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Good luck with See The Sun, Chalky. I backed him last time but he ran the same race he has been running all season – engine just cuts out in the final furlong nowadays. Would be nice to see him back in business though.
Poor old See The Sun beat the rest of them by 4 lengths but the all-rates-smash winner was just too strong. Our sprint guru backed See The Sun win-only and was not a happy bunny at all. Fort Bastion ran a nice race too – unlucky to bump into such a good horse in a Redcar seller. I see Tony Coyle paid £19,000 for Candelisa and Fort Bastion went for £10,000. Big numbers for a seller!
Bit of a nothing day for me today. I didn’t have any ‘main bet’ goes and most of my little form pickouts were nowhere near. Ended up laying Valdelobo when it got crazy short and did have a small e/w on Desert Ruler (ouch!) after all. I spewed a few quid on Sky Gypsy when it hit 230 on Betfair just trying to be the hero. I did do a few ‘follow-ins’ on shouts from the guys to keep my head above water. But for a few pennies, it was a breakeven day.
I didn’t have a penny on him but I was delighted to see Sun Cloud win up at Perth today. I love the way he lobs along and picks them off – he actually has quite a deadly turn-of-foot for a horse who stays 4m.
I priced up the back-end of the Newmarket card and had a few bets against my lines.
My big theory with stayers on the flat at the moment is that 3-year-olds have the edge against older horses. See Desert Skyline, Time To Study, Stradivarius etc. In the 4.10, UAE King is the obvious one to tick those boxes but there is no juice in his price. I’m a big fan of Face The Facts, who looks like a relentless galloper. I was shocked to see 12/1 available and quickly availed myself each-way with SkyBet. Note how I put him in 5pts shorter than the other Oddschecker wallahs and now even our price has gone! *pats self on back*. Small e/w saver on Jukebox Jive too.
4.55 – A trappy little race. Interesting to see if the excellent Ian Williams can improve Saunter on his first start since leaving David Menuisier. Torcello pretty solid too. Can’t see myself being drawn out into a bet here.
5.30 – Goodness knows what to expect with Reach High, last seen beating Harry Angel in a 5f maiden about 500 days ago. Now straight up to 1m in a handicap, how on earth do you price it? He’s certainly bred to stay but would you trust Saeed bin Suroor with a horse like this? Ignoring that horse, it’s a strange race with lots of horses who need to be delivered late off a strong pace. I’m talking about Rigoletto, The Warrior, Sun Lover, Bronze Angel and Repercussion especially. There isn’t actually much pace on offer here so I’ve backed Via Serendipity and Night Circus as my two darts. Hopefully they’ll sit handy and be seen to maximum effect.
6.05 – I hate these tactical little 3 runner races. I prefer Brief Visit since he has the best jockey and is the easiest ride – hopefully just winds it up from the front and kicks first. Shimmering Light has the sexiest profile but has been operating in a much lower grade. Turning Gold has a few questions to answer at the moment. Small bet on my one.
I’ll look at the other cards tonight and might have a few more.
Two more.
1.50 Clonmel – I think Doldido is a rock solid e/w bet at 8/1 here. Despite being given a fairly educational ride, he showed a lot on debut – running on well near the finish to close down an established 110 horse. Doldido jumped well and looked a natural. That barely leaves him anything to find with Diego Manchego. One In All In is a bit of a fly in the ointment but I’m not worried about Kildorerry (plenty to find on form) or Churchtown Glen (likely to need the experience).
4.40 Clonmel – Hard Bought catches my eye in a weak race. He has two wins and a second from five starts at Clonmel and a good record when fresh. He won here off a couple of pounds lower in October last year and his trainer turns to the tidy Ambrose McCurtin to knock off a bit of weight. McCurtin has been on a few of his ‘triers’ lately. Jumping can be a problem for Hard Bought (prone to at least one howler per race) but I think there’s more than enough value at 20/1 to let that slide. The bet is on.
Hi,I backed See The Sun EW but chose a fifth the odds for the first five places,I am probably being over cautious trying to keep losing runs as short as possible as I mainly back outsiders.
