- This topic has 132 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 15 years ago by
.
- Posts
One further selection:
3.00 Razor Royale 1pt EW 11/1
Total Invested: 2pts
Total Returns: 0ptsRazor Royale was never really travelling and with the ground that deep I wish I hadn’t got involved with the race!!
Morning all,
Disappointed as I’ve fancied Mr Harris’s Spinning Ridge to return to form soon and he finally did it on Tuesday at 13/2, but unfortunately I’ve been extremely busy this week. ALso Suprise placed yesterday at 12/1 who I selected last week – one to keep an eye on, still improving.
Todays selection:
3.15 Doncaster
Presenting Forever
5/1
3pts WIN, 2 pts PLACE
This horse has a great EW shout to hit the front three and widely available at 5/1, I think this is a cracking price.Presenting Forever is thought to be one of the improving stable stars and it’s not hard to see why. If running up to the form of its last run behind Midnight Chase, Presenting Forever should be good enough to win this race. Despite recieving lumps of weight from the eventual winner, Presenting Forever had Midnight chase on the racks, only to be headed close home. Presenting Forever was hanging badly out in front that day, so clearly has some improvement to come. Coming so close to beating Midnight Chase who ran off a mark of 155 and is expected to go on to win more races, Presenting Forever is on a decent mark off 145.
I think 5/1 is a great price and think there is value EW down to around 4/1 or 7/2 – you will get a good run for your money.
Good day and good look to all,
JoP66
Todays selection:
7.30 Stevie Gee 18/1 1 pt EW unplaced
8.30 Kempton Bonnie Prince Blue 28/1 1 pt EW unplaced
8.30 Kempton Thunderball 17/2 1 pt EW unplacedTotal Invested: 6pts
Total returns: 0ptsWas very unimpressed with Stevie Gee’s ride – looked as if he was travelling one of the best round the turn, but was badly boxed in and didn’t see daylight when the chance had gone. With a more positive ride and another small drop in the weights will see Stevie Gee back in the winners enclosure. Thunderball was unlucky – tried to make all with blistering speed but got caught out in the last half furlong.
JoP66
Tomorrows selections:
2.05 Dan Breen 1pt EW 16/1
2.40 Chief Dan George 1pt EW 22/1
3.20 Dunguib 2pts EW 10/1
5.15 Divers 1pt EW 10/1
0.5pt EW Lucky 15Total Invested: 25pts
Total Returns: 26.75ptsAs it’s the start of Cheltenham I’ve even treated myself to a lucky 15 bet on the four above. I’m quite sweet on Dunguib turning up tomorrow to make up for last year.
Good luck everyone,
JoP
Today’s Selection:
5.40 Dickie le Davoir 3pts EW 20/1
Total Invested: 6 pts
Total Returns: 15 ptsJoP66
Tonights selection:
8.15 Wolves Steelcut 7/1 2pts EW
In-form unlike many in this bunch, form has been boosted by desert strike from previous race off a mark of 74, trainer is in form with 33% strike rate in last 14 days. Overpriced..I think Steelcut should be closer to 4/1.Total Invested: 4 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsJust run out of a place on the line, looked booked for an EW slot. Certainly races to be won with this horse – looks in decent form and the handicap mark could prove lenient.
JoP66
Todays selections:
4.05 Lingfield Halsion Chancer 3pts EW 12/1
I think Halsion Chancer has a great chance of at least hitting the frame today and at current odds of 12/1 I think this is over priced.Halsion Chancer won off a mark of 75 at Lingfield mid November, and then came third off 78 with a three pound claim two weeks later…the form of that race looks solid – Final Drive was a handicapping revelation this term, improving enough to go and race in Meydan. Wilfred Pickles has also been running solidly, since winning and placing off a mark of 78. In behind Halsion Chancer (3rd by just a length) was Syrian who has just racked up a three timer albeit over slightly further than the 8 furlongs that day. Even further back Thunderball has just recently had a win and second being raised to a mark of 80.
Halsion Chancer was rested over the winter, and then had a comeback run at Kempton two weeks ago over an 10 furlongs, a very credible run finishing 6th of 8, fading after a mile, just four and a half lengths behind Kidlat who was racing off 79 that day.
The valuable claim of Thomas Brown on board means Halsion Chancer runs off a mark of 75 today. The stable form is a slight concern but it wouldn’t put me off today.
With that comeback run under his belt, a decent draw in 4 and running over his best trip, I think Halsion Chancer looks nailed on to run a big race.
8.20 Wolves Woolfall Sovereign 2pts EW 5/1
Also has a great chance to hit the frame this evening and 5/1 looks a good price – was expecting closer to 3/1. Its win over Buxton back in January was full of in-running problems and had Buxton well held, improving the further they went. Last run was credible, just four and a half lengths behind the dead heat of bowmaker and ocean legend, just behind Lastkingofscotland who has since won off a mark of 77. Should have a good chance of at least hitting the front three.1pt EW DOUBLE
Total Invested: 12 pts
Total Returns: O ptsReally disppointed with both selections, it appeared Halsion Chancer needed a whip as he didnt respondto the jockeys urgings despite being in a great position on the home turn.
