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No doubt the old boy will drift but I’m going to have a little press on good old Occasionally Yours in the last at Southwell. Best to sit on my hands for now but might get 20+ on the machine at some point.
This is a real marshmallow pit of a race and he does have a very good record fresh. Skilled looks plenty short enough, Chilly Miss has doubts at the trip and there are some ropey options among the rest. Alan Blackmore has previous with evergreen old-timers (remember Cool Roxy) and I’m will to take a shot.
Not a fan of the concept of the ‘Justice Payout’ in general but might have to reconsider now I’ve benefited from one!
Poor Bridget. That sort of thing can be career-crushing. Just ask Dave Crosse, Hadden Frost and Sam Thomas.
Gritty stuff today. Lucky to get the old #justice payday on Stick To The Plan, a 3 places win from Saffron Prince, a place from my e/w in that 5.25…plus a few losers. Also slightly ahead from a mixed day of on-the-off and in-running stuff. One more to come at Kempton but only small stakes. Working hard to stand still today.
I’ve got the delights of the all 2yo card at Naas tomorrow, which is an unlikely scene of great betting opportunities. Still, I’ll do my best. To stand any sort of chance against the bent gambles, you at least have to watch the replays on a card like this.
Steady rain due tomorrow, presumably soft.
2.05 – Moltoir is regressive and no cert to handle the ground. Brian’s Bride looks a more solid option – showed early dash last time but still green under pressure. Should do better now. Stormy Tale ran a huge race after blowing the start last time and might be the next best option. Brian’s Bride not missed overnight and unlikely to drift to a price I’m willing to take.
2.35 – Hawaam, Verhoyen, Aurora Eclipse and Hot Stone are probably the four who count here. Hawaam has already been gelded despite showing a piece of smart form. He’s a half-brother to Waady, which might suggest he’ll struggle on soft ground. Aurora Eclipse was a fast and fairly expensive breezer but all of that speed and knowhow couldn’t get her home against a green Blue Uluru. That horse may now be a progressive 93 performer, but it’s a bit A-grade to say Aurora Eclipse is definitely 90ish herself. She has limited scope for progression and probably ran closer to 80 there. Stall 14 not helpful either. I’m willing to give another chance to Verhoyen . He may still be a maiden after seven attempts but he has been unlucky to bump into good eggs like True Blue Moon, Beckford and Undercover Brother. He was poorly placed and never involved in a race here it paid to be handy last time. Cut in the ground suits. I’d take 11/2 but I think this one could be bigger in the morning. Super each-way option with a big chance of getting the win too. Hot Stone is worth watching too – related to Fort Del Oro and showed a glimmer in the first half of the race at Dundalk first time up.
3.10 – Again, the market hasn’t missed the one who leapt off the page for me. Castrogiovanni made a stylish move and looked like the winner before folding up close home last time. That form is strong and he must go well down to 5f with a tonguetie from a good draw. No juice in the price sadly.
3.40 – I’d take Who’s Steph v Minnie Haha if you laid me odds in a match bet but how can you bet on this race? 3 unraced Coolmore bluebloods. ???
4.15 – Bad maiden. Horses with experience set a lowly standard so no surprise if Heroic Seamstress or Hypnotic Force win first time out.
4.45 – Hot little nursery for the grade. Personally would have Scoil Naisiunta a couple of points shorter than the market price. Will probably sit it out rather than bet though.
5.20 – Another trio of Coolmore newcomers (and a well-bred Weld one too!)…who knows?
And a bonus one from the ‘away’ meetings.
3.25 Nottingham – Excellent Times e/w. Ran second in a white-hot nursery last week, caught too far back and looking like the best horse in the race. Should go very very close this time with the brilliant Rachel Richardson up.
After all that work, it looks like I’ll just have two main bets tomorrow!
Only one bet tomorrow. Forth Bridge 3.20 Warwick – taking 4/1.
More of a chasing type than Sceau Royal, gets lumps of weight, Long Dong flying.
