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Also putting in a cheeky order for a bit of 20/1 Gordon Lord Byron in Ireland today.
You have to take Quiet Reflection on after such an interrupted season. I know he has a bit to find with Cougar Mountain, Downforce and Only Mine at the weights…but the soft ground could just tip the scales a bit further towards the old boy. The big field scenario will give him the chance to get motoring and suit his strong-finishing style too.
Will take a bit shorter if I can’t find a customer.
Sunday was awful for me. I gave back pretty much all of the Take Cover winnings.
Does anyone else feel the same way as me? Some punters chase losses and lose their head when things go wrong, but I think I’m the opposite. My friend Leo calls it ‘Messiah Syndrome’. I feel like I’m most vulnerable when things are going well. I’m having by far the best (and only the third!) winning year of my life but I keep catching myself in this situation. After a good winning day, I get hyped and I get overconfident. Suddenly it feels like there’s a great bet in nearly every race.
It’s a hard habit to break since my whole schtick is that I like to dig out bets in unlikely places – low grade racing and Irish racing especially. How do you find that level of self-awareness to catch yourself when your ego gets out of control but lay the money down when you’ve got a genuinely good bet?
I love talking about the psychology of betting. I don’t think I’ve ever met anyone who has total control of their own emotions. Every day I sit next to genius punters with fat Betfair balances but even they will swear and slam-crunch their knuckles on the desk when their horse gets gubbed on the line or falls at the last.
Anyway, I had a quiet day of it today. I had nice morning with the wife (still sounds incredibly grown-up to say ‘wife’!) and finished reading A Farewell To Arms in the afternoon. Wonderful book. I put a huge amount of work in to watching every replay and studying the form but it’s good to refresh sometimes. When your confidence is a little damaged, it’s nice to get a little boost from something else in your life.
I’ll be looking at Tipperary and Warwick this evening. Hopefully I can get back on the wagon with a few bets.
Tipperary guesses
2.15 – Slightly preferred Hushing to Shinko Princess but not a race to be betting in.
2.50 – Proper toasted marshmallows here. Really ropey stuff. You need to be drawn high over 5f at Tipp but most of the high numbers have major flaws. The market moves will probably mark the card but I think Landline is a better option than most. Generally regressive but does at least handle the ground, is in some sort of form and has a good stall. You’d probably want to see some blue on Oddschecker to get involved though. Sarah Ash Calum also a bit of a fruity one for a gambling yard back at the scene of her best run.
3.20 – Presumably Saracen Knight wins on the strength of the Saxon Warrior form but Spanish Point might improve for a run. Got to sit this one out.
3.55 – Absolute minefield. Blue Petal, Scoil Nasciunta, Triple Sec and Dracula Dave probably the four to concentrate on but I’ve got no clue beyond that. Market helpful!
4.30 – Very lively. You snooze you lose and I missed the fancy prices but took a bit of 12/1 e/w about Feeling Easy, who looks fairly textbook back on soft ground. Tipperary is a bit of a ‘slingshot’ track over 7f so the draw looks good. All sorts of threats with Compass Hill, Enough Is Enough, Hatton Cross, Lomi’s Law, Military Hill and Path Of Silver all holding chances.
5.00 – All depends on how straight the fragile Longing is after time off. I’d guess that she’ll be quite fit to snaffle a maiden win just in case they can’t get her back to the track again – paddocks value etc.
5.30 – Lots of pace on here. Sleepy Head seemed to turn the corner last time and looks quite solid at the top, likewise Admirality after a strong-finishing effort last time. Neither missed by the market though.
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Feeling Easy the only bet so far, might end up backing one in the 2.50 as well but we’ll see.