Thankfully managed to back Dickie le Davoir at 10’s to make it an ok day, just not for my figures!JoP66
Todays selections:
2.20 Beckermet 1pt EW 22/1
At first glance Beckermet looks like he has everything to do in this race to win, however I think there are reasons why he is overpriced.Beckermets figures are certainly worrying – last win was back in 2007 and since August 2009 has tumbled from a mark of 108 to todays mark of a lowly 57. That clearly shows a horse who is struggling and clearly has had plenty of issues.
However, last summer Berckermet changed stables to Mrs Carrs yard in Stillington. Since then, he has been tried over 7f and then 6f. However in the last few runs Beckermet has showed slight glimpses of a return to form – beaten only 5 lengths at Southwell at 6f off 8 pound and 5 pound higher marks, with both races throwing up a few winners since. Beckermets last run was certainly poor with no real excuses.
The interesting thing this afternoon is that he is dropped to a lowly mark of 57, with James Sullivans valuable 3lb claim, and has also been dropped to 5f. This drop in trip at first glance doesn’t look to suit, especially due to Beckermets age (a 9 year old), but Beckermet likes to be prominent if not leading, and Beckermet may be staying on gamely up the home straight for a strongly run 5f.
Beckermet may finish last, but may finish in the first three. There are a whole host of dangers, with the in-form Welcome Approach looking well weighted still. The handicapper has certainly given him a chance, and at 22/1 thats a chance I think worth taking. Anything above 14/1 could prove valuable for EW hunters.
5.20 Wolves Spic n Span 1pt EW 16/1
Blew his previous two attempts at the start of the race, and only a pound higher than winner at Southwell over 5f, going off well-backed 11/8 favourite. Could still be well weighted due to excuses for last two runs, Spic n Span does well at this time of year and has an in-form trainer who currently has a 15% win rate or all flat runners this season, 5 of his last 12 at least placing. Looks a big price at 16/1 – anything above 8/1 looks good EW value.Total Invested: 4 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsJoP66
Todays selection:
5.40 Southwell Suprise 2pts EW 7/1
Total Invested: 4 pts
Total Returns:JoP66
Tomorrows Selections:
3.10 Doncaster Harrison George 2pts EW 40/1
On first inspection, you my think I’m loopy – top weight in the Lincoln and the stable jockey has plumped for Irish Heartbeat. Further to this, Harrison George is probably best over 7f rather than mile. However there is one factor that really makes HG’s price of 40/1 in the frontfive
of the field attractive.
Looking at the weather forecast for tomorrow, there is heavy downpours expected at about 10 a.m. If this does occur, and it gets into the ground, this will play into HG’s favour alot. When running at Haydock back in July, I was lucky enough to discuss his chances with Mr Fahey at the meeting..after some early evening rain (evening meet) he was sweet on his chances on the softening ground to give weight away to some classy performers. He duly obliged with a determined performance. HG has performed with credit at a high level including last time out at Newmrket in the group 2 challenge stakes.
I think George Chaloner is decent value for his 7lb claim which will no doubt help HG’s case, and the draw in 4 looks OK (so are we stand side, far side, middle? I wonder if people are still as confused as me). HG tends to run well fresh which should help his cause.
All in all, I think the 40/1 about HG could look very very big, as if the current going were described as good to soft, HG would be around 20/1, perhaps even shorter. If the rain arrives I’ll be very interested.
4.50 Veiled Applause 1 pt EW 16/1
Generally consistent performer who could run well as long as a fall at Stratford hasn’t dented confidence. Did get a long way around so fitness will have improved to certain extent. Trainer has just had two winners in lower grades over 12-14 furlongs so could be working well at home.3.25 Kempton Montaff 2pts EW 33/1
Looks overpriced – unproven at Kempton so that has to be concern, but this is Mr Channon’s only runner in the race, trip should be OK. Ran well lst summer off higher marks without quite hitting the mark but could be very well hndicapped.Total Invested: 10 pts
Total Returns: 5ptsGood luck
JoP66National Selections:
Chief Dan George 40/1 1pt EW (Sportingbet, 5 places)
I have liked CDG for a long time. He was travelling well enough before falling at Cheltenham, which is certainly not the most ideal preparation and hoepfully it hasn’t shook his confidence in jumping too much. He was antepost fav for the Scottish national last year before ebing pulled out due to injury, and this assignment has been the year long aim for the horse. The ground should suit and hopefully he will get some luck in-running and show his true colours.
Surface to Air 100/1 1pt EW (Sportingbet, 5 places)
I fancy Surface to Air to run a big race on Saturday. The ground according to the trainer will be perfect, and I’m impressed by the horses ability over the fences when stepped up in trip back in 2008. If the horse can regain some of the form that led him to win the summer handicap at Uttoxeter over 4 miles back in 2008, then Surface to Air could prove extremely well handicapped. Last spin over hurdles should have sharpened him up for the race and I’m hoping for a big run luck permitting.I am also interested in What a Friend and Silver by Nature (alredy backed and layed) but there ain’t much value left in the two. I have a strong fancy for the Mersey Novices Hurdle too which I will post up Friday night.
Hope everyone has a super Aintree,
Total Investment: 4pts
Total Returns: 0pts
JoP66Tomorrows selections:
2.00 Brampour 9/1 1pt EW
2.30 Robinson Collonges 10/1 1pt EW
3.40 Dev 8/1 2pts EW
4.50 Sir Harry Ormesher 25/1 1pt EW
Total Invested: 10 pts
Total Returns: 7.25 ptsJoP66
Can’t say I’ve noticed 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.