- This topic has 336 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
Thanks again Joliff, really having to pinch myself at the moment. I don’t think I’ve ever been on this kind of run before.
I’ve got nothing else to do tonight so I think I’ll just plough through tomorrow’s cards, starting with Chantilly. Anything catching your eye?
Tempted to leave the Arc alone as there are a lot of imponderables regarding trip and ground, Ensble should win but at evens in a race such as this? Not for me.
I don’t usually like betting in sprints but I do think Signs of a Blessing rates good value at about 9/2, has a good record over C&D and won’t mind the conditions.
Over in Ireland and I think Onenightidreamed is overpriced at 7/1 with everything in his favour.
In that Tipperary race, I certainly agree with trying to find something against Downforce since he was a bit flat last week. Psychedelic Funk’s chance is all in the price already too. I guess that 7/1 Onenightidreamed could go either way – depends on vibes about how well the horse is after a break. Big player if at ready to go though.
I’m going to chuck a few quid each-way at Spanish Tenor at 25/1. Juvenile form looks good in hindsight and bounced back with an immense weight-carrying win last time. Loves the soft ground and has a good high draw for the old ‘Tipperary slingshot’ effect.
Looking for more bets to add to Spanish Tenor…
4.45 Musselburgh – The price is already going on the one I’ve backed so this is a bit of a dubious ‘tip’ (personally see this thread as more of a diary than a tipping column anyway!) but I think London Glory is the one to be with. Stanarley Pic won’t be allowed the run of the race here and looks like one to take on for a trainer I’m not in love with. Traditional Dancer’s attitude is under suspicion and the rest are quite well exposed. Ghostly Arc was second in the race last year but had the run of it and doesn’t get any special treatment from me. London Glory isn’t the most consistent but he has a bit of untapped potential – previously never running on soft ground or given a positive ride at this trip before winning quite decisively last time. You need to be handy at Musselburgh but Joe Fanning is aboard and he knows no other way. Will hopefully sit third or fourth before pouncing.
Personally I’m not 100% convinced that the whole Magical/Happily line of form is much cop. Neither Happily nor September really have pedigrees to do much on soft ground so I find it a bit suspect that they were first and third the Moyglare. Looking for alternatives (small stakes only) I’m going to play a little left field in the Prix Marcel Ballsack. My friend Leo has his ear to the ground with the German scene and he says they’re buzzing about Narella and see her as the best juvenile filly they’ve had for a few years. I’ll take a chance on her at 12/1 with a BOG firm (could well SP bigger in the British industry).
On a similar line of reasoning, I’ll have a small go on Olmedo in the Lagardere. He was a bit unlucky last time – taking time to get organised and only just failing to catch one who was allowed first run. He was the only horse to make up significant ground in the race.
In the Arc, I’m already on Enable ante-post and am quite happy to leave it to her. Also an ante-post loser with Highland Reel.
In the Opera, I’m going to take a chance on Onthemoonagain each-way. We know Hydrangea is no star so Moore’s choice suggests Rhododendron is not firing. Many of these would prefer better ground so I’m looking for an alternative with soft ground form. Shamreen is the obvious one but there’s no juice in her price. Onthemoonagain split two G1 fillies last time out and still has scope to improve further in the big field/strong pace scenario, especially if given more of a proactive ride by Soumillon.
The Abbaye is a real betting race with Marsha one to swerve on soft ground and Battash possibly starting to unravel after getting stirred up pre-race last time. I can see Joliff’s angle with Signs Of Blessing but personally I’ve always seen that horse as a bit of a fraud – best when bossing small fields, beating unfit horses or winning substandard G1s. I’m going to give the call to Profitable, who can be easily forgiven his latest run when caught too far away from the action. He goes on the ground
It’s a rank renewal of the Foret, as shown by Aclaim’s status as hot favourite. Zelzal has ground issues, Brando is on the retrieval mission and quite a few of these have niggly little doubts. At a huge price, I’m going to have a little each-way tickle on Toscanini. In hindsight, his City Of York Stakes second looks like a huge run with 3rd Suedois winning a G2 and 4th Jallota a fine third to Beat The Bank on Friday. Toscanini has had a bizarre season (pacemaker for Ribchester, missed the break at Goodwood) but his latest run shows there is life in him yet. Quite positive that Richard Fahey thinks he is worth sending across to France too.
Interesting take on SOAB, has beaten larger fields before such as in the Gheest, I think everything points to a decent run on the back of his last win. Marsha is the clear danger but does prefer it faster and I think Bataash does too although thatGoodwood win was pretty good. The second that day Profitable to turn the tables? Not for me and he was mid-div in this race last year.
