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Had a brief look at the novice chase entries last night. Unfortunately, nothing stood out. Not easy trying to salvage a bit of a wreck. As you know I have Ordinary World in the Arkle but unless there is a very small field I am pretty sure it will be Grand Annual. I think it is now a question of waiting for the race and then deciding whether to take a short price on Altior or maybe Waiting Patiently in a without market. My betting on short prices is poor but occasionally bookmakers will produce a standout offer such as when Corals went 1/1 Sprinter Sacre. It was just about the equivalent of finding a £20 note in the street. I have Clan Des Obeaux in the JLT but I suspect he won’t run and to be fair he doesn’t look good enough on the evidence of his last run. I think it was his two runs over three miles that put me off Nambour. Perhaps something like the Topham could be right up his street? I did look at Our Kaempfer but although he has plenty of ability I think he needs both a sound surface and everything to go his way. If he hits one it is probably game over. So back to the drawing board.
I’ll stick with Ordinary World & Waiting Patiently as well for The Arkle. It’s extremely unusual for me to have this much interest in this race, and should neither make it, I’ll add something on the day to my Lucky 63, but I’ll not be giving it much of a look between now and day, while I have Its’afreebee as my only interest for both The JLT & RSA, and he’ll probably not be good enough. Very much like The Arkle, I’ll leave the race alone now until the day of the race.
I gave Nambour a good word for The 4 Miler in the race thread, but Tiger Roll has become my #1 for that race, and I’m very keen. It’s became my favourite Novice Chase over the last few years (even when on a long losing streak in it), and really look forward to it.
I know the entries aren’t out yet, but I may be the only person who likes The Novices Handicap. A good run tomorrow could see Thomas Crapper come into contention, while I’m very, very interested in Theinval.
On the subject of Harrington, I’m still amazed at the news about Our Duke, and very surprised with her. I’m pleased that, not only do I not have a bet on Our Duke, but I also don’t have any significant interest in the race either, so I can give my opinions from a very neutral standpoint. It’s just very, very poor, and much worse than Mullins, as people expect it anyway. Put it like this, if I trained Our Duke, and was aware that it was well fancied, I’d release a press statement immediately, and anyone who backed him has my sympathy.
Cracking wee hurdle race tomorrow at Naas. As well as old Ttebbob, we have one of Ivan Grozny, my now (doomed?) dark horse for Champion Hurdle, Sutton Place, who has bags of potential, and Minella Foru, who I reckon could be an Aintree horse.
Mount Mews and Brio Conti the two obvious ones from today’s racing. As I said on the other thread I have a feeling that if Mount Mews is stepped up it might be Aintree rather than Cheltenham and perhaps Brio Conti might be one for the Martin Pipe?
I filed that Naas race under too difficult and decided to concentrate on Cheltenham and Doncaster. It will interesting to see how much rain they both get. It looks sheer madness that Hobbs is pitching Defi Du Seuil in against Charli Parcs. Why does he need any further practice at Cheltenham? It is probably the most ridiculous match-up I have ever seen. Given what has happened on the ante-post front this week I already expect the worst. The two I like best in the novice handicap are Mercian Prince and Singlefarmpayment. The latter wouldn’t want too much rain. This is the race one of my old favourite’s, Monsieur Le Cure, won off topweight before completing the Cheltenham/Aintree novice chase double. I never get Venetia Williams right but other than that I can’t see why Aso shouldn’t run well in the following handicap. Several interesting ones in the staying novice hurdle but I thought the 14/1 about Kimberlite King was too big. No bet but it goes without saying I will be keeping a close eye on Thistlecrack. I defended him after his first two starts but for me there are now serious doubts about both his jumping and stamina. He consistently freewheeled away from the opposition over hurdles, he didn’t do that last time at Cheltenham, or at Kempton. I think he is much more vulnerable than the markets suggest. Unowhatimeanharry should win the stayers trial but at the moment he is too short for me.
Hopefully, it will finally be Happy Diva time at Doncaster. I had a nice win on the favourite when he won his Irish bumper but I am not sure he is worth the amount they subsequently paid. His close relation runs in the concluding Naas bumper. If they don’t get much rain and he can maintain his new found consistency Steeplechasing’s old friend, Un Beau Roman should go well in the handicap chase. Cloudy Dream looks the one to beat in the novice chase but too short for me to back. The mare’s bumper doesn’t look that great a race. I am waiting to see if one drifts out. Will post it up if and when I get on.
Plenty of good horses but not the easiest betting day.
Good luck with yours tomorrow.
Wanted to oppose Un De Sceaux. Used to think he was a serious Champion Hurdle contender but in restraining him Walsh appears to have taken away the speed which came with his natural exuberance. Whatever happens I don’t believe he wins anything at the Festival. Top Gamble will do for me.
