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With top Euro milers not making the trip, this renewal is arguably the most wide open in recent memory. However, slight nod to Space Blues based on his last performance. Blowout could be tough if given an uncontested lead…
Most people link Dubai’s riches to oil. Far from it. About 90% (or more) of Dubai’s income is generated from non-oil related activities. Oil is in Abu Dhabi, which is a separate emirate.
Agree, GT. However, S. Bin Suroor is probably the “only” trainer who “has to” say pleasantries as he’s based in Dubai. All the rest, whether in America, Australia, or Europe, have a choice but instead they “choose” to toe the line. Money is the great equalizer. I have zero, and I mean ZERO, respect for such people. They could make the difference by taking a stand on the side of what’s right, but consciously choose not to…Sad, really.
No English horse had won this prestigious race since Migoli in 1948.
That’s a true statement, given that Mill Reef wasn’t an “English” horse, only English-trained. He was American bred and owned by Paul Mellon.
BTW, I very much enjoyed your piece…
Have anyone of Adayar, Alenquer, Snowfall, or Tarnawa ever raced beyond 12F with any degree of success?
If the ground is rated as “heavy”, then stamina may be a major determinant here and should favor Hurricane Lane more than any other runner; i.e. it may take a 14F-16F horse to with this 12F race.France Galop said in a statement on Saturday evening: “The filly Love has been declared non-runner with a vet’s certificate after she developed a temperature during Saturday afternoon.”
“I think befair can’t get over his Irish Nationalism.
For some, anything a British person says about any Irishman is taken the worst possible way.” – GingertipsterAdmin,
The above noted comment by Gingertipster on this thread is a clear example of blatant racism and bigotry, and should not be tolerated on this Forum (or anywhere else). What is your Policy towards racism? Please advise so the participants can behave accordingly…
IanDavies,
Where are you now with your eye-pleasing “challenge to anything” belief?
“If there is one undercurrent I detect…it is blind deference and a complete refusal to challenge anything”
To the ones that read the referenced comment without saying anything, shame on you!
However, Empowerer, if you don’t already know what modules need to be included and how the content should be structured are you really sure you are the right person for the job?
BINGO!!!!
Gingertipster, please understand that’s it’s very difficult for me to continue to engage in debate with people who think they’re open-minded when I know that they have a hole in their head….
Really? After nearly 28,000 posts you come up with this cracker? Do you think bookies, casinos, and race tracks are charities where they design games, including horse/sports betting, offering odds with outcomes having POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUES? How long would they last in business?
Let’s test your model and take a look at a real, live example of sports odds (and EV) offered by a certain bookie on the outcome of one of the featured football matches today: West Ham vs ManU
Outcome Odds Implied Probability
WH 4.50 22.22%
Draw 4.00 25.00%
ManU 1.72 58.14%Without needing to calculate the EV one can glance at the total implied probability (105.36%) and quickly realize that this proposition is “unfair”, hence it has negative Expected Value. But, let’s go through the exercise, assuming a wager of 10:
EV = (7.20 x 0.5814) – (10 x 0.4722) = -0.53
That is, over time a punter would lose on average 53p for every stake of 10.
This is TRUE WITH EVERY BOOKIE, EVERY CASINO, AND EVERY RACE TRACK PROPOSING ODDS ON EVERY GAME, SPORTS OR OTHERWISE, OR HORSE RACES!!!
Unless, of course, you know a “Santa Claus” that poses as a bookie? Let us know, please.
Racing coverage in the UK, and in some of the other racing jurisdictions, is not designed for, or presented to, the viewer where their viewing interests take priority. It is mostly designed around the presenters, where they take center stage: not the horses, or you, as part of a viewing public.
If anyone cares to see how racing coverage should be presented, then take a look at coverage from Hong Kong. It’s second to none! It’s ALL about the horses where you rarely see any presenters, other than “Jenny” walking around the parade ring with the horses and describing each and every runner’s physical condition with remarkable detail…
Good call, FF. He could be a factor in the BC Turf, provided the connections choose that route. But, I just don’t like the extremely tight turns at Del Mar’s turf course.
GingerT, I do appreciate you point of view and I have no desire to offend, or be disrespectful to, anyone. However, are you at all familiar with a statistical concept named the “gambler’s ruin”? If you are not, then perhaps look it up and you will learn why the reference is made to Bill Gates. I also appreciate that you’re a numbers guy/(gal)? but sometimes you need to read between the lines.
Moreover, you will get a clear and statistically proven answer to your earlier question:
(When it is possible for the bookmaker to work races out like this, why is it impossible for the punter?)
Lastly, my final point on this issue, I did not change my mind whatsoever; the two statements are congruent. Let’s move on …
I don’t disagree with your comments above, Gingertipster. However, my original post is arguably a derivative of the statistical concept called “gambler’s ruin” and, to some extent, the “gambler’s fallacy”. Taken together, they would explain why statistically it’s highly improbable for someone to “beat the races” over the long-term (unless one has the bankroll of someone like Bill Gates!).