Place returns from the two ‘main’ bets today plus small gains from the daily in-play and on-the-off plays. It’s been a while since I’ve had a proper ‘done my bollocks’ day so I feel like one may be around the corner!
Day off tomorrow so will try to spend plenty of time on Friday’s cards. I see good old Dunbrains, two jumps meetings and a nice card at Ascot so there’s every chance I’ll be wading in with half a dozen bets.
No joy from Forth Bridge but a lesson learnt. Sceau Royal might be a little ratty creature but those French-breds are so springy. Forth Bridge has size but that flat pedigree came into play – just a little stiffer and less nimble than the NH horses.
Four bets tomorrow. I didn’t quite have the stamina to dig into Dundalk so it’s just Ascot, Hexham and Fontwell.
3.55 Fontwell – Go Conquer was on my radar last year and is one of my key horses to follow this time around. He is a superb jumper and should be ideally suited by the figure of eight. Fitness first time back is a bit of a worry but a few of Jonjo’s have done surprisingly well first time out – notably Big Penny yesterday. Workbench has won the last three renewals of this race but this feels like a much more competitive year. Just small stakes at 365’s 5/1 given the nagging fitness doubts.
4.30 Fontwell – Velvet Cognac is really interesting here. With Fort Gabriel, Strumble Head and Jack Snipe all in play, there should be lots of pace. The prolific pointer shaped well under tender handling at Hexham last time and should be a trier with first time blinkers on. He was a big market mover before being withdrawn at Plumpton a couple of weeks ago. Taking 28/1 now as it may not last.
4.55 Ascot – Eye Of The Storm is the one to be backing here. Dominating looks thoroughly exposed and has been flattered by a few brilliant rides in recent starts. I’m not totally sold on Altaayil, for all he was eyecatching in a weakish amateurs race last time. Master Singer suddenly has it all to prove and Big Easy’s early price looks a bit muggy, probably just playing off the Hobbs/Williams yard switch. Eye Of The Storm has massive claims here. Since returning to the track, he has been:
Aug 1 – unlucky in running at 1m 2f (much too short)
Aug 19 – bounced?
Sep 2 – Excellent midfield run in good handicap at Chester considering the horse is missing his left eye and effectively couldn’t see where he was going.
Sep 22 – 7/7 but not disgraced against good young handicappers off slow pace at 1m 4f.
Back up to 2m on a right-handed track, dropped to a mark of only 90 (was 103 less than 18 months ago) and against some iffy rivals, this is a huge chance for EOTS. Chunky e/w bet at 10/1 for me.
5.20 Hexham – There’s a whiff of something about Alice’s Man here. Sadly I missed out on the briefly-available 14/1 but got on at a bit shorter. Admittedly he has been tanked (and didn’t look keen) in his last five starts, but those runs have all been without blinkers. He wore them for the best performance of his career so far. With the headgear back on in a dire race (was looking at my old friend The Conn as next best, which says it all) I think a gamble could be afoot.
A few ante-post bets:
Sun Chariot – Usherette 8/1 win-only (towards the top end of my staking)
Irish National – Shanpallas 25/1 e/w
Champion Stakes – Sir John Lavery 33/1 e/wTaking 14/1 Flying Sparkle in the 2yo Trophy and 25/1 Stellar Notion in the Munster Nash. Both e/w.
Cheers Joliff. Ship it, holla!
Could’ve been better if Velvet Cognac had clung on too!
It could be a late night tonight. Dozens of races to scout through and I’ve only just got home.
Coffee lined up, snacks (some of them healthy) on the table – I’ll edit this post and put any bets here.
2.35 Limerick – Haven’t we seen this race a few times already this season? Not A Bad Oul Day has beaten most of these at least once in his incredible year. He has edged up again in the weights, but none of these have been able to lay a glove on him. He won’t have to drift out far in the morning to pick me up as a backer. Anything around 3/1 would get me.