Several backed in that Doncaster bumper but fortunately not the one I wanted. Having watched the two point wins I find it hard to believe Timetobenefit is eight times the price of Maria’s Benefit. Timeforbenefit was third behind two above average mares and then she quickened very nicely to take her maiden. The relatively cheap purchase price might be explained by her age and size. Stable has had a couple of winners recently. Her full sister also won her point on good ground so rain would be a negative.
Yeah, was definitely in the Un De Sceaux Champion Hurdle camp, but my enthusiasm has waned with him over the last year. I still think he’s very good, but I’ve never been convinced that he should be as short as he is for The Ryanair.
I had planned to have a couple of quid on Midnight Charm in that bumper, but Timeforabenefit doesn’t look completely out of it, so I could be swayed with a small rev exacta as well.
I didn’t get a chance to reply to your earlier post, but any post that gives a mention to old Monsieur Le Cure is alright by me, I loved that horse, and have never watched the 96 Gold Cup since. He would have won that day.
I’m a big fan of Defi De Seuil, but agreed with you, seemed a run for the sake of it, but having watched his jumping today, it’s maybe they realised he needs a helluva lot more practice.
Sorry for the quick update, will give a proper one later on tonight.
Skybet Chase
Potters Cross, Ziga Boy, Another Hero
50p Combaination Exactas & Trifectas-£603.77
Well, I was right about it not being the easiest betting day, but sadly not much else.
I never lay horses so I made nothing from being spot on about Thistlecrack. As I said on the other thread I was the only one to raise the stamina question mark straight after the King George and also to suggest that run was only worth a rating in the low 160’s. I think it would now be another mistake to try and suggest that Many Clouds improved today just to justify the runner up’s lofty rating. Even on a sound surface Thistlecrack is going to struggle to get home in March. Sadly, I think people will come to realise that he was just a much better staying hurdler than chaser and lucky to land a very ordinary King George.
The performance that impressed me most today was Royal Vacation. I know there were a few casualties but that was a really strongly run race and he travelled and jumped very well. Mercian Prince was only just behind when crashing out, disappointing as it was just about his only mistake. As a result I took the 33/1 Royal Vacation for the RSA and 25/1 Mercian Prince NRNB for the Close Brothers. I know Royal Vacation was very fortunate at Kempton but that race was a totally different test and course form is a big plus. That said a drop of rain in March would be a help.
Of my others Happy Diva went from the travelling the best to nothing in a couple of strides, eventually losing the each-way money to a 50/1 shot. Surely there was something amiss? Back at Cheltenham and true to form (where Venetia is concerned) Aso ran an absolute shocker, Top Gamble looked pretty lethargic throughout in a weak Clarence House, and despite halving in price, Kimberlite Candy ran no race at all. No money for the bumper mare who never looked to be striding out with any purpose.
Yeah, it was a tough day for betting alright, and the only horses I bet today were Potters Cross & Court Minstrel. Potters just found The Skybet too much for him, and that was that. I had him at 1000’s for Aintree, but he won’t be getting in now. Court Minstrel had no real chance on that ground, but I had to have a go.
Huge disappointment of the day for me was Vroum Vroum Mag. I’d ideas of her trapping in The Champion Hurdle, but hard to see her figure now, and I’ve overrated her just a bit. Ivan Grozny was poor as well, but at least I know now, and I still remain a big fan. Hopefully I can get a win from him before the seasons out.
Couple of really good results for me today, and one of them was in that race where Ivan flopped. I’ve been going on about Sutton Place for a while, and even bet him as well for The Champion Hurdle. I thought he was very impressive today, and I’m on him at 25’s for The Betfair Hurdle. I’m not 100% certain he’ll got there, but he looks chucked in now, which is what I suspected anyway, even before todays win. The other good news was Ziga Boy in The Skybet. On at 16’s a couple of weeks ago, and not often I can say this, but at halfway I was pretty confident, and he won it well. I still think he’d have won The Becher, but he was brought down at the first, and needed a change of fortune. I think The National will be beyond him now on his elevated mark, but I’m on at decent odds, and hoping for a good trade.
Love Thistlecrack, and he did me proud in The King George, but I would have agreed with you, in that he was a wee bit overhyped afterwards (I never said that on here to be fair) as it was quite a weak renewal. I wouldn’t be in quite a big a rush as yourself to put a line through him, but it certainly raises a few questions, and there might just be a bit more competition in The Gold Cup for him now.
Yeah, can’t argue with Royal Vacation bet, he was smashing today, and although there were a few casualties, I don’t think too many would have lived with him, and I think you have a decent bet there. I’ll have to have a closer look at Mercian, as he’s a horse who has passed me by, but on todays showing that race looks preferable to The JLT.
Yeah, Happy Diva really flattered to deceive, and I wouldn’t be too concerned about Venetias just now. I try to avoid her Jan/Feb, and try to spot the “dark ones”. I’m still keen on Bright New Dawn for The Plate, though considering my risible record in that race, he’s probably the first one to put a line through lol.
