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Todays selections:
3.20 McConnell 5/2 2pts WIN
Interesting Bel Cantor is in this race, back over a more suitable trip, however wasn’t dropped any weight for his last run at Southwell which put me off selecting him.
Much more interested in McConnell, has been running in much beter class races than this, and he won and placed this time of year just a year ago off a mark of 83 and 82, today running off a mark of 68. This is the right trip for him too. Last run wasn’t all that bad behind the polytrack regular Tevez who is a decent yardstick. Hopefully the first time blinkers do the trick.
3.30 Ramora 50/1 1pt EW
May have just needed that run at Wolves last time, after a month since last run. Clearly used to have an inch of class coming from the Cecil yard. The horse has placed over a furlong longer just over a year ago at the same venue, and is now running a whole 24 lbs lower (including claimer). Surely doesn’t even need to run to that mark again to win this, and seems overpriced.
Massive 5/2 winner and 50/1 winner , massive 178.5 double.
Selections 97
Points invested: 217
Winners 14
Seconds 10
S/R winners: 14.43%
S/R in top 2: 28.86%Pro/Loss +155.35 pts
Todays selection:
2.30 Hereford Musical Wedge 25/1 2pts EW
Won at Hereford over 2 furlongs further just one race ago off a mark of 90. Was raised to a mark of 99, but then ran at Aintree in a class 3 over 3miles (probably due to the fact he pulled hard in the early stages of the Hereford race). The extra distance clearly didn’t suit and it was his first spin after 6 months and is back running over 2m 4f in a lower class 4. However Musical Wedge travelled like one of the best horses in the Aintree race until about 4 furlongs out. I think this horse has good tactical speed to stay up towards the front, and is likely to travel extremely well to just a few out, when hopefully the stamina will kick in. The ground is the unknown factor, but Musical Wedge certainly dealt with it fine at Aintree before the extra distance found him out. The mark of 99 is definately workable and this horse should be involved in the shake-up, looks over-priced.Total Invested: 4 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsJugofPunch66
Todays selections:
4.45 Wolves Namu 28/1 1pt EW
6.45 Wolves Kheley 12/1 1pt EW
7.45 Wolves Acropolis 14/1 1pt EW
1pt EW Double
Total Invested: 8pts
Total Returns: 0ptsTodays selections:
3.40 Know No Fear 6/1 2pts WIN
3.10 Mr Funshine 11/1 1pt EW
2.40 General Tufto 7/1 1pt EW
1.40 Master Leon 8/1 2pts WIN
1.40 Electioneer 16/1 1pt EW
Total Invested: 10pts
Total Returns: 0ptsTerrible day…onwards and upwards. More jumps selections will be filtering through as I reluctantly wave goodbye to the flat season.
Todays selection:
5.40 Edinburgh Knight 2pts WIN 3/1
Last chance saloon for Edinburgh Knight. Selected a few times on this thread but has always found one too good. Now dropped in the weights and has another realistic chance for everything to drop right.Total Invested: 2 pts
Todays selections:
5.50 Wolves Bentley 8/1 1pt EW
3.20 Tyrannosaurous Rex 28/1 2pts EW
4.50 Joyously 33/1 1pt EW
Total Invested: 8pts
Total Returns: 4ptsTomorrows Selections:
12.00 Southwell Memphis Man 1pt EW
Dropped to a mark of 54, with a 7lb claimer on board in the form of Matthew Cosham, who is value for his claim. Technically racing off a mark of 47, despite being only weighted 4lbs off top weight in the race of 58. Clearly a decent performer on the grass as his runs would suggest from the summer. I think his race at Chester in the summer in a class 4 over the same distance today read well, especially as Memphis Man was running off a mark of 71 that day, with the same pilot on board, only beaten 2 and a half lenghths. Clearly that was a long time ago now, but in a field full of inconsistent performers with a few running at inadequate distances, I think Memphis Man has sound place claims at least. I think biggest danger could be Boy the Bell who is running well at present.2.00 Southwell Jack Dawkins 2pts EW
The first selection of my thread not so long ago! When looking at the horses profile in the context of this race, the first thought that came to my head was ‘Why is Dandy Nicholls still training this horse?’. However the more I studyed the horse the more I liked its chance (again!). I selected Jack Dawkins back in August when he was running off a mark of 80, a whole 15lbs higher than his current mark. Watching Jack Dawkins penultimate run at Pontefract over a furlong shorter, he was travelling as well as anyone when the pace quickened around the bend, and then had every chance up to the line (the winner had the rail which seemed to help). Jack Dawkins was still one of the best travelling horses at the line, running on strongly, and I get the feeling the horse needs a slightly more positive ride up in the front group to get his head in front. He went down another 2lbs after another run which I feel can be ignored for the heavy ground, and the only question mark I still have lingering in my mind is whether Jack Dawkins can run as well at Southwell as he can on the grass. A previous spin at Great Leighs would suggest he will be fine on this surface. The inside draw should be fine to get a perfect position. Dandy Nicholls’ horses are running well at present, 9 of 18 at least placing in the last 14 days.1pt EW Double N/A
Hi JoP,
I like your write ups – not too long. some people can get carried away and give a full service history of the horse . Best to keep it sweet.