He will need to run soon to take advantage of his 4lb lower mark as he will go back up again due to Redcar.I will be in Italy next week so will miss him if he runs as I will be offline next week,I will record the Cambridgeshhire and Arc to watch when I return.Keep backing winners.If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Couldn’t resist a bit of 8.00 on Sillogue Pio 3.00 Clonmel. Shaped really nicely last time and must have a good chance to beat a horse as quirky as Successor.
I found that whole race too trappy tbh. Couldn’t put you off a de Bromhead horse right now (yard flying) but it’s too tough for me.
What’s the angle?
Well done with Face The Facts.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Thanks guys, so happy with how it went today. A couple of losers with Night Circus and Via Serendipity (beaten by a reviver – no complaints) and Hard Bought was a non-runner.
Face The Facts did it nicely in the end. It still looks like he has a bit to learn so there is plenty of room for improvement. I might check to see if anyone has put him in the Ascot Gold Cup. I think that entire race will be a strong piece of form. I’m sure UAE King will be a stronger horse next year while Nearly Caught ran an absolute blinder conceding weight and wouldn’t be totally ruled out of the Long Distance Cup. Even Jukebox Jive looks a horse to follow for next year. I think that’s the first ‘Super Ted’ Durcan winner I’ve ever backed. Not a bet that is going to do my SkyBet account’s survival prospects much good though – more than double the SP!
Doldido also very satisfying. I was a bit worried that he’d be fourth as they ran between the last two but he kicked in the turbos on the run to the line. He was keen enough early and can improve. I get the feeling he’ll lure me in at a big price when he steps up in grade.
Good little performance from Brief Visit too. I didn’t have much on but those little top-ups keep you going.
WD with those today, super tipping.
As regards Burndown I had an eye on him a couple of runs ago and thought he would progress more…haven’t watched the race yet but result says no.
On we go. I spent quite a lot of time on the Nayef Stakes and the Joel Stakes today. Both of my picks are based on the assumption (admittedly a risky one) that the ground won’t be as bad as people are saying. From my reading of the weather reports, Newmarket might actually miss tomorrow’s rain altogether. May well be no worse than good-to-soft tomorrow.
With that in mind, I’m backing Mori in the Nayef Stakes. She’s the best horse in the race, isn’t she? I know she bombed out on soft ground last time, but the ground is unlikely to be anything like as desperate here. I approached the race with a bit of prejudice in my heart – “who’s going to beat Mori?” – but none of them have form anywhere near her level.
On a similar line of reasoning, I’ve had a smaller bet on Mustashry in the Joel. Soft ground wouldn’t suit but hopefully he can get away with this. I have a lot of respect for Beat The Bank and don’t have any angle against him per se, but I do love Mustashry. If anything, his win at Chelmsford was even better than his G3. Have you ever seen a horse turn for home practically last at Chelmsford City, go ten wide on the bend and just glide past the whole field? It just isn’t done.
5.55 Worcester – Charlie ‘long dong’ Longsdon is having his annual great September/October and I think his Nightfly is really interesting at 7/1. Pieces of her bumper form would suggest she is better than a 110 horse. Forgiving her three non-handicap hurdles starts (presumably ‘not off’) and her March handicap run (not Longsdon’s best time of year), she still has potential. Looking at her rivals, New Millennium has never done anything special and Inn The Bull is exposed as fairly modest. Medium sized e/w bet.
4.35 – Plenty of dead wood eating up chunks of the market here – Sharps Choice in particular. With plenty of pace on, I’m willing to play Eiri Na Casca for a small each-way. He’s well-in against his chase mark and finishes his races off so strongly. The undulations of Gowran Park will suit much better than Balinrobe, where he worked a miracle to reel back a horse who had stolen first run – all despite ballooning the last.
