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Merry belated christmas one and all!
I hope Santa brought you everything you wanted.
It’s nice to see a little bit of racing again today. I think it is important not to get too heavily involved for a couple of weeks still as the form book will certainly be very shaky at the moment, and the amount of work horses have been doing at home will depend on so many factors, the most obvious being the snow and ice, so there will certainly be a fair bit of watching in the coming weeks.
However, that being said, one of the horses I quite fancied not too long ago rides again at Southwell today!
Todays selection:
1.50 Southwell Jack Dawkins 12/1 2pts EW
I selected J.D. not too long ago before the meeting got cancelled. Below is the write up:I selected Jack Dawkins back in August when he was running off a mark of 80, a whole 15lbs higher than his current mark. Watching Jack Dawkins penultimate run at Pontefract over a furlong shorter, he was travelling as well as anyone when the pace quickened around the bend, and then had every chance up to the line (the winner had the rail which seemed to help). Jack Dawkins was still one of the best travelling horses at the line, running on strongly, and I get the feeling the horse needs a slightly more positive ride up in the front group to get his head in front. He went down another 2lbs after another run which I feel can be ignored for the heavy ground, and the only question mark I still have lingering in my mind is whether Jack Dawkins can run as well at Southwell as he can on the grass. A previous spin at Great Leighs would suggest he will be fine on this surface.
Dandy Nicholls current stable form for the past 14 days is a total of 24 runners, 5 winners, 6 seconds and 3 thrids, a strike rate of 20.83%. 14 placed horses in 24 runners.
I think this horse is going to be winning very soon – I believe Dandy wouldn’t have kept hold of this horse if he didnt feel it retained some its ability of winning higher grade races of a mark of 90 in May 2009. I feel anything above 7/1 is over priced for a stable bang in form (on last seen evidence!) and very nicely handicapped horse.
Replay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 27_04_1350
Total invested: 4pts
Total Returns: 6.8ptsDecent run from J.D, certainly no chance with dontpaytheferryman! One to follow in a similar event. Good run again from Ramora in 2nd aswell, tipped up at 50/1 not long ago.
I was also impressed with Bentley who won again today at 8/1!
Good luck one and all,
JugofPunch667.50 Kempton Best Trip 2PTS EW 14/1
Sole win came at Kempton over 6f in a weak looking maiden.Then ran over minimum trip as favourite in a class 4 at Kempton and finished a respectable two and a half lengths behind Breathless Kiss, who has recently just won at Kempton over 5f on a mark of 78, which would put best trip as having a good shout on form alone.
Then ran in another 5f dash at Southwell and only came seventh, just over ten lengths behind eventual winner Love Delta, who has jut recently won again at Southwell off a mark of 92.
Since those three runs, has run over an inadequate 7f trips, once at Leicester on the turf, and then two spins at Kempton off marks of 74 and 70. In the most recent race off a mark of 70, Best Trip led until 2f out, and was probably doing his best at the 6f pole, before getting a slight nock and then was allowed to shuffle backwards.
Now dropped to a mark of 67 over a more adequate distance, I think Best Trip has a good chance of at least hitting the frame. The 7 draw should be no problem, allowing best rip to get a prominent position early. The stable form isn’t brilliant but it will be interesting to see how Barnet Fair runs in the 5.20 earlier in the card with a decent chance, and a win would surely bolster best trips credentials.
The form figures certainly don’t do this horse justice and its easy to forget the horse is just 3 years old so is open to plenty of scope and improvement. I think anything above 8/1 is decent value. I am certainly wary of recent winner Pincansort, who won very easily last run and a 5lb hike in the weights may not be enough to stop the winning.
Replay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 39,00.html
Total Invested: 4 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsVery unlucky not to place, had every chance to win with about 150 yards to go. Two well handicapped sorts in the first 3 ahead of him. One to follow in a similar event.
Todays selection:
Lingfield 2.45
Miami Gator
10/1 2pts EW
Has a really good chance here to at least hit the frame, only found a progressive handicapper Final Drive too good last time at Wolves. Acts around Lingfield (won its last visit here, albeit over a year ago), will be prominent throughout the race and won’t be easy to catch. Tevez is a clear danger, a very reliable yardstick on the polytrack.