But aside from that, is the price not important to your bet? Maybe you’ve mentioned it earlier in the thread but I’m already half way through this reply so I can’t check now.
Anyway, best of luck and I look forward to reading more of your opinions.
Nulty
Hi Nulty,
Firstly thanks for the positive comments. Much appreciated.
I must say price is actually one of the most important factors when I select horses, you don’t often find me backing horses under EW prices. When I do they tend to come second!! Unfortunately I’m very busy at the moment, so when I do get the chance to write up its usually the evening before…meaning there’s not usually any prices. I have a quick check on the magic machine first but this doesn’t neccessarily reflect the bookies prices the next day in my previous experience. Therefore when I make selections I try to get a price, however there are occassions when I have to leave it as where I work doesn’t allow me on forums! What I will start doing is if there is no price available, I will say over what price I think still represents value. For example, with Memphis Man today, I thought anything above 10/1 represented value for a decent EW shout. Unfortunately he came 4th at 22/1!
Thanks,
JugofPunch66
Thats the best way to do it I reckon Jug. Stating a minimum price that you would back the selection at when you don’t have a price is a useful way of determining whether the bet is a goer.
I assume then that you either don’t back your selections when there is no price or you find a b&m shop during the day while you cannot post here. Either way it gives the readeer an idea of whether to qualify your selection in betting terms.
All the best
Todays selection(s):
3.05 Cheltenham Silvianaco Conti 3/1 2pts WIN
Up against the impressive Cue Card and Menorah, this horse will need to be on song. However apparently the horse has schooled well and improved alot, will be fine over the shorter distance and has perfect underfoot conditions. Has the form in the book, and the only question mark I have is whether he will take to Cheltenham, as he won last time around Ascot. I think he is over priced at 3/1, anything over 5/2 looks value to be in the battle come the line (hopefully with the mightly impressive Cue Card!).1pt RFC Cue Card
1.55 Cheltenham Kalahari King 8/1 1pt EW
I’m a huge fan of this horse, but I’m certainly not picking him just through my heart, I’d like to think I’m using my head too! The race clearly pivots around favourite MasterMinded. His comeback race was certainly all he needed to do and will clearly improve for the race. However 10/11 about a horse who sometimes throws in the odd poor jump, especially at a track where his last two runs have resulted in defeat (4th and 3rd). Therefore I’d rather play EW, and I think anything above 7/1 is worth a play. Kalahari King was just in front of Masterminded in the Queen Mother Chase at Cheltenham last season, which proves this horse can go hoof to hoof with this horse over this distance. The underground conditions will also be perfect. There are a few potential improvers in the field, including Somersby, who is apparently a potential Gold Cup horse for the future. A great race to savour, but I’ll be hoping Kalahari King runs up to his potential.Total invested: 6pts
Total returned: 0pts
JugofPunch66Afternoon one and all,
Todays selections:
2.40 Nightjar 3 points win 11/4
2pt RFC w/ Seek the Faid Land
2.05 Everymanforhimself 2pts EW 7/1
3.15 Bel Cantor 2pts WIN 4/1
Replays:
2.40 http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 18_05_1440
2.05 http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 18_04_1405
3.15 http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 18_06_1515Total Invested: 11pts
Total Returns: 32.75pts
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