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Todays selection:
6.35 Kempton Ramora 12/1 1pt EW
Total invested: 2pts
Total Returns: 4ptsReplay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 54,00.html
JugofPunch66
Tomorrows selection:
7.20 Kempton Feelin Foxy 8/1 1pt EW
This is by far the best race on the card at Kempton. It is an extremely tight handicap – it would be no suprise to see a blanket finish.I am interested in Feeling Foxy in the race. Feelin Foxy is clearly in good form, its last run coming just yesterday, a two and a half length defeat to Arganil (off 94) and Waveband (90 and going up). This would suggest Feelin Foxy was running up to a mark of about 90 – 95.
There are multiple clear dangers. Diriculous is a clear danger, a decent return to form at Wolves last time off a mark of 83, and had decent previous form behind the well weighted Anne of Kiev who has since won off a mark of 91 (However the fact Diriculous only ran twice last year worries me). On this race form line, Meethaly is weighted to go closer than last time, when second to Diriculous. The same applies to Lujeanie. Ebraam looked dangerous behind the selection last time, but I couldn’t help feel that he looked held at the finish, despite it being over 5 furlongs that day.
There are other dangers lurking, but I could write all evening about the messy form lines that make this quite a difficult puzzle. However I feel Feelin Foxy is a decent EW bet. She will be up with the pace so the race won’t get away from her, its a decent draw, and she seems to be quite difficult to pass. I am viewing the quick turnaround as a positive – it shows Given knows Feelin Foy is in rude health. I think anything above 5/1 is value.
Total Invested: 2 pts
Total Returns: 2 ptsJoP66
Todays selection:
2.55 Lingfield Timeteam 16/1 2 pts EW
I’m interested in Timeteam today in a tight little handicap at Lingfield. Over the summer this gelding was running on the turf off a winning mark of 74, and then running with credit off 77 at Brighton two times. The last time was over 6f which i think is Timeteams best distance, and he dwelt before being hampered in running on the rail, losing by just 5 lengths after the in-running problems. The reason why I think this is important is that I think Timeteam was unlucky not to be rated closer to his marks of 85 (albeit not a winning mark) the summer before.Since the last run at Brighton, he has run over the longer trip of 7f at Lingfield, running with credit once again against some decent all weather yardsticks such as Caprio and Lend a Grand. He then ran over a completely inadequate 1 mile 2 furlongs, struggling over such a long distance.
Timeteam has since moved to Mr Baileys stable which is significant. Mr Bailey has a very impressive strike rate this season – a positive +5.10 strike rate, a decent 20% win ratio on the flat from 25 runners.
One of the clear problems Timeteam has is blowing the start of his races, and on numerous occasions has blown all chance, notably his previous two trips to Lingfield at the start of 2010. If the change of stable and work on his starts has had a positive effect, Timeteam could run very well today off a mark of 65 with a posiitve jockey booking of Spencer in the saddle.
There are a few decent performers in the field, notably the improving Dancing Welcome. At morning prices of 16/1, I think Timeteam is a decent EW bet to hit the frame. Anything above 8/1 I feel is value in this tight race.
Total Invested: 4 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsSuch a disappointment, I was really looking forward to this horse running with conditions to suit. Such a shame as punters we don’t get our money back from this situation. Clearly Timeteam is an absolute monkey still and can’t be trusted with big stakes until A Baily proves otherwise!! Keep an eye out for him in the future.
JoP66
Further selection for today:
4.10 Cheltenham First Avenue 2pts EW 28/1
Brilliant comeback run after a year out in the Mille Chief race at Sandown. Travelled very well for a long way tracking Mille Chief, especially in the heavy ground, and found slight trouble in-running about 3 furlongs out when his lack of fitness really kicked in. Should be miuch sharper for that run, and a good bet to hit the first 4 at 28/1 (anything above 16/1 is decent value).Total Invested: 4pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsReplay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … _3,00.html
Disappointing run, struggled to keep with the pace throughout. I would like to see him run up with the pace more next time, as he certainly doesn’t have a turn off foot from what he’s shown so far. One to watch when perhaps dropped in class.