Profitable had a tougher campaign last season and was probably well over-the-top by the time he got to the Abbaye. In hindsight SOB’s Gheest doesn’t look like a vintage race – Donjuan Triumphant and Jimmy Two Times chasing him home, Suedois clinically abnormal post race…
Granted, I’m making quite a few assumptions en route to making Profitable the bet…but I’m almost taking it for granted that Marsha will underperform and I think there’s a big chance of Battaash fusing out too. Profitable has had a much lighter campaign than last year and I think he’ll improve on his previous Abbaye run.
I do have a bit of a long-term bias against Signs Of Blessing so maybe he’ll earn my respect here. I suppose he did beat (an admittedly unfit) Profitable when conceding 11lbs early in the season. My perception is that there isn’t a whole lot between the two horses so I’d rather take the one at 12/1 than the one at 4/1.
Well done with the winners today Soldier
Obviously very happy myself with Ballyboley, and you could have called him the winner a long way out, and that leap at the third last??, the one with the camera behind the fence, I knew he had it. I still can’t believe that price.
Well done with High School Days, and I had a rare moment in that race myself. Although it’s done really well, I’ve never claimed to have made any money off of “Play it Again”, and I rarely bet them, but had a wee each punt on Wild Sam, as I thought him too big at the 20’s, so to get 25’s was great.
We had a good day going for the same horse with Ballyboley, and the “good news” for you, is that we’ll be in the same boat with Narella & Toscanini tomorrow, and I’m also chewing over Profitable.
Cheers Bobby. Yeah, that was a bit mad with Ballybolley. He absolutely tanks through his races when he’s on song. Smart ride from Daryl Jacob (in the end) too. Looked like he was trying to get to the lead initially but then dropped in behind. I got my money on the night before because I felt sure he’d be backed in the morning. Surprised at the SP. What next for Ballybolley do you think? He’ll be 150ish after that. Try for some conditions races or fall back into the ranks until ‘his race’ at Haydock in the spring? Old Roan could be an option too?
Wild Sam did run well for you. He’ll find easier handicaps in the grade than that if he can hold his form now. I usually top-up on drifters but I make an exception in Irish handicaps. I thought High School Days would run like a corpse when he drifted from 4/1 to an BSP of 10.5! Missed out there but BPG on the original bet is always nice.
Nice – it’s working out pretty well so far when we’re united on a horse! Did you see today’s races at Chantilly? French racing can be so frustrating to watch. So often they just dawdle and let the prominent racers kick first off the bend. I hope we don’t have any hard luck stories this time tomorrow.
Sorry, I didn’t catch the Chantilly races at all, as I don’t usually watch the French Action, unless there’s a few NH runners from these shores.
Counting my Washington DC bet, by close of play tomorrow, I’ll have had more bets on French Racing for this card, than I’ve had altogether before.
I didn’t smash it out of the park today but the each-way chisels kept me afloat. Still quite nicely ahead on the day despite no winners (Spanish Tenor 25/1, Profitable 12/1 and London Glory the heroes) plus the big ante-post payday from Enable. Looking good on my AOB G1 winners record bet now too.
The French stuff didn’t go my way but I was never going to stake enough for it to make many waves in my bankroll.
I’ve had a good scout through tomorrow’s jumps cards for a few Monday bets.
In the 1.50 at Newters, I’m happy to take 7/2+ about Ginge De Sophia. Green Or Black was fit from the flat when a very mediocre 3rd a few weeks ago, while Drinks Interval looks in need of more of a test. Nigel Twiston-Davies is flying right now and Ginge De Sophia’s best bumper form would be more than good enough. If she takes to hurdling, she should take this.
I’ve been pricing these races up so I’ve been in a good position to snipe some early ricks. I took 10/1 about De Feoithesdream in the 3.20 Newt. It’s a big of a leap of faith since he has been poor lately but this does look like the best chance he’ll get for a while and he has been subtly ‘not off’ lately by being held-up (needs to bowl on). Sizing Platinum needs better ground, Matorico is a bit piggy, Ut Majeur Aulmes was out of form when last seen and Un Beau Roman is presumably prepping for his next visit to Cheltenham. Feels like a good chance for the horse with the impossible name!
Ramses De Teilee is pretty solid in the 4.20 and I’ll probably have a stake saver to cover my ‘guessy’ selection. I’m looking to take a little chance each-way or three places (Betfair) on Arthur Burrell. You’re taking fitness on trust but he has plenty of course form (including a bumper win) and was quite eyecatching in a couple of his novice hurdle runs. We haven’t seen much of him since but presumably something was amiss last time.
In the 2.30 Stratford, I think we see one of those funny situations on Oddschecker. The initial firms (BFS, Paddys and 365) got it wrong and put up huge ricks on Riverside City and Aunty Ann. It’s probably take until midday for the market to settle down and be somewhere near correct now. In the meantime, I think those two mentioned are well worth betting. I decided to bet the more solid and reliable one and played Aunty Ann at 8/1 for the red-hot Longsdon yard. Could post a career-best on this ground.