Replay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 30_05_1445
Total Invested: 4pts
Total Returns: 7pts3.00 Lingfield Mythical Blue 1pt EW 40/1
Replay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 31_07_1500Total Invested: 0 pts
Total Returns: 0ptsLatest figures:
Selections 121
Points invested: 287
Winners 16
Seconds 13
S/R winners: 13.22%
S/R in top 2: 23.96%Pro/Loss +135.9 pts
Todays selection:
Lingfield 15.50 The Happy Hammer 14/1 3pts EW
I think this horse is massively overpriced compared to the other markt leaders.The selection came second to Three Ducks by just a neck over a mile, Three Ducks racing off a mark of 75. Kiss of Prince who was in third that day by another neck was racing off 72, but has since won twice of 72 and 76, currently rated 80. Fourth in the race has also placed off a mark of 72. This would suggest that The race form stands up, and Happy Hammer ran up to a mark of around 75 – 70 that day. It was over a furlong further than todays race but The Happy Hammers next race proved he was just as good over 7f. The Happy Hammer actually won at Wolves off a mark off 61 over todays trip, and then got beat by just two and a half lengths off a pound higher mark than todays, one of which Chilli Green has gone on to win off 69 and place off 75.
Last time out, The Happy Hammer was beaten by only four horses, two of which race in todays race, Lishane Bog and Lochantanks, who have to now give more weight away to The Happy Hammer.
All in all, I think The Happy Hammer has proven form over trip, course and is primed to run a big race, and anything over 6/1 is value.
Total Invested: 6 pts
Total Returns: 58.5 ptsReplay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 08_03_1250
JugofPunch66Latest figures:
Selections 122
Points invested: 293
Winners 17
Seconds 13
S/R winners: 13.93%
S/R in top 2: 24.95%Pro/Loss +188.4 pts
Todays selection:
3.05 Wolves Spinning Ridge 2pts EW 6/1 (Take best odds as it may drift)
Has fallen down the weights from a mark of 72 last July. Has been running races on grass in the summer which has resulted in the falling mark.Its run at Wolves in December off a mark of 69 over 7f can be ignored as it was the first spin out for 6 months.
Then ran with credit at Lingfield over 8f on a mark of 67, with every chance two out, before the extra distance showed and was caught in the final furlong.
Spinning Ridge then raced over 7f on a mark of 64, blundering out of the gates, and as he likes to race prominently burned up the first straight to lead, using vital energy and consequently weakening in the final furlong, only beaten a credible 4 lengths behind Buxton. That was from a wide draw of nine as well, which tends to favour horses that come late.
Today Spinning Ridge runs off a 2lb lower mark off 62 with a middle draw of 5, and if breaking out well can make all from the front, as he likes to take a few lengths out on the field on the home bend and try and stretch them out. Has form over C&D, winning off a 4lb higher mark of 66 in a higher class 5 at Wolves, applying similar tactics.
Ron Harris has 30% strike rate of hitting the frame in the last 14 days which shows the stable is in form. The money for spinning ridge previous race is another positive that he is ready to strike.
Of the other runners, Rubenstar is a clear threat, especially as the race will be run to suit of a strong pace. The way Rubenstar quickened last time out over 7f at Lingfield highlights the danger. Saddlers Bend is another danger, beaten only by Faithful Ruler who was running off a much higher mark. Little Luxury is potentially thrown in, but the stable form is poor and is an unknown.
However at the prices, Spinning Ridge makes a lot of EW appeal to hit the first 3, and prices above 5/1 is possible value.
Spinning Ridge fluffed the start again, had to ridden to get to the front again, using vital energy. A winner in waiting.
Replay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 10_03_1505
Total Invested: 0 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsJugofPunch66
Todays selection:
4.30 Kempton Holyfield Warrier 12/1 2pts EW
Returning from a 168 day break, this horse has run only once at Kempton off a mark of 45 in 2007, beaten only 2 and a half lengths at odds of 40/1. Whilst that is ‘old news’, it highlights he handles the track. Another interesting fact is that after a three month break back in November 2009, Holyfield Warrier won at Lingfield off a mark of 54 over 8f, opening at 50/1, being sent off at 25/1, under the same trainer.All the previous runs since then, Holyfield Warrier was stepped up in trip, probably through a lack of pace perhaps, but hasn’t found much over 9f, with the odd good run. Running fresh over 8f might be the time to catch him.
Another interesting pointer is that the trainer RJ Smith has had 4 runners in the last 4 days, with one win and one 3rd, a healthy 25% strike rate (albeit from small numbers). A factor which further boosts this stat is that RJ Smith has Goodbye Cash in the 8.00 at Kempton, which is fancied at 5/2, suggesting decent stable form.
At 12/1 I think Holyfield Warrier is slightly overpriced and good value to return to form and at least hit the frame. Custard Cream Kid is interesting, as is a Pocketful of Rye, showing some of the best recent form, but it certainly isn’t solid and I’m willing to take the market leaders on.
Total Invested: 4pts
Total Returns: 8ptsReplay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 55,00.html
JoP66
Another selection for today:
7.00 Kempton On Terms 28/1 1pt EW
Returning from a 115 day break, this filly will hopefully be fully tuned up for her first run out since 26th September 2010. She struck up a winning sequence of 4 wins, starting at Kempton, during the summer of 2010 all at todays trip 2 miles. Since then she has been upped in class on the turf, and hasn’t quite been able to reach the required level, although ran with credit at both Goddwood and Ascot.Ran in a 2mile at Kempton off a mark of 77, running very well prominently for a long way, staying on strongly to the last half furlong, only beaten by about 3 lengths. The form for the race is ok, certainly nothing special, but hopefully now after a lay off, Mr Dow will have got more improvement out of her, bearing in mind she is only lightly raced for a 5 year old.
