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imo GSP, jockeyship is perhaps the least important or at least the aspect of form most over-rated by punters. Not that it doesn’t matter if a jockey gives a horse a good or bad ride. It’s just most jockeys seem to have a similar chance of giving the horse a good or bad ride.
However, I’d look out for:
Good claimers – particularly 7 lb claimers. I’ll add a pound, or 2 or 3 lbs to the horse’s rating and /or include a bit for consistency in the percentage / odds I’d back the horse at.
Same for…
I do look at the Timeform expectation stats for jockeys.
Identifying Jockeys particularly good on prominent runners if that’s what I expect the horse to do.
Ditto those mid-div or held up.
…Or what I consider a particularly good overall jockey.
…A horse that has a good jockey for the first time or first time on the horse since it last ran well.
…Or a jockey that goes particularly well with a certain jockey (whether that’s a supposedly good one or not).
…Or a jockey that has a better strike rate at a course than I’d expect.…But a punter does not need to look up every jockey’s record for every 100% book he/she is working out. Only looking occasionally is enough because once you know a jockeys profile you know. ie Unless it’s an inexperienced jockey I suspect those stats rarely change significantly during a season.
Value Is EverythingTotally agree with that.it’s a factor but overrated. Agree about pace setting jockeys too but would add some jocks are seemingly pitch perfect at certain courses. Frankie ascot is one example but again those instances are pretty few and far between
This continues to be an interesting thread and surely it must have demonstrated to the original poster that his attempts to diversify into horse race betting are not going to be easy (not that he said it would be of course).
I’m a glass half empty sort of character (probably three quarters empty most days TBH) whereas Gingertipster lays out a convincing case for looking at it from a glass half full perspective but I can’t get away from the fact that given that there seems to be football matches to bet on 24 hours a day 7 days a week and no shortage of on line poker action that the OP is likely to have more success sticking to them , given that he already has a profitable strategy in those spheres.
Hopefully he will keep us posted on his progress one way or another.
Be interesting that Salut A Toi, some people can be pretty vocal when things are going well and their way, and as quiet as a mouse when they are not they ‘go missing’.
“In these pages, you will discover that horse-race betting takes as much skill and application as the most demanding job you could imagine.”
From the opening to Nick Mordin’s ‘Betting For A Living’
May seem as though there is too much to think about; but after a while these things come naturally, don’t really need to think.
Value Is EverythingThe Investor, the last/never thing to do is spend hours & hours searching for a raw/mythic new edge. The answer to this is to “piggy back” on trusted data/info …such as race relevant class & speed rating. I suggest creating Horse Profiles giving details of their optimum race exams conditions. And wait… … …
Also study Trainers methods… they are the KING/QUEEN PINs!
Science is all about measuring
Mathematics is all about measuring
Making Horse racing profits is ….And keep it real (5 to 10% ROI) is top class betting.
D21
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