JoP66
Tomorrows selections:
Wolves 4.20 Forward Feline 16/1 1pt EW
This mare is returning from a 135 day break, last running in September over course and distance, coming 4th just over 2 lengths behind the winner Perfect Friend. Perfect friend went on to place off a mark of 69 over C&D, 3rd off a mark of 70 at Lingfield and then a decent run at Kempton off 70, only beaten a length and a half.Second in the race, Just Timmy Marcus went on to hold his form off marks of 64 – 65. Lord of the Dance who was third in the race, has now won off a mark of 70, and also ran with credit behind the unbelievable Final Drive (recently just placed in Meydan) and Miami Gator, who currently races off a mark of 79.
However the form line that really interests me with this mare is the dead heat over C&D with Kuanyao back on 12th December 2009. Kuanyao dead heated with Forward Feline off a mark of 68, and then improved beyond all means and has finished the season winning off a mark of 84 at Newmarket.
This suggests to me that Forward Feline was racing off a mark of a solid 68-75 rating, and in the context of this race tomorrow, it puts her firmly in the mix. I believe of the other runs through the season, Forward Feline held her form well, often running into one too good (e.g. I Confess and SmallJohn) and it must be highlighted she only ran 9 times in 2010, which isn’t much for most AW performers. As I have highlighted earlier, her last run has solid form behind it, and I hope that B Palling can squeeze a bit more improvement out of her now aged 5.
B Palling’s stable form is currently solid, ten runs on the flat so far, 6 of them hitting 3rd. This may suggest that B Pallings stable horses need the run, but after 135 days I hope he will have Forward feline fully tuned up for the race.
There are clear dangers in the field, notably Broughtons Day who runs without a penalty from today, but from that run it looked like he needed every inch of the 8 furlongs, whereas tomorrows race is over seven. Also, San Antonio should have won the race (poor jockey skills up front from apprentice). Buxton will no doubt cruise up with about 2 furlongs to go, but often struggles to find much, but looks weighted to go close. Yankee Storm looks solid, but may struggle to give so much weight away, notably 6 pounds to Forward Feline. I think the biggest dangers however could be the Easterby runners Nacho Libre (back to form last run) and Wigrams’s Turn (dropped markedly in the weights).
All in all, another tight 7 furlong sprint, but for me Forward Feline looked stood out to me as a mare who may still be improving and may be ‘lucky’ not to have a higher rating from previous runs. At a price of 16/1 against the field, I think this is decent EW value. Anything above double figures I believe is value.
I was also interested in Mushy Peas in the 1.35 at Wolves aswell.
Smart run in behind Loyal Royal and Caramelita over 6f, with recent winner West Leake (racing in the 4.20!) in behind. Blew race next time out after dwelling in the gates despite being backed into favourite. I am not going to select Mushy Peas however, for two reasons. There is currently no prices but will probably be favourite with little value due to the range of dangers in the field, and I also have a niggling feeling 7 furlongs might be slightly to far for him.Good luck one and all,
Total Invested: 2 pts
Total Returns: 0ptsJoP66
Todays selections:
5.10 what katie did 12/1 1pt ew
7.40 white shift 14/1 1pt ew
1pt ew double6.40 a pocketful of rye 20/1 1pt ew
Total invested: 8pts
Total Returns: 0ptsTodays selections:
3.05 Mark Antony 14/1 1pt EW
4.50 Hidden Glory 14/1 1pt EW
Wolves 6.50 Street Crime 28/1 2pts EW
JoPSelections for tomorrow:
3.20 Silver by Nature 9/1 2pts EW
Ran last in a the Welsh national, and has dropped from 156 to 149 for its run in the Welsh National, with a perfectly acceptable run from that mark, not thrown about when struggling from 2 furlongs out. The race before Silver by Nature blundered first and never really recovered. The race before that, Silver by Nature won very easily off a 6lb lower mark of 143 over the same distance on very testing ground, which will be similar to tomorrow which will suit Silver by nature. Should give a good run for your money, has a +£23.63 strike rate to level stakes. Miss Lucinda Russell is also in good form, 15 of her last 33 runners (45% strike rate) have hit the front three.It’s interesting Silver by Nature is currently 40s best price for the National, that could be a fair bit shorter after the race tomorrow.