Hi Soldier, some interesting observations there. I am very much a low stakes, low risk kind of gambler who often just has a small lucky 15 a few times a week, or a few patents or singles if the mood takes me. Saturday of course is my busiest day with all of the better racing on, and without checking my statistics I’m pretty sure the most success i have is on this day, probably no coincidence that the quality of racing is much better. My best result ever was when I backed all of Ryan Moore’s mounts one Saturday at one of the big meetings (can’t remember which) but he had a four timer. This was a bit of a ‘chancer’ kind of bets where I backed the horses blind just because he rode them; which is a bit ironic as I usually spend quite some time dissecting the form book when betting on horses. However, coming to my point, after having success on Saturday I like you am keen to try and continue the run into Sunday, and this is by far my worst day in recent times. There’s typically a lower standard in the UK but better in Ireland, but after having good results the prior day I feel a bit ‘invincible’ and try to back everything I like which usually ends in disaster. This is probably because i don’t have a great handle on Irish form and the domestic racing is usually of a poorer standard. This then prompts me to have a few days off and the feeling of “why did I just do that?’ giving away all of my winnings, so I give it a break midweek but ready to go again on Friday or Saturday. It’s a curious weekly occurrence that happens to me quite often enough to beg the question why do i bet on Sundays, but as you say you do try and carry on the good form. There’s been a few articles in the RP recently on pro-punters “golden rules”, often to be selective, stick to what you’re good at, etc., but it can be a hard thing to follow if you lack the discipline or often in my case, can get a bit bored and decide to have a crack at a certain meeting. Ah the vagaries of betting!
Over at Warwick, I think Blair’s Cove is a favourite to take on in the 1.50.
Ex-pointer Cap Du Nord looks like the interesting one at a tasty price. With Denis O’Regan (now based in Ireland) called over for the ride, there’s every chance the horse will be trying. Related to Qualando and Au Quart Du Tour, it’s no surprise that this one failed to last home in a couple of PTPs. He’s by good ground sire Voix Du Nord, which increases the appeal with no rain due. A little guessy but worth a bet at 20/1. Continuation of front-running tactics will also suit with Warwick’s famous pace bias.
2.25 – Not many in-form horses here so hat-trick seeker Dotties Dilemma is quite solid by default. I think the market is a bit muddled with the Tim Vaughan runners (Alan Johns is his stable jockey, Johnson by no means sure to be on the first string). The stable does well with horses first time out and I wonder if Time And Again will reprise that excellent run behind What’s Up Rory. Interesting to watch the market.
2.55 – Hard to dig out anything solid against the Skelton jolly.
3.30 – Decent little chase. Fort Worth traditionally not very easy to win with so no gimme to back up the latest win. Trappy stuff even so and hard to find the bet. Belmount goes well at this time of the year and Charlie ‘long dong’ Longsdon is having his usual September/October hot streak so Kilfinichen Bay isn’t discounted either. Still, Sonneofpresenting is a fairly nice progressive young chaser. Just a race to watch and enjoy I think.
4.05 – A dire handicap hurdle. I think Distant High is going to get me for a small bet at a big price. She has been shaping a bit better than the result in recent hurdles runs and might get the strong pace she needs in a field of this size. There are no monsters under the bed in this field unless the Hobbs duckeggs project comes good. Her hurdling technique is a bit of a worry about I’d like to see Ben Poste sit fairly prominent.
4.35 – Inconsistent chasers, your guess as good as mine.
Good points Joliff. I guess that is part of it. We all know most of the horses who are running in the good handicaps on Saturday inside-out.
You’ve got to watch a lot of videos to know the low-graders like that, plus you need to have a good feel for the stunts certain trainers like to pull at that level. I’ve had this debate over and over at work. Some of my colleagues just laugh at me when I say I’ve spent hours doing form study for an Irish card or a midweek all-weather meeting. While the market is vital at the lower levels (no worse feeling than backing something overnight that goes off 10pts bigger in a C6!) I don’t think it is everything.