Only other horses I really took out of today were Saphir Du Rheu, who I thought jumped a lot better. Although he might not put it all in, I still think he looks way short of full fitness & has clearly had physical problems. The other was Smad Place, who must surely be worth chancing in The Ryanair ( I won’t mention Uxizandre for that race, as I think every man and their dog took a note of that run)
Definitely no bets tomorrow.
No reason for me to particularly be against Thistlecrack because I have backed him but I did flag up when listing my bets that I had little confidence. I don’t buy the idea that a Gold Cup on better ground will be that much less of a stamina test because the pace will be significantly quicker. Ideally Scudamore would want to go forward on Thistlecrack to negate the jumping frailties but he knows he can’t do that because of the stamina limitations.
I would be very wary of getting too excited about Uxizandre. I think the fact that he got so close on ground that wouldn’t have suited suggested that it wasn’t a very good race. Un De Sceaux has still won easily despite ballooning numerous fences. I was disappointed in Top Gamble and I don’t think he is worth his rating. Special Tiara ran a shocker.
No bet for me either as Monalee has been taken out. Not sure why.
Wonder if they’ll use headgear again at Cheltenham with Uxizandre? I am hopeful for a good run from him, having backed Sizing John for the ChCh instead of the Ryanair.
Had another look at the four miler. As a fan of Tiger Roll can you explain why he is more than half the price of Heron Heights? When they met it looked to me as if that one completely outjumped him and won entirely on merit. That after taking more than a mile to get settled. If you could guarantee good ground I would have thought he was of some interest at 66/1? His dam is an unraced half sister to Take A Stand who stayed pretty well.
Heron Heights would be the perfect example of why I’m not doing a “book” on this race, there are just too many horses who catch the eye, and both he and the runner up that day at Cheltenham could be made a case for. I’d be amazed if Heron doesn’t go for it based on that run. I can explain why I’m going for Tiger Roll (Festival Form, Owner/Trainer combo, nature of win in Munster National etc), but what I can’t explain is why the bloody hell he is 66’s. That’s a ridiculous price, and I’m not sure why I didn’t clock that. I’ll try to stick to my guns and not bet any more in this for the timebeing, but that is a price and a half.
Apologies earlier, I had forgotten you were on Thistlecrack, but as it is, your points remain valid, and you’d be looking for a bit more come the big one.
Shame about Monalee missing out, was there any explanation?? I hope there’s no issues, as he’s still a nice price for Cheltenham.
Glad I stuck by my no bets rule today, but a decent day for me in my ante-post books, with the win from Petit Mouchoir (wasn’t blown away by him), and also from the news that Champagne West is heading for The Gold Cup, that news was a big deal to me, and should single handedly put me ahead on the race, and possibly even before January is out. I’ve only managed that as early once before. in my 7 previous attempts.
No idea Moe, not sure of Alan Kings form for tinkering with the headgear, but decent enough comeback after such a long layoff. Unfortunately for you, a lot of the value is gone, but I’d definitely be covering Sizing John just in case. Great pick for you with him, but as I think you know, it looks like the wrong race for you.
What do you think is going to happen with Sutton Place? Visually, he looked really good but not sure of the value of the form with Ttebbob finishing relatively close.
They’ve said that he won’t be going to Newbury, and may even miss Cheltenham, but I’m not so sure. He was very popular for The Betfair after Saturday, but then interest cooled on the back of those statements.
Today, however has seen a lot of activity, he’s been very popular for The Betfair, and is now 6-1 fav with some books, and he’s been introduced to The Champion Hurdle Market with 4 firms, and is low as 12’s with Bet365. I’m very hopeful, I added him to The Champion Hurdle way back in July, and been betting him steadily since then at big prices. If they just introduce him to the market I will be delighted, but no move on that front yet.
We both know Ttebbob very well (sorry for reminding you), and if you’d told me before the race he’d be in close proximity, then yes, I’d be very concerned, but both that visual impression Sutton Place, and the fact that Ttebbob looked considerably more interested this time around, gives me some real encouragement.
Thanks, although he clearly had plenty left given that he had been off for quite a time I would have thought three relatively quick runs might be a big ask? Perhaps they might save him for Aintree/Punchestown, particularly as JP has already made the move with Buveur D’Air?
I have now added Unowhatimeanharry (15/8), Peregrine Run (33/1 NRNB Coral Cup) and Coney Island (14/1 NRNB JLT).
Unowhatimeanharry is not my sort of price but other than very quick ground it is hard to see a realistic danger. Hopefully, he can pay for a couple of the other bets. Peregrine Run was beaten by the ground last time and if he turns up I can see him going well in the handicap. Coney Island is hopefully, a better option to Clan Des Obeaux who as you know I don’t expect to run.
Bet365 have now gone NRNB but have taken the hacksaw to many prices. Don’t think there is any point looking at those that have been cut.
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