Also wanted to draw attention to my big National fancy Chief Dan George is running tomorrow finally! Looking forward to seeing how he is raced. Apparently the national has been his season target since being withdrawn out of the Scottish national as fav last year.
Total Invested: 4pts
Total Returns: 29ptsPossibly the easiest 10/1 winner I’ve ever managed to invest in, brilliant run. Now as short as 14/1 in places for the national, a decent back/lay profit. Willl be very interesting for the national with such a strong performance.
Latest figures:
Selections 141
Points invested: 348
Winners 21
Seconds 14
S/R winners: 14.89%
S/R in top 2: 24.82%Pro/Loss +225.4 pts
Todays selections:
6.00 Wolves Forward Feline 2pts EW 25/1
I selected Forward Feline not too long ago, and she ran as if needing the run, struggling from about two furlongs out. Forward Feline will strip fitter for the run after the 135 day break, and I still think there is improvement to come from the mare. The stable form is OK, 7 from 19 have placed (37%)this season. Please see previous post for more detailed analysis! She looks a big price to hit the frame.3.00 Wolves Dancing Poppy 1pt EW 33/1
4.30 Harry Lime 2pts WIN 11/2 (Coral)
Total Invested: 8pts
Total Returns: 14.5ptsDancing Poppy travelled well until about 2furlongs to go – 1m 2f/ 1m 3f is probably the distance needed. One to follow in a similar event. Harry Lime was extremely disappointing!
JoP66
Todays selection:
2.20 Eastern Hills 11/2 2pts EW
I think Eastern Hills has a decent chance to at least hit the front two in this race and is over priced accordingly, currently 11/2 with Skybet.Eastern Hills has won over C&D as recently as 10th December, and in the three runs since has had excuses to suggest this gelding is still in good form, despite what the form figures show. The victory at Southwell looked a workmanlike display, grabbing a couple of lengths around the turn and was not for stopping, galloping down the straight. Eastern Hills was raised from 62 to 66 for that win, but bumped into Dubai Hills next time out. When it was clear the race was gone, Eastern Hills received a hands and heels ride down the straight.
The race after that Eastern Hills ran at Wolves and finished a decent 5th, just short of 5 lengths off Woolfall Sovereign. This race was worked out extremely well, West Leake who finished in 3rd has since gone on to win two races, and Forward Feline (6th, a further 2 lengths behind Eastern Hills) placed yesterday off 63, and also Yankee Storm (4th) came second off a mark of 69. Therefore this race stands up well.
Eastern Hills last race was at Lingfield 16 days ago over 1m, and was in contention coming around the final behind, despite being pushed along (although never looked likely to be winning the race). He went wide around the bend, and the leading bunch stole a few lengths out of him and within about 5 seconds the race had past Eastern Hills. Mr Winston immediately dropped his hands and that was race over.
That was off a mark of 65, just 3 pounds higher than Eastern Hills dominant success back in December. I think Eastern Hills probably requires a race run to suit, up with the pace and then stealing a few lengths, making it a catch me if you can scenario.
San Antonio is a clear danger, running very well at present, but this mark of 70 should find him out, as he tends to find one too good, and that was off marks of 60. I can’t help thinking Postman will be a danger after his return spin at the end of Jan and could be a danger.
Therefore I believe Eastern Hills is a proven performer at a mark of 65 and that should be enough to hit the frame in the context of this race. At 11/2 Eastern Hills looks overpriced, anything above 4/1 is probably decent value.