In the 3.30 Stratford, I was delighted to be able to snaffle a bit of 16/1 on Desert Sensation. Compared to most of these, he is a classy operator. He is best forgiven his comeback run, where he was weak in the market (probably unfit) and unsuited by quick ground. He gets his conditions here and should go well. 12/1 still good value imo. Souriyan is the danger.
I don’t know anything about amateur jockey William Marshall but I snatched a bit of 4/1 on Classico Dais in the 4.30 Stratford. This horse is in my low-grade tracker. He’s a lovely specimen, a huge raw-boned chasing type who was probably still quite weak when last seen. Dan Skelton is going well at the moment so I expect this horse to be quite fit, not to mention tougher and stronger than he was last year. This is a very weak race and he won’t need to improve much to take it.
Nice wee race that at Newton Abbot tomorrow, and although I’m definitely having a few days off now, I think De Feoithesdream is a good bet as well, good luck with him.
Saver on Rothman in the Desert Sensation race. Yard going so well, handles the ground and some of last year’s chase form looks excellent in the context of this. Also chipping away for small change on the Classico Dais drift on the machine.
A fun day today if not a great one for profit. A few frustrating ones where I annihilated the SP but the horse couldn’t deliver.
Particularly frustrated with De Faoitesdream, who the market suggested would be a trier today. Instead, restrained and raced wide. He’ll slip a bit further down the weights now. One of these days, Adam Wedge is going to unleash the kraken and the old horse is going to destroy some low-graders.
Desert Sensation was a bit of a cheeky bet on my part with the 16/1 I suppose – got a good run for my money though and just run out of third. In truth, the horse looks like one to avoid from now on really, quite a strange way of carrying his head and hard work for the jockey.
Ginge De Sophia was very novicey and looks like one who will need more experience before finding her feet in handicaps. Should’ve just laid the fav! Aunty Ann ran well, no excuses for her.
A couple of my horses go into the notebook for excellent runs in defeat. Classico Dais ran a beautiful race on comeback despite drifting wildly in the market. He gave his young amateur rider a real thrill – hacking around on the outside and looming up before the last before blowing up. He’ll win a handicap before long and looks sure to be even better over fences. One to follow.
Really taken with Arthur Burrell too. He travelled and jumped beautifully before lack of fitness kicked in. If he can string a few good runs together, he’ll have no trouble winning a little race.
In spite of those disappointments, I was 2/2 on Betfair with my little pre- (and indeed mid-) race ‘feel’ bets today. I laid Who Shot Who at 4/7 (Glacial Storm blood on heavy ground rarely much good) and had a little press on Scales after he ran into the back of one on the first circuit at Newton Abbot. I think that was my first in-running winner ever, admittedly not from many attempts. Probably still a point or two down on the day but very happy to undo the worst of the damage.
I also finished a couple of books today. Eleven Kinds Of Loneliness is just perfect for an hour’s commute – those short stories seem exactly the right length for that length of journey. Also whizzed through Zadie Smith’s Martha And Hanwell (also two short stories).
Tuesday bets:
Windy Writer (2.00 Sedgefield) has been an underachiever on my tracker for a long time. I first spotted him tanking along mid-race in a fair fixed brush novices’ hurdle about 18 months ago. He flattered to deceive plenty of times after that but continued to look like a horse with some sort of engine – exactly the kind of animal a good trainer might improve. He has since left Shaun Lycett (not a trainer I rate that highly) and joined Sam England. This is a good switch. England is a shrewd trainer who knows how to get one ready. I took the early 20/1. Daring Knight makes the market as a Skelton switcher but hasn’t shown anything like as much ability. Mathayus is the main danger.
At Southwell, I might get tempted into playing Roman Numeral each-way if he edges towards 10/1 in the morning. Walden Prince ran well last time but doesn’t usually string good runs together. Good old Roman Numeral usually runs his race and should at least run through beaten horses for a place. No bet yet but we’ll see.
Stick To The Plan is a good horse and can defy his penalty in the 4.20 at Southwell. He is only a novice until next month and, with his handicap mark already blown to some extent, there is every reason to expect him to be trying his best out there. The Real Snoopy was hugely flattered last time out and I’m sure the Skelton horse has Ringmoylan and Nemean Lion covered too.
I’ve backed one in the 5.25 at Southwell too. Ver’ hush hush though.
Over at Tipperary, I was on the verge of taking 13/8 on Creation in the first race. Probably shouldn’t be wading in at that sort of price on a hurdling first-timer though. Leaving it alone.
It’s once more unto the breach with Hard Bought 4.55 Tipperary. I backed him last week but he was a morning (mourning?) NR due to a family bereavement. This looks a slightly stronger race but he has a great record fresh and loves a sharp track. Coolbane West probably the main danger.
I tried and tried to find a bet at Dundalk but it’s too hard for me this time.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.