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I think the mistake you made in your analysis Investor, was that the winner being by some way the likeliest front runner… Likely to get an uncontested lead and therefore have an advantage in the sprint for home. Horses are also pack animals in the wild and some of those traits persist in racehorses. ie Some are natural leaders, some like being in the pack and others natural followers. Only a minority of racehorses like to lead and these have an advantage in slowly or steadily run races. Also… because these horses don’t like being surrounded, once headed they can fall back very quickly particularly in a larger field. So – when looking at a horse’s form – races where the horse either isn’t allowed or can’t dominate can be easier to excuse.
Value Is Everything“I was possibly a little too harsh with my chances on that horse.”
Given (a) his previous run was, as you say, his first run of the year (and most of the others had had several), (b) he was prominent in that race until headed 2f out and weakening a furlong out (and on Saturday was being dropped in trip), and (c) he was dropping into a less valuable race where the field was, on average, rated 9lb lower than that of his first race, I’d agree with you.
Some good advice on this thread.
To turn things around if I may, could I ask you why you feel the need to diversify. You have a successful method on in running football , there’s no shortage of football matches to bet on so why not just keep doing that.
I think most (realistic) posters on here will agree that making regular consistent worthwhile profits on UK horse racing is extremely hard work and you might be better off not getting involved (as I wish someone had said to me 35 years ago).
First of all Investor welcome to TRF.
You will find many & varied views here and hopefully one or two gold nuggets you believe will be of use to yourself.
Let me say two things which you may like to consider before taking up horse racing as a betting medium.
…..believe nothing you hear and only half you see……ie always make up your own mind!
A simple fact I came across many many years ago stated that 75% of races were won by 25% of the horses.Now I have no way of knowing,except perhaps for some very exhaustive research,if this still holds true but I suspect it’s not far out.So you need to latch onto that 25%.
I first noticed this thread a day or two after it was posted and decided I should take my time to consider a response.In the initial post you suggest various ways you might like to try.What you must always remember is the effort one puts in must bear fruit and that this is a not a simple game but a highly intellectual pursuit,complex in it’s many ways & variables and to turn a profit is a long term aim.
I could tell you to read books on the subject but have found in my own experience that many are over complicated leaving the reader somewhat baffled and unsure.However,and perhaps you have heard of him,I would say read Clive Holt’s books published under the Fineform banner if you are able to find copies.They are
BE A SUCCESSFUL PUNTER & WINNERS BACK WINNERS.
I know corny titles to say the least but what’s advanced in them is a simple method which points one toward the better horses in any particular race.The first book is the basis for the second so one needs to read both in order to get a proper prospective of the overall picture.I must stress here that these books are NOT a way to ‘get rich quick’ and require the reader to put in the time & effort to get the best results.
As far as I’m aware Fineform closed down on Clive Holt’s passing so it’s a matter of hunting down second hand copies if you can find them.
Now allow me to directly address the question that’s the purpose of this thread…where to specialize?
In assessing a race we are looking for not only the best horse but the one most likely to produce it’s optimum performance over the trip and underfoot conditions.In order to provide profits one needs a regular turnover of the betting bank and for that one’s returns need reasonable consistency.Sorry to state the blindingly obvious but it means where you find the most winners which is among the better horses,it would be your own decision how far down the class scale one ventures.Many years ago I conducted a piece of research,now unfortunately lost when ‘RaceCaller’ was closed down,to basically see if an idea I had thought of when pondering this very subject could be made to work?
The simple answer turned out yes ….but I made a drastic error which I persisted with,due to my own stubborn attitude,that I could only use it in sprints.The lesson I’ve learned is that in order to be successful at this the name of the game is to be flexible in your approach by not making your focus too narrow thus giving yourself the best opportunity of being a success.
I know I’ve waffled on a bit but hope this helps however little.
good luck to allIt’s absolutely precious that some fella asks how to specialize and become a pro in horse gambling, and gets people falling over themselves to help him, and another fella asks about making an online course for horse betting and gets the cold shoulder.
I absolutely despair.
The different responses have been puzzling me too FiftyP. In both cases I’d have thought it would be OK to share fairly generic information, but I can’t see why you would want to share anything that gave you an edge unless you were happy to lose that edge.
Am not criticising anyone who has kindly shared their views by the way. My comment is more querying why one of the posters has been responded to rather more warmly than the other!
It’s totally puzzling, Marlingford. I don’t know what the person plans on charging, and shame on him if it’s one of those, “Follow these tips to win!” scam books/hotlines/video series, but there’s a huge amount to horse racing that’s puzzling. I don’t know what every detail means in the form guides and I often find myself googling them.
Any time I start looking at a new sport, which happens a few times a year, I look for a guide to get me up to speed. Some of the bookies have guides trying to demystify the sport. I don’t see why someone looking for youtube followers or five quid on fivrr.com is abhorrent while someone looking to go pro as a gambler is helped.
Hi The Investor.
Professional gambler, so do you actually make a living on football and poker? Is this a full time job for you, or just contributes towards a few bills?I see horse races as puzzles, with a number of variables that need to be worked out. Even then, no one knows how the race will pan out with bumping going on, dwelt at the start, ‘never going well’, distance too short as just some of the ‘excuses’ given afterwards by connections.
I didn’t realise how important it was until a number of years ago how certain horses like only heavy or good to firm going. These can improve or hamper a horse 20 to 30 lengths on previous runs.
The introduction of All Weather has added another conundrum where a number of horses run on both surfaces and these have a preference to just one of these, something to look out for.