Todays booking of Hayley Turner is certainly positive, and Dow’s current stable form is good – although no winners, has had 5 places in 10 runners in the last 2 weeks.
At 28/1 I think this horse is over priced, I expected closer to 12/1. The reason I am keeping to small stakes is due to it being her first run over the extended distance for a long time. Also, Porgy looks well weighted still on best form and has had a recent run.
Good luck
JoP66
Replay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 60,00.html
p.s. I have now placed replays of selections on my posts to allow people to view the races easily. You require log in details (free!) for the Attheraces.com replays!
Todays selection:
4.15 Primo de Vida 1pt EW 33/1
Total Invested: 2pts
Total Returns: 0ptsReplay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 21_07_1615
Todays selection:
3.40 Lingfield Anne of Kiev 4/1 2pts WIN
Total Invested: 2pts
Total Returns: 11ptsReplay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 22_06_1540
Latest figures:
Selections 127
Points invested: 307
Winners 18
Seconds 14
S/R winners: 14.17%
S/R in top 2: 25.19%Pro/Loss +193.4 pts
Todays selection:
2.40 Kempton Best Trip 7/1 1pt EW
Best trip last ran at Kempton at the end of Dec over the same distance (6f). I think this could be Best trips ‘best trip’ (no pun intended) as he won over it at his first spin around Kempton back in January. Last time out, Best trip was travelling as one of the best with about 3 furlongs to go, got a nice split up the inside rail and quickened well. However he was reeled in by improving sorts. Clear Praise was a well backed favourite next time out and placed third off a mark of 75, just half a length behind the winner. Pincansort also has won off a mark of 68 at Lingfield over 6f.This shows the form of his previous race stacks up well. The final winning distance of the race is distorted as even though Best Trip was beaten in the last 200yards, his jockey dropped his hands and didn’t keep up the chase.
R Guest stable form is decent as well, in the last two weeks he has had 7 runners, with four at leats hitting the frame, a decent 57% strike rate.
I think it is important aswell that Best Trip probably has plenty of improvement in him still, as he is only 4 years old, if compared to the old timer Dvinsky who is now 10 years old.
Best Trip has been dropped a reasonable pound for his last run, an I think Best Trip has a good shout at at least hitting the frame. This is certainly a tight race, with a few horses looking like their turn is just around the corner, notably Perlachy and Sherwajy (who both need the run of the race and come off the pace) and also Divinsky who is down to a well-weighted mark.
However at a morning price of 7/1 I think Best Trip is decent value. Anything above 5/1 is perhaps worth an EW play.Total Invested: 2pts
Total Returns: 10.75 ptsReplay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 36,00.html
Good luck
JugofPunch66
Latest figures:
Selections 128
Points invested: 309
Winners 19
Seconds 14
S/R winners: 14.84%
S/R in top 2: 25.78%Pro/Loss +202.15 pts
Selection for tomorrow:
Southwell 2.50 Arganil 11/2 3pts WIN 2pts PLACE (Bet365)
Dropped to a mark of 94, Arganil if running up to the form of last year then can take this race a shade cosily. Won off a mark of 105 at Lingfield back in March, as well as winning off 108 at Lingfield in January. Arganil definately handles the track, having won off 94 back in March 09 over this trip.Recently Arganil has been running over 6f over the turf in the back end of the summer, plus a spin over 7f at Kempton. Arganil regularly contests in class 1/2’s and should be able to give the weight away to his rivals today. His last run at Lingfield is no disgrace as his final finishing position suggests, as he was all out with about 1 furlong to go, before better 6/7 furlong horses picked up past him.
K Ryan is certainly doing well aswell, currently a 20.83% strike rate on the flat this season, 5 of his last 13 runners in the last two weeks have come first or second.
To show how big a price 11/2 currently is, Arganil went off 4/11 favourite in a class 3 over 6f at Lingfield, beating rival Aeroplane who was racing off a mark of 102. Waveband is the next rated rival on 90, therefore Waveband is a clear danger, as the change of stable from Johnstons to Barron seems to have worked some magic. But I feel Arganil should give weight away and 11/2 is a huge price, especially as an EW play.
Total Invested: 5pts
Total Returns: 22.25pts
Arganil walked out of the gates and was horrendously outpaced for the first 3 furlongs, but managed to win with a bit in hand eventually, superb ride by P Makin.
Replay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 25_05_1450
JugofPunch66
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