5.10 – Definitely a race to be betting in with the bang average Pinotage gobbling up so much of the market. I don’t like any of the first five in the betting. I’ve played Broder as the main bet at 12/1. John J Walsh is going well and gets them ready first time while Ambrose McCurtin’s booking suggests this is the first string of his pair. Two of his last three starts were very good – running behind two horses who have subsequently done well from 15lbs higher then just touched off at Punchestown on good ground. The good claimer offsets the residual weight rise and, as a son of Brian Boru, there’s every chance Broder will do better on soft ground. Presumably something amiss when last seen. My second (smaller) dart is Ballymadun – a bit of a guessy one but beautifully bred and hasn’t been ‘off’ yet. Trainer going well and has got a couple ready off a break in the last couple of months.
Losers with Mori, Eiri Na Casca and Broder, small loss after cash-out on Mustashry.
Only e/w gains with Nightfly (heartbreaking gubbage), but a lovely 33/1 winner with Ballymadun to make everything rosy. Turned into a bit of a gamble in the end by the looks of it too!
I’ve had a few bets on tomorrow’s racing already. Will do a post either late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
I’m flying really high at the moment. So much for trying not to give too much back when my ego is buzzing – looks like I’ve staked a Ginger-esque amount of points on Saturday’s racing!
2.05 Haydock – I’m taking a bit of 7/1 about Lord Of The Rock each-way. He loves heavy ground and his latest win looked worthy of a sectional upgrade – the only horse in the first five who didn’t race prominently. King’s Pavillion has been busy enough lately, Century Dream is on a retrieval mission and none of the others are really screaming out to me.
2.15 Gowran Park – I was a little surprised to see such a disparity between Alterno and High School Days in the betting. Neither are bombproof but I think you’ve got to find a bet when Alterno struggles so badly on soft ground. I couldn’t find anything else so I suppose High School Days is the one. Proven on the ground and with some smart form in maiden hurdles (admittedly a bit regressive since the pick of those runs), a mark of 105 (minus DJ McInerney’s valuable claim) has to be workable. I could see this being a “made all, never headed” situation. On at 9/2.
4.20 Ripon – This could become an absolute war in the conditions and I’m looking to follow through my theory of three-year-olds against older horses. Simon Crisford is a flaky trainer and I wouldn’t want to be wading in on Al Zaman at 9/4 in these conditions. Of the 3yos, Breanski and Dream Machine have queries about the trip (both VERY unlikely stayers on pedigree) so I’m willing to play Albert’s Back at a big price. Musselburgh is a horrible front-runner’s track and he had no hope of getting involved from off the pace against a good horse like Time To Study last time. Ripon isn’t great for hold-up tactics either but the soft ground and slight ease in grade can help. I’m going in initially at 16/1 but will top-up at bigger and play the ‘places’ derivs on Betfair tomorrow.
3.55 Market Rasen – Price has fallen through the floor since I backed it but Clonacool feels absolutely textbook at a track he loves in a race he has won before. I like the look of that market support too. Obviously Red Tornado looks a bit piggy nowadays and there is a lot of exposed summer jumping clutter in there.
4.30 Market Rasen – Interesting little race with lots of pace angles. Again, with the totally unconvincing chaser Work In Progress eating up so much of the market, I feel compelled to find something. Most of these are fully exposed and the interesting ones (Itsafreebee and Guitar Pete) have questions to answer after some lethargic runs. I’m going to side with Ballybolley at 10/1. Nigel Twiston-Davies is hot this week and Ballybolley was travelling like a winner two starts ago in one of the best handicap chases run this summer. A pace meltdown would suit his strong-travelling style.
3.40 Chester – It was a very strong (in quality rather than quantity) race that Alexander M won at this track last time. I’m surprised Bahama Moon is favourite given the he won a much weaker race in a lower grade (albeit impressively). This is a weaker event for Alexander M, he has his conditions and ‘Mr Chester’ Franny Norton is aboard. He breaks from a good draw and might be able to dictate again. 7/2 more than fair imo.
6.50 Chelmsford – I’ve backed a horse in this race. Ver’ hush hush.
Also followed in a couple of form shouts on the French races.
Good luck with your bets everyone. Looks like a great day with something for every taste.
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