3.45 Limerick – ‘Famous Name progeny in low-grade soft ground handicaps’ is one of my favourite angles at the moment. The latest qualifier is Jock Talk, who makes his debut for Gordon Elliott here. Despite being all about stamina, previous trainers have campaigned the horse over shorter than 1m 4f so far. He can be a bit keen but he has the tidy Gary Halpin aboard and stacks of pace including main danger Foxy Lass. I’m never quite sure when to take a price on Irish racing but I’ll probably wait until the morning.
2.45 Ripon – I love a seller. Miningrocks is the pick on the ratings and does get on well with Ger O’Neill but the young rider is not the greatest pace judge and may get suckered into going too fast with a few other pace angles in this race. Of the other highly-rated horses, Ritasun, Rita’s Man and Maraakib are all regressive. One might have a bit of a residual backclass but I’m willing to take a chance on Leopard each-way. He’s a thorough stayer at this trip, in better heart than most and looks likely to pick up the scraps. He may even improve as he has not been with Tony Coyle for long since leaving the inept Paul Cole. Leopard was better than the result off a slow pace at 1m 3f last time and ran well off a mark of 63 at 7f a few starts back. With pace guaranteed and possibly a slicker performance to come with cheekpieces added, he looks fair value at 16/1 each-way.
3.35 Ascot – Mjjack was given a poor ride when second to Remarkable in a good c&d handicap recently. With Clifford Lee taking over, this looks like a place banker and live runner for the win money. This race could be right for some enterprise with a slew of tricky hold-up horses having to sit and suffer in behind. If Cliff can hold it together and sit prominently without going berserk early, then steal a march inside the two, that would be the plan done to perfection. Another each-way chisel at 12/1.
1.45 Fairyhouse – Tombstone is a shonky favourite (ran like he had a hole in his lungs a few times last year, unproven over fences, not certain to be a trier). But which one is the bet against him: Bamako or Capital Force? The market preferred Capital Force when they both capsized in that crazy race a few weeks ago. With Dr de Bromhead in such fine form, I suppose he is the play. Will play for a token bet now – feels like the price could vanish in the morning.
2.50 Fairyhouse – Meadow Cross is one of few in this field with a sense of ‘unfinished business’. The strapping mare has already had a busy career on the flat and over hurdles, but she has the size to come into her own over fences, especially on a stiff track. Her token efforts in novice/beginners’ events attracted the attention of the stewards and she can be expected to do much more in handicaps. Fairyhouse should suit ideally. The Irish Turf Club have punished Dr Hogan by giving her a higher chase mark than her hurdles rating but I think she’ll be good enough to defy it. Going in each-way at 12/1.
4.00 Fairyhouse – It looks like the Brassil clan will be out for compensation with Artic Pearl. She was an all-rates gamble when fourth two starts ago, travelling like a horse with more ability than this lowly grade but just done by a lack of fitness when it mattered. They’ve given her a prep this time and she should be right there. 6/1 could (and hopefully will) evaporate tomorrow.
1.55 Fontwell – Worth saying that Beautiful People is a horse with an engine – will do well if ever allowed to leave her current stable and race for a proper trainer. No bet though.
2.30 Fontwell – Had a bet here – hush hush one though.
3.40 Fontwell – Purple ‘N’ Gold isn’t usually one to trust but he has had a few of his rare ‘going days’ here and tends to go well at this time of the year. He has been a subtle non-trier a couple of times lately – needs to lead but has been dropped in behind. At his favourite track and with Tom Scu aboard, I’d like to think that he’ll be fired out in front again. Might go bigger tomorrow but I’ll have a token play e/w at 20/1, then maybe one more bite at 25/1 or bigger if available mid-morning.
Well played yesterday again. I’ve been keeping an eye on Velvet Cognac, as the name had obviously caught my attention. He didn’t appeal to me at all yesterday, and that was a a great shout at the price.
