SELECTIONS FOR THE FLAT SEASON

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

£12.50 @ 7-1 Best Odds ROSES FOR THE LADY in the Park Hill Stakes.
An optomistic rather than confident selection, I love this race and on her best form she’d win this renewal easily but she’s not the most consistent of fillies and her last run was very dissapointing although the form of the race has worked out well.
Her previous run, 3 length behind Profound Beauty, looks far better on paper that it actually was as Dermot Weld’s mare was in season that day, but a reprouction of her 3 length second to Sariska would make her stone wall certainty in this field.

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

I’ve had to sign up with bet365 to get my free bets from the bet365 World Championship Tipster Competition.
I deposited £100 to start the account and got a free £100 Bet for joining. If I’d understood their free bet policy properly before signing up I would have deposited £200 but "c’est la vie" as Del Boy would say
Just put the whole £200 to win on PROFOUND BEAUTY @ 2-1 in Saturday’s Irish Leger, NRNB Best Odds etc. Effectively I’ve got 4-1 to £100 risked but I’ll probably be back for more on Saturday, I’ll trust Mr Weld not to run the mare if the ground softens up too much, he’s not known to be shy about a withdrawing a fancied runner if he feels it’s best for his horse.
I the going stays as it is, she’s my banker of the flat season so far

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

£2.50 EWSIR REGINAL, 2n in Gimcrack should be good enough to get him in the frame

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

Flat Season Profit dropped to £553.71

75p EW YANKEE & 75p EW ACC placed

Starts with ZEBEDEE in The Flying Childers, although I’ve mostly avoided 2-Y-Olds this one looks a bit of a machine. First bet in this race since Music Boy got turned over by a 50-1 shot decades ago…OK, aftertiming but I was on the odds on Music Boy, not the winner
Next up, BAHRAIN STORM in Her Majesty’s Plate at Down Royal, trip is a slight concern but it’s hard to see Myrine or Zaralabad beating him based on the weights/result of their latest meeting.
Next two run tomorrow, and are stronger fancies that today’s selections.
I’ve been sweet on the chances of JOSHUA TREE landing The St Leger since he ran behind Redwilding at York while, over at The Curragh, only more rain stands between PROFOUND BEAUTY and her long overdue first Group 1 win in The Irish Leger.

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

£2.50 EW POINTILLISTE, 3/4 length second to Kasbah Bliss almost exacvtly a year ago, that would be enough to win this, 28-1 seems over generous

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

£15 EW JOSHUA TREE @ 4-1 without the favourite 1-2-3 places (or in truth probably 1-2-3-4 as it’s hard to see Rewilding out of the frame) looks a free bet to me plus
£10 EW JOSHUA TREE @ 9-1 (best odds etc) also got some running up money from Zebedee in yesterday’s yankee.
Once again I caught Bahrain Storm on the wrong day, Pat Smullen stole the race from the front, quickening and slowing the pace, unsettling the pack and causing bunching and bumping in behind, Bahrain Storm was one of the worst sufferers, got a couple of bumps and needed a faster pace to bring his stamina into play.

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

£11 EW NATURAL HIGH
£7 EW FANTASY KING
50p Rev F/C

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

That’s my summer betting campaign over. Peaked at a £1650 profit (combined Summer NH and Flat) but dropped away badly ending up a total of £626.75 in front on basically a £1 a point. Max bet 200 points/£200.
All but one of my £100 plus bets lost so I suppose overall that’s an OK profit but it’s too much effort on races I’m not really that interested in. I doubt if I’ll bother next season.
Considering I won more than my total overall three months profit on one race, The Ascot Gold Cup, a race I always bet in anyway, the time spent was counter productive although winning the TRF bet365 World Championship Tipster Competition more than compensated. Once that was over my concentration and profits nosedived!
I’ll be starting my serious NH betting with a new thread, probably fairly soon….maybe as early as Wednesday this week at Listowel.
I’ll start by using the summer profit carried forward plus I’ve got £175 in free bets from the tipping competition so with a few pennies over £800 to kick off with….. it’s back to the day job!

[Pompete]

Chelts, well done on a nice summers punting, great stuff.

Can I ask your advice on Hunter Chasers?

Are the place terms in Hunter Chases the same as for non-handicap or do 16+ runners pay 4 places?

Thanks

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

All Hunter Chases are 1-2-3 , no fourth place paid

I try to avoid big fields (over 12) except at the very highest level. 8-12 runner races are the perfect betting medium, any more and there’s a fair chance of collaterall damage. There’s a wide level of ability at this level, both horses and riders, too many runners can often bring about a strange result.

[Pompete]

Thanks CS

I thought that was the case but not only have I never bet in a Hunter Chase but prior to starting a bit of research last month have never even looked at one on the racecard!

From the information I’ve collected so far (all races from 1st Jan 2010) I can see what mean about field size and had already begun forming a view similar to your own.

It might not lead to anything but if it does lookout for a thread in the Systems Section next year

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

Pompete

For many years now I’ve found Hunter Chases the easiest form of making money from horse racing. Once you get into the form, trainer and jockey quality etc I’m sure you’ll agree
It would be well worth investing in the MacKenzie & Harris Point To Point Hunter form book if you plan to go about these races seriously. Due out Oct/Nov

If you check my new "NH Notebook 2010-2011" thread in Trends, Research & Notebooks you’ll find quite a few Hunters for you to check up on.

[JJMSports]

Was a nice read sir, and clearly know your stuff! Most memorable win of the season?

Congrats on the profit!

[Author]

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