My advice would be CAUTION.
Don’t see this as a second or even first income.
Gambling should only be done as fun, extra money you don’t mind losing.Even on TV you get pundits getting the praise if they choose a winner before the race.
But I can assure you the silence is deafening when they can’t back a winner for days, and you don’t hear them.This goes for the large majority of people.
This (excellent) interview in three parts has some info on specialising along with other nuggets
https://theracingforum.co.uk/forums/topic/mark-holder-revisited/#post-1560610
Investor, there’s an old adage in horse racing: “You can beat a race, but you can’t beat the races.” If anyone ever tells you otherwise, they’re lying to your face…
“You can beat a race, but you can’t beat the races.”
(Look away now all those who understand odds).
Ah yes Turkoman, that “old adage” put about by anti-gambling people / media.
You only need to understand how bookmakers work to know that adage is a lie.Please remember that the difference between sports gambling and other forms of gambling is nobody actually knows for sure the chance of each (in this case) horse. No punter knows, but just as importantly no bookmaker knows either. It’s only opinion.
The bookmaker’s first show is formed by his odds-compiler. The odds compiler works out what he believes to be the percentage chance of each horse in the race and then the bookmaker adds his mark up.
So in a 4 horse race if (a big IF) the odds-compiler believes all have the same chance of winning then each horse is believed to have a fair 25% chance (because 4 x 25% = 100%). “Fair” because @ 3/1 a punter having the same stake on all 4 horses would result in breaking even whoever wins. Therefore the Bookmaker then adds his mark up, so instead of offering 3/1 he offers (in a competitive market) 11/4 for all horses… However, this is only the odd’s compiler’s opinion of each horse. A punter may believe the chances of the horse are: A 30%, B 20%, C 25% and D 25%. Obviously, if a punter wins 30% of his/her 11/4 bets then a profit is made on those 11/4 bets and therefore 11/4 about A is (for that punter) a good bet.
But the horse with the best chance of winning is not always the best bet. If looking at a different 4 horse race the punter believes horse B has three quarters the chance of A. Horse C has half of A and two thirds the chance of B. Horse D has just a quarter the chance of A, one third of B and half of C. Also that A + D’s chance is equal to B + C and that B + D is equal to A and C + D is equal to B… Then he would believe (only way the above works out is)…
A has a 40% chance of winning.
B 30%
C 20%
D 10%
Because 40 + 30 + 20 + 10 = 100%40% = fair odds of 6/4 because at level stakes a punter needs to win 40% of his 6/4 bets to break even.
30% = a fair 9/4
20% fair 4/1
10% fair 9/1…Therefore, when the punter then looks at bookmakers odds and finds the best prices available are:
A 5/4
B 2/1
C 100/30
D 14/1At level stakes a 40% strike rate of a punter’s 5/4 bets would end up making a loss. So too would a 30% strike rate on his/her 2/1 shots and 20% SR for 100/30…
But a 10% strike rate on his/her 14/1 shots would show a massive profit and therefore despite it having – even in the punter’s own mind – the worst chance of winning, D @ 14/1 is a bloody good bet!Of course the vast majority of punters will not know form well enough to make a profit… And even many that do know the form book exceptionally well find it impossible to evaluate form in to chance… ie Even when knowing the form book, a punter is only halfway there. A punter needs also to be good at evaluating form into chance… But there are some punters who can do both.
…And if still believing “You can beat a race, but you can’t beat the races.” ie if still believing it impossible to make an overall profit on the races, Turkoman; answer me this:
When it is possible for the bookmaker to work races out like this, why is it impossible for the punter?
Value Is EverythingWere you not “helped” fiftyP?
The Investor was quite specific about what he wanted.
Not sure what “making an online course for horse betting” actually means?
Value Is EverythingWith that sort of attitude am not surprised people don’t want to help.
By “making an online course for horse betting”
Do you mean punters should need to learn about Racing / Betting on a course and pass a test in order to be allowed to bet?
Or a voluntary course?
Do you want a course so you yourself can learn about Racing?
Or do you want to set up a course yourself – ie for the benefit of others?
Or all the above?
What’s wrong with googling anyway?
Value Is EverythingBlackcountry Kid makes some good points. I have the Clive Holt books (in the same shed that the Superform annnuals are in!) and some of his ideas are useful especially the “Proven/Progressive/Promising” categorisation but I think once you have a basic grasp of the key factors that determine the outcome of races you still have an uphill struggle to get ahead.
Most of us can probably identify plenty of winners but making a profit from doing that is another matter entirely.
I’ve always been attracted by Gingertipster’s maxim that “it’s your opinion against the odds compiler’s opinion” but unless you put in as much work as people whose full time job it is you’re on a sticky wicket and for most of us it’s just not feasible. A shame really
Yes, it is necessary to put in as much work as an odds compiler on any race the punter is looking to have a bet in, Salut. Personally don’t see how anyone can expect to make a profit unless having as much knowledge on each race as odds compilers…
However, an odds compiler has less time on one race than you might imagine. Needing to work out many many races and has no choice which races either. Where as us punters can choose both how many and which races to work out (which races suit the particular punter). So it is far from impossible for a punter to have as much or more knowledge on any chosen race/s than an odds compiler. I’d seldom work out more than four races a day and nowhere near every day either. If on limited time then one race is enough. At first it will take longer. But – with specialisation comes an overall knowledge of the horses involved and getting used to what to look out for – the time per race is reduced significantly. Most races I work out can be done in less than half an hour, seldom more than one hour.
Value Is Everything
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