I’m more or less sitting today out, and will wait till tomorrow. No strong fancies, but still managed to draw up a shortlist of 15, so makes sense to sit it out, as usually when I have that many, it’s carnage. I’ll have a few small stakes perms for interest, and Not A Bad Oul Day is in there.
A strange day. Artic Pearl was an absolute heartbreaker – my biggest bet of the day. A tight 5/2 on the off, was hacking round and looked likely to win when poor old Roger came off. Just unlucky.
Somehow, it looks like I’m about level. Not A Bad Oul Day was one of the heroes, Accord at Fontwell and some each-way returns from Flying Sparkle. Broke even playing Betfair today. Also another G1 in the bag for the O’Brien record bet, which will be a tidy little payout if/when he can finish it off.
Tomorrow looks tough. I’m already on Stellar Notion in the Munster Nash. Couldn’t fully trade out of Shanpallas so have about 1/4 of a bet still on him too.
Uttoxeter is hard with lots of horses back from breaks and all sorts of funky yard switchers. I did manage to steal a bit of 7/2 about Templeross in the beginners’ chase. Aqua Dude smells like a ‘not-off’, while Allee Bleu and Qualando are unlikely sorts to take to fences. My biggest fears are Solstice Star and Deauville Crystal but I’m happy enough with a good price on a likely trier for a yard in form. Templeross is a scopey type too – should take to this game.
I’m weighing up that 5/2 about Irish Octave in the 5.05 too. It pains me to back a Rosemary Gasson project at that sort of price, but the horse did pull clear with a well-treated Long Dong runner last time and this is a terrible race. Probably will leave it though – I think the self-loathing if it loses would be worse than the joy of a win!
2.05 Kelso – Bohernagore was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time despite the obvious problem of there being five or six other frontrunners in his race. Predictably, he did too much too soon. His previous form with Shrubland continues to look very tidy indeed. There is a potential spoiler here in fellow free-going loon Danceintothelight, but hopefully he can deal with one rival up front more easily than he did with six. The Picture Painter yard switch go feels a bit muggy so perhaps good flat horse Dance Of Fire is the main danger. Having a go at 7/1 Bohernagore.
4.20 Kelso – I detest Simply Ned as a horse but there won’t be many triers in this race and there will be plenty of place to tee it up for him. Long-range Grand Annual plot Double Ws won’t be trying, Just Cameron will need a run and Rock On Rocky looks an unlikely gutbuster too. With Wisty, Just Cameron, Theflyingportrait and Rock On Rocky all in there to ensure a good pace, the old goat Simply Ned does look likely to pick them off. JJM Sports once tweeted (and deleted) that SN “will win” a Champion Chase. Even his most deluded followers must have given up on that dream now. This is traditionally ‘his race’ and now doubt he’ll be cranked up to run for his life.
4.50 Kelso – Rose Dobbin had a winner during the week and has some of her nicest horses running on this card. I think they’re all short enough but her Lady London is well worth a second look here. She’s a PTP winner and well-bred (related to Torduff Express). Her form for the Dobbin yard has been dreadful so far, but significantly Rose Dobbin’s blog mentions that they found ‘nasty old ulcers’ in the horse at the end of the year. With the stable going well (probably), she’s well worth chancing with a clean bill of health at a big price in a weak race.
A bit guessy but also having a small play on Chapel Stile in the last at Kelso. Just noticed it’s in my tracker – with notes saying “needs better ground and longer trip”. Given that the Richards mob have Simply Ned on the card (same colours), this is probably a trier too.
No fun today. A non-runner, a breakdown, crushed the SPs with the other two but couldn’t get the job done.
Aqua Dude was frustrating to see – a fortunate winner you’d have to say.
It should be a quiet day for me tomorrow. Kempton is my meeting and probably all I’ll have time to study.
4.55 – 7f 2yo Novice Auction Stakes
Plenty of interesting newcomers here, especially Trouble And Strife and Augenblick. The Candyman has booked Hollie Doyle for Ortiz, which suggests he knows what we know – the horse didn’t achieve a great deal last time and is going to really struggle under his penalty if any of these have above-average ability. Ortiz a lay if it goes into 10/11 or shorter for any decent money.
