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Where to specialize?

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Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 93 total)
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  • #1560931
    Salut A Toi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 107

    Most of us can probably identify plenty of winners but making a profit from doing that is another matter entirely“.

    It is entirely the same matter once realising what the word “plenty” should mean in this context. The word “plenty” should be a different number for each punter depending on their average priced winner. ie When it comes to making a profit the number of winners/strike rate alone is not the important thing.

    Your explanation is expanding on the point I was attempting to make in the quoted sentence. That is, that most of the factors that are important in winning horse races are well established and fairly easily learnt. But that alone does not make you a successful punter unless you can also strike your bets at bigger odds (on average) than your strike rate (on average), which to my mind has become more difficult over the years to the extent that I don’t really bother anymore but respect to anyone that does.

    #1560932
    Salut A Toi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 107

    The way to specialize is easy to understand but less easy to do. You have to really follow the sport and most closely a subsection of it. And you don’t bet all the time. You have to love what you are watching

    Turning a small profit is perhaps more likely to happen if it’s an objective but hardly a necessity
    Cash pressure leads to bad decision making

    Why branch out into an area that you haven’t (I assume) already had a strong interest in? And why if successful elsewhere?

    Wise words indeed clivexx couldn’t agree more.

    #1560941
    Turkoman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28

    Really? After nearly 28,000 posts you come up with this cracker? Do you think bookies, casinos, and race tracks are charities where they design games, including horse/sports betting, offering odds with outcomes having POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUES? How long would they last in business?

    Let’s test your model and take a look at a real, live example of sports odds (and EV) offered by a certain bookie on the outcome of one of the featured football matches today: West Ham vs ManU

    Outcome Odds Implied Probability
    WH 4.50 22.22%
    Draw 4.00 25.00%
    ManU 1.72 58.14%

    Without needing to calculate the EV one can glance at the total implied probability (105.36%) and quickly realize that this proposition is “unfair”, hence it has negative Expected Value. But, let’s go through the exercise, assuming a wager of 10:

    EV = (7.20 x 0.5814) – (10 x 0.4722) = -0.53

    That is, over time a punter would lose on average 53p for every stake of 10.

    This is TRUE WITH EVERY BOOKIE, EVERY CASINO, AND EVERY RACE TRACK PROPOSING ODDS ON EVERY GAME, SPORTS OR OTHERWISE, OR HORSE RACES!!!

    Unless, of course, you know a “Santa Claus” that poses as a bookie? Let us know, please.

    #1560947
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5407

    Turkoman,

    All you have outlined above is the bookmakers’ theoretical 5.36% profit margin if all three outcomes were level-staked at those odds: the good old Overround, which is what you’ve christened ‘negative expected value’

    It tells you nothing about the ‘true chance’ of each outcome, which is upto the punter to assess. One might think that WH should be 3.50, so will back that at 4.50 and that ManU should be 1.9 so would be happy to lay that at 1.72

    The ‘true chance’ of all possible outcomes in random events such as dice-rolling, coin-tossing and roulette are known in advance so there is no edge to exploit for either bettor or layer: zero sum events

    The ‘true chance’ of sports-betting outcomes are not known in advance; hence can only be opinion, and it matters not one jot if a bookmaker lays a book at 150% overround if amongst all the outcomes summing to that 150% there’s one which in the bettor’s opinion is overlaid, or as Ginger would have it: is ‘value’

    Excellent posts Clivexxxx

    #1560968
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1403

    Thanks drone and salut

    I think people might be better off looking at the form and vast array of relevant factors rather than just drilling down the maths time and again

    #1560975
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27776

    Wondered whether that’s what you may have been alluding to, Salut. :good:

    value is everything
    #1560977
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27776

    Turkoman,
    Drone has saved me the job, he’s explained better than I could so won’t go over old ground. Suggest you study it well. :rose:

    value is everything
    #1560989
    Turkoman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28

    Gingertipster, please understand that’s it’s very difficult for me to continue to engage in debate with people who think they’re open-minded when I know that they have a hole in their head….

    #1560996
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27776

    Oh Turkoman, thought you might want to end it there – without conceding. Rest assured I am open minded, but however much someone is open minded the fact remains 2 + 2 still = 4. Can see little point in continuing this part of the debate anyway as (with the help of Done) the point is proven – at least to all those who are truly “open minded“. ;-)

    value is everything
    #1560997
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25160

    Value is everything
    ginger is still waiting on the buy one get one free offer on the fish and chips he still owes me.. :yes:

    Self discipline is the key to betting. Plenty can find value but not many can wait for it

    Member since March 2008
    #1560998
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27776

    Patience is a value, Nathan. ;-)

    One day – am not saying what day or year – I’ll get to Taunton Racecourse.

    Do they do fish and chips there? :rose:

    value is everything
    #1561000
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1403

    Drone is right and you are talking crap Turk

    There are so many potential edges in racing (fear more than other sports) and zero edges in Casinos

    The massive appeal of racing is that the factors are extremely hard to weigh up perfectly.

    Casinos? A monkey has exactlythe same chance as a someone who’s been to casinos all their life

    Racing? No

    If you dont get that (and its hardly difficult) then you are in the wrong game

    #1561001
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1403

    To be fair I have heard that the number 5 on dice has been dropped in class, operates much better on a certain green baize, responds well to a particular.. tosser and runs into form in the spring.

    Mind you ive heard rumours that the 4 is out of condition and tends to duck coming out on top and lacks the stamina to cope with more than ten throws in an evening

    The 3 number is said not to travel well and you have to calculate how far the dice has moved from the cupboard to the baize. Also certain casinos have a much better strike rate at certain times of the year which is apparently dictated to by the air conditioning

    #1561002
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6435

    This is a truly fascinating thread.
    The OP has yet to verify a single fact he has stated.
    What field of sport does he specialise in?
    He seems to know as much if not more about racing (than sport) than he is letting on.
    Whilst not wanting to sound too cynical there have been dozens of threads started on this forum by people ultimately spamming and weaving mischief.
    But one thing it has done is stimulate healthy debate and contentious argument.
    The OP offered very little in facts and yet forumites have fallen over themselves to offer help and useful advice and little pearls of wisdom.
    I’ve certainly benefitted from the thread as I am said hapless “mug punter” with no hope of ever profiting from this game.

    #1561012
    Richard88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 513

    I’m struggling to see what’s so difficult here. Most people who bet on horses/sports are somewhere on the scale of recreational punter to addicted gamblers. The vast majority of these people will lose because they either can’t or won’t put the time in required to beat the odds (which evidently can be done or pro gamblers wouldn’t exist). Just because bookies win overall, doesn’t mean that everyone is losing. The losses of the masses outweigh the profits taken by the few.

    I would add that many are happy with these losses for the sake of an afternoon’s entertainment in the same way that someone else might be happy with the ‘loss’ of money they experience when buying a theatre ticket for example. For the record I used to be a losing punter, I now neither win nor lose because I packed it in.

    The only way to win in a casino is card counting in blackjack. Guess what happens when they see you doing that…

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