Hugh Taylor makes good money on straight form pickouts at the basement level, likewise the excellent Rhys Williams on Twitter and legendary TRFer Mr Han. It can be done. Sadly, I think the reality is that you need both elements with around half of your bets. I think you have to do your form study the night before and there are pure form bets to be had. But you’ve also got to note the potential live ones if they’re “will back if any money” type bets and then keep your eye on the movers on the day. I’m not afraid to take a point or two under the initial price if it feels like the market is saying it’s a confirmed ‘trier’.
I had a horse once with Tim Vaughan, he is an infectious character and a real pleasure to be around but it’s still sometimes a bit of a mystery if his horses will run well or not. A few years back he was considered a summer jumps trainer, getting horses into winning streaks in quick succession etc., and some handicap blots, then selling on but nowadays he seems to have a different approach, buying in more younger horses. It’s interesting you mention Alan Johns is his stable jockey – true in some aspects as he invariably rides most for him, but Richard Johnson will always have first choice when available so I wouldn’t let that put you off. This horse in particular, Time and Again, isn’t one I’d want to be on, nor is Ronnie Lawson really, considering his recent form. I’m not sure of his statistics but I’m not sure he does too well with horses after such a long break, although I agree he is adept at placing horses first time out. A difficult one. Probably a race to swerve if you ask me. Later on in the card I’d want to be on Belmount after a break, this is Twiston-Davies’s time of year typically and he’s well handicapped off 126. He rates a good bet to me at 4/1.
I have also tried Cap du Nord EW due to nice breeding, and Shantou Tiger (got a visor on) and Rebel Yeats (got weight off) win only.
I struggled a bit to get through A Farewell to Arms but I liked For Whom the Bell Tolls and The Old Man and the Sea.
I think Tim Vaughan was the Dan Skelton of 2006 – taking horses from other yards and improving them to win 2 or 3 races in the summer. Like you say, Joliff, he seems to be trying to distance himself from that now.
He was buzzing about Debece last season because he is the first of the well-bred young store horses that the stable want to focus on from now on. Still, I rate Vaughan especially dangerous with horses first time back from a break. They always seem absolutely wired. If he can’t get a handicapper to win first time back, I pretty much forget them after that.
A Farewell To Arms is the first Hemingway I’ve read, Grassy. Maybe you did better not to finish it because the sad ending comes out of nowhere and really gets you! I’m going to start Eleven Kinds Of Loneliness today. Short stories fit nicely with my commute. I enjoyed Revolutionary Road so I think I’m on safe ground with more Richard Yates.
Ei ei boys, we’re back in business. 12/1 and 16/1 winners at Tipperary with Landline and Feeling Easy. Gave a bit back with Distant High and Cap Du Nord but not to worry.
Grassy, I’m so happy Rebel Yeats got up for you – you must have been so salty after that Shantou Tiger incident.
Well done Joliff with Belmount too. I think he might have had got there even if poor old Fort Worth hadn’t come down. How were you feeling in-running? I had someone in my ear telling me to get on as well but sat it out.
Thanks Soldier, I’m at the NEC today so didn’t get to watch the race unfortunately so was oblivious to what happened! Still feel 4/1 was a big price for a capable horse who is proven at that sort of rating. Well done to you and Grass with the wins, an excellent tipping day for this thread!
Well played today Guys, excellent stuff
I threw a small bet at Buachaill Alain today, and will hopefully recoup that in next months Durham National, where I’m hoping a dramatic change in tactics make the difference.
Hopefully also a dramatic change in attitude from that one if he gets ridden forward, Bobby. He did not look like a happy bunny today.
To be honest, I don’t think Buachaill was putting it Alain out there.
lol, yes, ridden forward will be the key, as he was for his last 2 wins.
He’s never that interested anyway, but he surely won’t be as surly as he was today
I’ve got the short straw tomorrow with a 5am wake-up call and that absolutely ridiculous Redcar card. Several 20+ runner races and nothing above a C5.
