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Where to specialize?

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Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 93 total)
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  • #1561014
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1799

    I have yet to meet the bookmaker who will pay you increased winnings because you demonstrated how bloody clever you think you are in a debate on a forum.

    Anything worth knowing in the betting game is definitely worth NOT sharing.

    https://m.facebook.com/pages/category/Personal-Blog/The-Point-to-Point-NH-Flat-racing-punter-105339604816039/

    #1561016
    GSP
    Participant
    • Total Posts 127

    Be interesting if anyone on here has had an account deleted or not able to bet because they are ‘too darn good’.

    #1561017
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1400

    deleted

    #1561025
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1799

    GSP,

    I have had circa a dozen accounts restricted or closed and I don’t even consider myself THAT good at the game.

    None of the (far better than me) full-time professionals I know can get any bet on with any bookmaker and all have to use Betfair.

    https://m.facebook.com/pages/category/Personal-Blog/The-Point-to-Point-NH-Flat-racing-punter-105339604816039/

    #1561033
    GSP
    Participant
    • Total Posts 127

    Consider that a sign of success ID!

    Pretty short sighted by the bookies. Even the ‘good’ professionals must have off days/weeks/months.

    #1561045
    Red Rum 77
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2229

    I’d say pay attention to what connections of the horse has said about the horse after the race. Make notes about any trainer whom has a preference for a certain race, especially if it’s an unusual target. But the best advice is to visit the racetrack and take notes on which horses take your fancy at the parade ring.

    A workmate of my late dad specialized in 2 year old races, but not nurseries.

    #1561056
    Salut A Toi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 106

    The massive appeal of racing is that the factors are extremely hard to weigh up perfectly.

    Spot on again and I would add that an added attraction is that, by the same token, it is comparatively easy to weigh up the factors fairly accurately so we all think we’ve got a chance but in reality most fall short for the reasons Richard88 outlines.

    #1561072
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27751

    Can confirm Ian is right GSP. Doesn’t take much for bookmakers to either restrict or close accounts.
    Stan James (now Unibet) were the first bookmaker to close my betting account. Many years later I was asked to be on a West Berkshire Racing Club panel at their 2011 Grand National Preview… And sat next to Stan James then rep. In the half-time break I asked him why Stan James closed accounts when I considered myself not up by much? He told me they weren’t any different to other bookmakers. If any account beats SP by an average of more than 20% it’s likely to be closed; no matter how little (if anything) the person is in profit. ie If beating SP by an average of over 20% the bookmaker knows that punter will be successful – that is, not profitable for Stan James – in the future.

    Nowadays, I think bookmakers are more likely to restrict the account (than close it entirely). So as it is (at least for any serious investor) not worth using. Presumably so their records don’t officially show many accounts closed… And if a successful punter does use a restricted account it tips off that bookie which horse/s they’ve over-priced. Allowing them to shorten odds before much money is lost.

    value is everything
    #1561088
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1400

    Boylesports closed mine. Paddy power let my funds go to a “third party” (yeah right) and never compensated

    #1561089
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1400

    My luckiest account is coral which is a good multiple of initial stake but never a hint of closure. In fairness it’s hardly an earth shattering amount but enough

    #1561323
    The_Investor
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3

    Hi again everyone, wow wasn’t expecting to come back to see so many replies and more healthy discussions, thanks again. I’ll try answer all questions posed to me.

    Thanks for the lengthy post Blackcountry kid, I’ll see if I can pick up thoose books you mention. Sometimes I dare say the simplest advice is sometimes the best and working out which are the better horses in the race as always got to be at the front of your mind.

    In response to Salut A Toi and clivexx, I think the need for me to diversify comes from wanting a new challenge. That and I feel like perhaps there’s even bigger edges available on horse racing given there’s a lot of it and a lot of different things to look at. Plus football and poker is mainly a weekend/night based pursuit. A lot of horse racing takes place in the afternoon and during the week which would be a more attractive time for me to work.

    Hi GSP, I do make a full time living it’s a fairly even split of my time between football and playing poker currently. From what I know so far I can only echo what you say about going, I should think
    being able to accurately identify what horses handle what surface can give you a huge advantage in this game.

    I like the angle of it’s you against the odds compiler, which is exactly what it is when it boils down to it. I think that’s where my strong inclination that you need to specialize in one particular area comes in. I feel like really zoning in and going through a small number of races very closely is the best way to go.

    I’m honestly a little surprised that there isn’t more maths and data involved in the world of horse racing. Maybe there is out there that I just don’t know about? Data Analytics is really big in almost every major sport nowadays but watching the races on television and it feels like all the analysis is largely based around intuition and a sort of loosey goosey version of what is value.

    clivexx I would wager that your discipline and patience to not have a bet is a major reason why you’ve been able to turn a profit. Sometimes the best bet is to not have a bet at all!

    sportingsam I’ve verified the best I can with the answers above. I made no hiding of a passing interest in Horse Racing and knowing the basics but without ever really studying it at length. The whole Denman v Kauto Star debate was really hyped up around the time I started getting into gambling so I think a fondness for the sport hails back to then.