5.25 – 6f 2yo Novice Stakes
Not much of a betting race either. Knockout Blow did well to in after blowing the start from a wide draw here last time and looks the type to progress and progress. Well-drawn this time (unlike the promising Society Prince) and looks bang solid. Fleeting Steps obviously interesting if money comes.
5.55 – 6f 2yo Novice Stakes
Buffer Zone probably the one to side with. Shaped well first time, unlucky second time and should be suited by the surface. Villa Savina didn’t win much of a race on debut (lucky to do it). Mzoon and Master Poet interesting if market speaks. No bet again.
6.25 – 1m C5 3yo Handicap
Not much pace on here, so it could be ripe for a bit of enterprise. Choral Clan won’t be suited by a dawdle but is one to note for the coming weeks if he gets tow into a race and his trainer releases the handbrake. Precious Angel ran well in a better race last time and will reap the benefits of racing handily, with the drop in trip also a good move. Probably the pickout at the current prices. Possibly a small stakes bet tomorrow too.
6.55 – 1m 4f C6 Handicap
Some really awkward sorts in this one. Market seems to have it about right with the mildly-progressive Glassalt + SDS rightly sharing favouritism with Moonlight Silver + Kirby.
7.25 – 1m 4f C4 Handicap
Decent race. Golden Birthday needs to win and win well to sneak into the November Handicap. This could be a rare chance to punish SkyBet or one of those firms who do an enhanced price on the ‘How Far’ market. Likely to be driven out for all it’s worth.
7.55 – 7f C5 Handicap
Lots of in-form horses and Exit Europe worth a market check after 2 years off on first run for Sir Mark. Your guess as good as mine.
8.25 – 6f C5 Handicap
A few sexy ones in here but Born To Finish remains on my radar after leaving Jeremy Gask. He looked like he was clicking into gear last time – finding no room when travelling well and finishing with running left. Once more unto the breach, boys. Not much juice in his price overnight.
Just a fair day yesterday but that Ortiz lay was pretty sweet. I think that’s one of the best pieces of advice I’ve been given – if you think the fav is too short – don’t scratch around for something to beat it, just lay!
A bit annoyed with myself for the schoolboy error on Golden Birthday though. Of course he needs three flat runs to qualify for the November Handicap, so I was totally wrong in the winning distance shout – if anything would try to win by the minimum last night.
I had a good look through Newcastle yesterday afternoon. Had a couple of bets at the time but no doubt the prices have changed quite a lot since.
5.25 – Military Parade a dreadful fav and one to oppose here. Not sure which one to take it on with so perhaps just a small lay.
5.55 – Spin Point is potentially a bit of a bent Ian Williams go here. Hasn’t been trying on any start since joining the yard. Blinkers on, back up in trip and with Kingscote booked, it looks worth a small bet on the offchance. BlackType have gone shorter, which suggests they’ve laid something of interest. Otherwise, Champagne Pink feels like a rock solid each-way shout.
6.25 – I prefer Consolida to Vera Drake here, but Frank Spencer had a very poor day yesterday and his confidence could be at an all-time low. Probably best not to bet.
6.55 – Market has this about right with Claramara and Foxy Lady to the fore. No bet.
7.30 – At the prices, I think Fruit Salad and Gamesome are good bets here. I’m already on the Salad but will probably add Gamesome at some point if I get a chance today.
8.00 – Scuzeme very hard to beat if he’s ready to go after a break but I took a bit of 33/1 about Bondi Beach Boy. Well-treated on old form and wouldn’t have liked Chester on soft ground in his comeback run.
8.30 – Again, market vibes probably key to Tiercel. Zymyran and Harlow good alternatives if the Varian horse drifts before the off.
9.00 – Van Velde clocked a pretty tidy speed figure for a maiden last time. It didn’t feel like much of a contest at the time but that does make him interesting in a very poor race here.
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