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Far be it from me to encourage anyone to bet Ante post….I like to be sure of a run for my money…but the odds are just out for The King George and considering there is no more than a fag paper between Harbinger and
PROFOUND BEAUTY
on a line through Age Of Aquarius, the respective odds of 3-1 and 16-1 are, quite frankly, ludicrous. Having just re-run both races I’d say the mare beat AOA easier than Harbinger did and Dermot Weld’s horses peak much later in life than most other trainers. She’ll improve a lot for that run.
£16 EW EMERGING ARTIST @ 11/4 Best Odds
That’ll do nicely, my only bet of the day and my nap in the Forum Tipping Competition too.
This one will improve again and unless stepped up too much in class next time out, he’s one to follow
Another £55 in the kitty takes the flat season profit to £608.97 after the first three weeks
If ever a horse stood head and shoulders above the opposition on all known form, it’s Dessie Hughes’s
GRANGECLARE GOLD
in the first at Ballinrobe this evening.
The form of her Grade 3 second at Down Royal on November 2nd, alone gives her the form advantage of a long odds on shot yet RP are forecasting 7/2 !!!!!
No firms quoting the race yet but don’t get knocked over in the rush, this mare looks a seriously good betIf ever a horse stood head and shoulders above the opposition on all known form, it’s Dessie Hughes’s
GRANGECLARE GOLD
in the first at Ballinrobe this evening.
The form of her Grade 3 second at Down Royal on November 2nd, alone gives her the form advantage of a long odds on shotBet placed £100 Win @ 9/4 best odds
Money for old rope, I still can’t work out why she was odds against, £250 profit
Flat Season profit now stands at £858.97
Not a day to splash out much cash, in fact I’ve struggled to find a nap for the RF competition, I considered three, first a long shot,
BIVOUAC
in the 3.35 at Carlisle, a decent bumper winner and Alan Swinback does well with this type and worth a small EW. There wasn’t enough pace in his last run which is best ignored.
Despite the tempting odds (25-1) it eventually came down to a toss up between another two, probably as Swinback has three in the race and jockey bookings suggest he may no be the stable’s first choice.JEMBATT
in the 9.00 at Naas who should be too good for the Ballydoyle odds on favourite and, with only three runners, if it’s a tactic race I’d have side with Fran Berry ahead of young Joseph O’Brien.
It was a toss up but in my ultimate quest for winners I’ve gone for
ULTIMATE QUEST
in the 6.20 at Kempton, purely on the likely hood of a getting better price than Jembatt. Mark Prescott and Seb Sauders are masters with improvers under a penalty in this type of poor handicap and, although he’s five, he has few miles on the clock and is the type to run up a sequence before the handicapper gets his measure.
I’d advise a start off with no more than a small ew trixie or patent and rethink the day depending on the first result, I can’t get an ew on line with all up to win on Jembatt and the 25-1 guaranteed about Bivouac is too tempting to miss so I’m going for £3 ew and a £2 ew double with Ultimate Quest and decide what to have on Jembatt later
BIVOUAC doesn’t run, I’ll have the money coming back on a double (£6 win)
JEMBATT in the 9.00 at Naas and ULTIMATE QUEST 6.20 KemptonI hadn’t realised how much a good draw meant on dirt, that might just have been my first ever bet on this surface…. and probably my last!…or not? £1.44 ew QUINSMAN @ 20s 8.50 Kemp
£12 Win @ 13/8 on JEMBATT in the 9.00 at NaasAnother QR race in Ireland tonight where one horse is virtually gifted the race on the strength of it’s vastly superior National Hunt form.
Although tonight’s race is a "handicap", the improvement shown bySCHELM
is since he last ran on the flat puts him in here with a stone or more in hand, he’ll love the quick ground and has Nina Carberry on board.
Normally I’d say Nina is a huge plus but Schelm’s form is so superior to the rest of the field this should just be a steering job the booking of the best of the Carberrys means the odds will be far skinnier than if any other jockey was on board. What more can one ask for? (apart from a decent price)
I’ve noticed recently that anthing she rides seems to start 33% or more shorter a price that it’s form merits, such is her reputation in this sort of race, just look at the prices/form of her last couple of rides for instance to confirm my theory.I’ll decide on the stake one there’s an opening show
Current Flat Season Profit £838.97
Yesterday’s small loss of £20 underlines that fact that it’s just as important to know when NOT to bet as it is to know when to bet.
I’ll be more disciplined in future on a day when I’m struggling to find a nap.Very dissapointed by the ride Nina Carberry gave Schelm, she’s usually 100% reliable but last night she left Schelm with far too much to do but, even so, it wasn’t a good performance by the horse either.
Season profit drops to £734.97
My original choice for today’s nap in the bet365 TRF Tipping Championship was going to be 25-1 shot
NAN’S BEST
in The Apprentice Derby at The Curragh tonight but with Schelm letting the form line down I’ve reconsidered. I’ve been quite impressed by young Joeseph O’Brien and the front running Nan’s Best is well drawn and I’ll still have a little EW but, on reflection, I feel Dermot Weld will have a field day tonight (if can one have a field
day
at night?). He has the favourite in this race, and treble looks on the cards.
EASY MATE
in the "Derby" was always going to be the danger to Nan’s Best,
MOONLIT GARDEN (NAP)
looks rock solid on Royal Ascot running and I expect
BE MY STORM
to turn over the Ballydoyle favourite in the last.
Stakes later
NAN’S BEST / EASY MATE, MOONLIT GARDEN (NAP), and BE MY STORM
Two sets of 3 x £1 ew doubles and £2 EW treble £20 staked.Tomorrow sees my nap of the month turn out in the Curragh Cup,
PROFOUND BEAUTY
, who I epect to go on and land The King George for which race there is still 16-1 available. She’ll need to win impressively tomorrow though but if she does, expect these odds to tumble.
Five races, one winner, two beaten in photos and a third so how did I manage to lose money last night?
Seasons Profit droped to £693.27Biggest flat bet so far today £193.27 Win
PROFOUND BEAUTY
in The Curragh Cup
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