuing to improve at the same rate, he’d be right up with the best staying chasers come March. What’s more, course/Festival form needs to be taken in to account and no doubt the reason why bookmakers make him that short. ie Others may have "better form" as things stand, but not at Cheltenham. Hennessey may not have a great record as a Gold Cup trial, but winners don’t usually have such an impressive Festival record, 2 wins from 2 runs. Horses like Silviniaco Conti and Diamond Harry don’t have that CV, which is allowed for in their Gold Cup price.
Paddy Power probably have Gold Cup ante-post liabilities on the horse from bets struck prior to Saturday – keeping Bobs Worth shorter @ 7/2. Don’t think 5/1 is good enough value for me to bet either, I’d want 7/1. That’s no criticsm of the bookmaker’s 5/1 price. Because my idea of its true chance is around 6/1; so adding a mark up – if I were a bookmaker would need to offer 5/1.
Would probably go 8/1 Bobs Worth which I think is what he was before the race. Going back to the RSA , do you not think had it been over 3m2f, he would have won by farther. I think it’s pretty safe to assume had they gone an extra 2 furlongs, the winning distance would have been greater. As for course form, it is impressive but is it anymore impressive than his Newbury form? I would be inclined to say any left handed course would suit him myself and while course form is important, it’s by no means essential.
As a punter , I would be very wary of taking anything less than 10’s for any horse to win the Gold Cup at the moment, it’s looking like one of the most exciting and open renewals for many years.
The Giant Bolster for example is 25/1 in places which seems astonishing when you consider he might well have won it last year bar a mistake at the last. Would much rather take that than the woefully short odds available on the current favourite.Probably am being a bit negative, for the record I didnt think there was anything wrong with Bobs Worths performance, you can only beat whats put in front of you. To do it in the manner he did does merit respect. As the betting for the Gold Cup is concerned, taking the current price would be pointless imo. We don’t yet know enough about the other novices and how they’ve progressed from last year to gauge it properly, the christmas period should tell us more.
Btw the one horse I think is the most interesting looking back at the race is Teaforthree. Has national stamped all over him.I was rather of the opinion the Hennessey wasn’t much of a pointer in terms of Gold Cup credentials, Denman being the exception in recent years. He was a truley exceptional racehorse tho. What I have noticed about the Hennessey is that the winner is generally talked up into being the new kid on the block so to speak (Diamond Harry, Trabolgan etc)…
And while you say that no way could the bookies push Bobs Worth out (and rightly so), I dont see any reason to push him in either other than he’s shown that he’s still the same horse he was in march. Why wasn’t he 7/2 after winning the RSA, what did he prove saturday he didn’t prove then??? Ok he took on older horses for the first time but apart from Tidal Bay who gave him best part of half a stone and only got beat 3 lengths, they were all handicappers.
Anyway, I rambled on enough about this, we’ll know more about what’s what after the King George, which to my mind is a far greater pointer as to what might happen in march.Okay, 10/1 the field might be exaggerating a bit but 7/2 Bobs Worth with Paddy Power, generally 4’s now? Come off it.
There are many horses this year that at this stage would seem to have more than a chance. Al Ferof, Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti, The Giant Bolster, Long Run, Bobs Worth are the obvious ones. Then you have Flemenstar, Sir des Champs, Grands Crus(providing wind op sorts his problems out), Last Instalment, Weapons Amnesty….
Okay there’s an argument that some of those mentioned wont stay, but making Bobs worth a short favourite this far out when it would seem there is so much talent around this year seems a bit daft. To me the best performance so far this year would be Silviniaco Conti beating Long Run in the Betfair and yet he’s twice the price. Anyway, this is the Hennessey thread so apologies.Happy with that, couldnt see anything beating him and they didnt.
Being realistic however, all Bobs Worth has proven today is that he’s marginally better than Tidal bay, recieving 6lbs and all that. 5/1 for the Gold Cup looks quite skinny to me on the back of this race, although a big well done to those who took 20/1 for the Hennessey, Gold cup double.Being realistic all he has shown is that he can win what is acknowledged as one of the most competitive handicaps of the season under a big weight in what for him was pretty smooth style. There was little doubt (barring accidents) he was going to win from some way out because he is such a strong stayer. Despite his age an on-song Tidal Bay is a more than useful yardstick. You can pick holes in most single figure quotes as said horse has got to turn up but at the moment he has far less to prove than all his expected competitors.
Wasn’t really picking holes in Bobs Worth in particular, but more how the bookmakers make him a 5/1 favourite for the Gold Cup, should be 10/1 the field or thereabouts. Tidal Bay ran a cracking race, probably his best ever considering giving weight all round (makes you wonder what might have been if Paul Nicholls had got his hands on him sooner). Looking at the race before hand I thought apart from Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant, there wasn’t a lot worth backing and so it proved. To me, as good as Bobs Worth was on saturday, all he’s really proved is what he proved in march, so why should his price for the Gold cup almost halve? Like I said, I’m not trying to de-value one of the best handicaps of the season, just don’t understand the reaction of the bookmakers sometimes.
Happy with that, couldnt see anything beating him and they didnt.
Being realistic however, all Bobs Worth has proven today is that he’s marginally better than Tidal bay, recieving 6lbs and all that. 5/1 for the Gold Cup looks quite skinny to me on the back of this race, although a big well done to those who took 20/1 for the Hennessey, Gold cup double.All over Bobs Worth for this, a very worthy favourite and a very decent price imo. Has the pace to beat Cue Card around the course, has the stamina to win going away in the RSA… This will be the start of a big season for him.
Good news, what a superstar he’s been.
The winner of the King George will now have the shine taken off him by everyone saying "he only won ’cause King Kauto retired". And damn right, the very least our french friend deserves!
Thank you Kauto, you’re a Star.
I do have reservations about Riverside Theatre staying the trip, but only on the basis he’s never tried it. Okay he ran in the King George last year but he got outpaced in that about 5 out before staying on at the business end. He was being pushed along from quite a way out in the the Ryanair and needed every single yard of that trip to get his nose infront. I think going that half a stride slower might help his cause. Also he improves steadily from year to year so why not this year?
Would be backing Medermit for the Gold Cup but until his problems are sorted out, probably not worth it.
On the whole, I think the form of the Ryanair last year will turn out to be the best pointer to this years Gold cup, was the most competitve race in terms of ability imo.
Taking 65’s about Riverside Theatre on betfair isnt that much of a gamble to my mind ’cause he’ll more than likely line up in the King George and run well enough for his price to contract considerably (fingers crossed).