Good Luck
Total Invested: 4 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsReplay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 22_02_1420
Really disappointing result – looked a winner all over when travelling very well around the turn, but managed to find nothing up the straight.
JoP66
5.35 Kempton Your Gifted 14/1 2pts EW
Appears in decent form still, 5f is best distance. Previous run at Wolves can be ignored due to slow start and short of room in running, and last run at Kempton off a pound higher mark was credible, just two and a half lengths off the winner Island Legend.
Pat Morris has a decent 17.24% strike so far this season from 29 runners.
Seems a big price – anything above 8/1 is decent value.Replay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 05,00.html
2,55 Suprise 11/1 2pts EW
Ran well over 9f last time until weakening in the last furlong, is now being dropped back to 7f. First time in a handicap, is a big EW price. Money around this morning too which boosts the confidence.Replay: http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/ … 23_03_1455
1pt EW Double
8.05 On good form 20/1 0.5pt EW
Raced too keenly last time out, and previous run at Kempton was decent. Yard is now hitting form too. Down a further pound for those last two runs. May struggle with Clear Praise, but is a decent EW price to hit the frame. Anything above 12/1 is value.Replay: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … _3,00.html
Total Invested: 11 pts
Total Returns: 0 ptsSuprise struggled to get across from the wide draw, and was also running extremely green throughout. But she was staying on extremley well, just missing out on the placings, so I will definately be following her over 7f/8f next time out.
Your gifted really unlucky not to place, losing by a short head to 3rd. Was travelling the best with 2furlongs to go, but the split didn’t come quick enough and was slightly boxed in, making good late headway. A winner in waiting to recoup the loses.
On Good Form – No Comment!
Todays selections:
4.20 Southwell Mark Antony 14/1 2pts EW
Selected not too long ago, but never really got into the race.
Should strip fitter for the run at Lingfield, and first time blinkers could do just the trick to settle the horse.4.50 Bel Cantor 8/1 1pt EW
Don’t usually like selecting more than one horse in a race but really can’t split these too. Both on winnable marks.
I think Spinning Ridge needs to be rode prominently and take a few lengths out of the field, but a niggling doubt is that he may be taken on for the lead today which will damage his chances. The wide draw will also make life difficult, but David Probert gets on with the horse well which should help. However at 12’s I think he is slightly overpriced. Trainer has also had 9 placings in the last 24 runners (+£5.38).
Bel Cantor has been running consistency and has had every chance on previous few runnings – should give good account. Trainer is in decent form (3 of last 7 runners placing) and has fancied runner Eton Fable in the 2.40 which could give good indicator.
Total Invested: 8pts
Total Returns:JoP66
Todays selections:
5.25 Azygous
20/1
3pts EW
Good run over C&D after break, should figure alot closer today, over priced above 7/1. Was also interested in What Katie Did but thing she has a poor draw to overcome.7.25 Secret Queen
33/1
0.5 pt EW
May need the run, but if fully tuned up could be very progressive over the longer trip and could be on a lenient mark.
2.00 Lingfield White Shift
8/1
1pt EW
Total Invested: 9pts
Total Returns: 0ptsJoP66
Terrible few days, but a winner is always around the corner. But onwards and upwards, could do with a winner. Im straying away from Newcastle today due to the extremely heavy ground, so I will focus on Lingfield as I do prefer the AW!
2.10 Pincansort
12/1
2pts EW
C&d winner who can be forgiven last run, came out the gates right and was slowly into stride, pulling extremely hard. Has been extremely progressive this year under Mr Johnson and I don’t think this bay gelding is finished. Some every good performers in the line up, especially Artic Lynx who also looks very progressive. However Artic Lynx is 5/2 this morning, whereas Pincansort is 12/1. A decent EW play, anything over 7/1 is value.Total Invested: 4pts
Total Returns:Have a good weekend people,
JoP66
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