2.00 – A minefield sprint nursery. Ray Purchase is the solid horse with form in these events already but there are any number of handicap newcomers who could shake things up. I thought Rema Al Kuwait and Magic Ship were the most interesting ones, especially Magic Ship. I don’t like betting in these races but I’m not ruling it out in the morning. Ollie Pears has landed a few touches in nurseries in the last couple of seasons and this well-bred Kodiac colt has been running well in fairly decent maidens, usually sticking on like a horse who wants a big field and an extra furlong to draw out his best assets. A stab in the dark admittedly but I might have a small play each-way if I can get 16/1 tomorrow.
2.30 – Often an informative nursery that usually throws up a lot of winners. I understand the ground is drying at Redcar so I’ll have to forsake Milan Reef this time. Dream Of Delphi is rock solid on form and figures so it’s hard to be too bullish about anything else. Saying that, I did think Racing Radio was quite interesting. He has a mixed pedigree but does shape like one who could improve for the trip. Enthusiasm is slightly tempered by the fact that he has already run in a seller and therefore probably isn’t very well regarded at home. I’ve just bet the fav small at 4/1 so far but would play Racing Radio e/w if it crept out beyond 20/1 tomorrow.
3.00 – Al Hajar has a tall reputation but has fluffed his lines twice now. In hindsight, the debut second to Anna Nerium looks like good form but he was all over the shop second time up. A few FTO eyecatchers in there against him but just a race to watch I think.
3.35 – Valdelobo doesn’t set a great standard so no surprise if one of the newcomers is good enough. The Godolphin one would be the most likely but I’m surprised to see Angel Carlotta so big with such a beautiful pedigree for a Redcar maiden. Nigel Tinkler isn’t really known for FTO winners though.
4.10 – David Brown is on the cold list, but isn’t Sky Gypsy way too big here? She beat (or ‘beat’) high 70s horses in a maiden last year before being disqualified for failing a drugs test. In theory, that drug would have hindered her performance rather than enhanced it. At the time, there was talk of aiming for the Flying Childers! She has only had one run since – a perfectly respectable midfield finish at Southwell. With that under her belt a month on, shouldn’t she go well off just 65? Lovely draw in stall 2 as well. I’ll chance it at 33/1, thank you.
4.40 – The seller should go to Candelisa but you always wonder with these horses – why are you putting a perfectly good handicapper in a seller? Will leave it alone.
5.15 – I think Desert Ruler is more solid than most but don’t feel strongly enough to bet.
5.45 – Fairly interested in good old Space War here. He has been better than the result in his last two runs – missed the break two starts ago and not suited by trying to come behind against the Chelmsford pace bias last time. He’s on a good mark at the moment. Admittedly he’ll need the ground to keep drying but the big field situation is exactly what he needs at this trip – loves to pass horses and always a strong finisher. Small bet e/w.
Ei ei boys, we’re back in business. 12/1 and 16/1 winners at Tipperary with Landline and Feeling Easy.
Well, boys and girls…as Emily Howard would say, I’m a lady
Two great winners LS, bet this punting lark is feeling easy for you!
Cap du Nord didn’t do badly just gave his hurdles a bit too much air. I might bet him again at some stage.I feel a bit sorry for Shantou Tiger’s jockey although perhaps he should have anticipated the horse changing legs on the tightest part of the bend. Poor chap will probably find a tube of superglue sitting on his saddle next time he goes in the weighing room. Judge wants to know why anyone would bet small stakes…that’s why!
Happy with Rebel Yeats and going to watch out for the rest of her sire’s offspring including Rose Tree at Perth, though I have no bets today.
Good luck with that jungle of a Redcar card
Hi,very well done having 2 big price winners on the same card.In the 4.10 at Redcar I thought See The Sun was becoming well handicapped,but I have noticed he will be 4lb lower in future so maybe next time out will be the day.I agree with you about Sky Gypsys mark so good luck there.In the seller I think Fort Bastion is a danger to the favourite,but a no bet race.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
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