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Still no sign of a 3-Y-O beating older horses in Listed or Group race beyond a mile this season, two more hotpots beaten at Windsor last night and Bullet Train routed, this is a shocking statistic that shows how poor this year’s crop is in comparison to recent years.
Since I spotted this trend it’s helped my avoid some very expensive losers and pinpointed more a one decent priced winner so, to my way of thinking, that rules out the bottom half the field in the Group 3 at The Curragh. Of the older horses the choice seems to lie between Lush Lashes ( a mare I’ve always liked) and the lightly raced ENCHANTED EVENING but with Bolger’s mare a very short price for one coming back after a long lay off, the sensible bet is EW on Enchanted Evening. I’ve had a decent Trixie (See Sumer Jumpers thread) with two at Galway, unless my first selection wins I’ll be having a single later.
The two jumpers are GENTLEMAN JEFF (2.30 Galway) and the banker of the week, COLONEL MORTIMER (5.35)Unaccompanied was most impressive last time out, I’ll wait to see the betting for The Irish Cambridgeshire before deciding whether to have a bet or not, Ladbrokes are showing a miserly 7-1 with 12-1 available with firms I don’t have an account with
£13.55 lost yesterday
Flat Season Profit down to £568.39I know I shouldn’t be backing 2-Y-Olds but both MEMORY and GLOR NA MAR look fairly safe bets and as I’ve got an odd £14.58 in my account I’ll have it on a win treble, those two with COLONEL MORTIMER
Check this form line…………….
Beethoven has twice finished approx 4 ½ lengths behind Canford Cliffs
Steinbeck has finished ½ a length behind Beethoven and has twice been behind Canford Cliffs beaten 5 length and 6 lengths respectively, all these races were run at level weights which suggest the form is reliable, and that Beethoven is a length or so superior to Steinbeck.
Lets say for arguments sake that Canford Cliffs and Rip Van Winkle are virtually each others equal at weight for age on their previous meeting, I’d favour RVW if they met again but it must be close, so they are both approx 6 lengths better then Steinbeck at weight for age
Now I’d advise any doubters to watch the way Famous Name gives a stone (double the weight for age allowance) and a 2 ½ length beating to Steinbeck, it could have been 6 or 8 lengths if Pat Smullen had got the least bit serious, as he won virtually on the bridle.
These form lines favour Famous Name slightly but even factoring in a few pounds improvement for Rip Van Winkle there can’t be much more than a fag paper between them yet RVW is odds on, FAMOUS NAME is 25-1 and is a five times course winner…………am I missing something here?Dermot Weld could win all three group races at Leopardstown today, the first runner CASHELGAR has been off the track for over a year since coming over from France and it may be too big an ask to win first time out but worth a punt.
BETHRAH has beaten most of the opposition and I can see no reason for any of these to reverse Guineas form with her.
FAMOUS NAME is my nap of the day although if the ground is too lively I’d expect to see him withdrawn
I’ll start with a very modest £1 ew TRIXIE and a £1 ew Treble and see what happens in the Kilternan StakesEdit 13.25, bottom has fallen out of the price o Famous Name, got 20s in my trixie and though he was 14s with Hills & Ladbrokes I got a bit of 20-1 in town, small betting shop would more than a tenner ew at that price though
Raining at Leopardstown, ground is softening, doubled the stakes on my Trixie & Treble
Another bad day sees my Flat Profit drop to £423.71
I’ve had two previous bad runs in the last year and recovered fully plus some so I’m keeping the faith
£20 EW D
MAD JACK DUNCAN & ENDLESS EXPANSEDoubled my bet when they were in the stalls…ok aftertiming I hear you say…but I think folks on here know me better than that? Look back, I’ve been following the horse and he owed me.
£160 profit on day, shame about the double, Mad Jack does the business again.
Profit on flat season creeping back up, now £583.71
Understandable but the race was about to go off, I wanted to watch it as I’d been following but almost given up on the horse. (4 lenghts 2nd to Loosen My Load was the form I liked)
If I’d been trying to falsify my winnings I’d have claimed to have taken some of the 38-1 on betfair, which is where I should have placed my second bet but I was in too much of a rush to get on.
First post was an hour before the race and I’ve never posted a bet after a race before
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I’ve got no reason to doubt your word, CS, but there’s little benefit in massaging your figures with bets you placed subsequently.
For the purposes of the thread, which to date has been run immaculately, only the ‘advised’ £5 each-way should be counted.
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