    Richard88 it is a fact that most people who gamble lose. I don’t think anyone knows the exactly number but I’d guess maybe it’s only around 5% who manage to win and an even smaller who can say they earn significant sums. As far as I see it there’s only three things you need for success firstly an edge (positive expected value), secondly good bankroll management (to handle the variance) and three the correct mindset and discipline to put in the work to find the edges and stick to the staking plan.

    Red Rum 77 interesting you say pay attention to what connections say and others say to disregard it! No doubt there’s got to be some golden nuggets of information in there and I daresay I’m currently a lot better at reading people than I am horses. I’ve never actually stepped foot in a race course (definitely something I need to do one day) although I don’t think it’s a prerequisite to being a successful punter on the horses, although it’s not going to do any harm for sure. Like you say knowing what to look out for in a horse in the parade ring and how this affects their chances of winning is another avenue to gaining an edge.

    Gingertipster I kind of take it as a compliment when I get a bookmakers account restricted/closed because it shows I must be doing something right. In someway I feel it is highly unfair they can do that but I suppose they are only protecting their own business. Luckily there’s ways around that like exchanges.

    #1561389
    Salut A Toi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 106

    An interesting post The Investor and thanks for taking the time to address individually all the questions you’ve been asked.

    I take your point about diversifying but I’m not sure there is much of an edge on (UK at least) horse racing anymore. Everyone can see every race that is run, and replay it to their heart’s content. Timeform ratings are available virtually free of charge as is lifetime form for all runners including comments in running, trainer form etc etc. Every race is priced up at least the night before (trying getting on at those prices to more than buttons) and ricks on the exchanges don’t last long (and again are available to low stakes). Where’s your angle coming from if (nearly) everyone knows (nearly) everything.

    You suggest crystalizing your knowledge and specialising which is a good idea but once you’ve done that there are fewer and fewer opportunities to exploit your edge and it becomes not worth the effort.

    I can summarise the salient points of the Clive Holt book if you like = perhaps on a separate thread, although I don’t know that is within the forum rules.

    #1561484
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27751

    Where’s your angle coming from if (nearly) everyone knows (nearly) everything.

    Salut,
    Yes, but even with all that information we don’t all back the same horse; far from it. An awful lot of “everything” is useless or not worthwhile information. Indeed, useless or not worthwhile info actually makes the punter back the wrong horses. Trick is obviously to find the useful information out from all the dross.

    The Investor says he makes his own books and this is important. Not the same as punters who solely try and find a particular edge / angle.

    Once a punter is used to making his/her own 100% books the “angle” is simply just to back those the punter believes to be over-priced by the market. ie the angle / edge changes race by race and even horse by horse. Only takes one form aspect to be fractionally wrongly worked out by the market for a horse to be value / a good bet. Whether that aspect is to do with acting on the ground, racing action or staying the trip, speed / staying power; temperament, trainer form, pace in the race, track, breeding, jockeyship, recent form, past form, an improver (and at what rate improving) or on the decline etc etc. Also, the good information may well be known to most / all, but it’s how much that information affects the horse/s chance. ie How the info’ is evaluated into chance is just as (if not more) important than knowing the info’.

    In a competitive market the bookies only have a small mark up (per racehorse) above what the market believes a fair price. eg Something the market thinks of as a fair 3/1 (25%) is offered @ 11/4 (26.7%). If I believe something has a 30% chance I would want 11/4 or more to back it. 30% is only 5% difference than what the market believes (25%). Anything thought by the bookies a fair 16/1 (5.9%%) is offered @ 14/1 (6.7%)… Anything I believe a 12/1 (fair 7.7% )chance I back @ 14/1 or more. Just a 1.8% difference between my idea of the fair odds 7.7% and the market’s 5.9%… Doesn’t take much difference in working out for something to be value / a good bet. And then there’s the exchanges where the whole race can have just a 1% mark up 101% (albeit allowance should be made for commission). Each individual horse having a mark up of a fraction of that 1%.

    Therefore it should be possible to find a horse/s the 100% book punter believes to be over-priced in the vast majority of races. ie Even if a punter is working races out by using the same criteria as the bookie / market, there will be one or more form aspects that will be worked out differently enough to find value in one or more horses. Albeit for the novice 100% book compiler I’d recommend using a larger margin for error than my own (that I quote from above).

    value is everything
    #1561588
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1400

    I agree with salut to a large extent but I would say one thing Investor..

    You are going to have to specialize within a specialization. No punter can cover all uk horse racing at all levels.

    Northern flat racing and general low grade flat racing are a total no no for me as are the dreaded sprints. I can look at a card at ripon and not recognize half the trainers let alone the horses

    And going racing certainly has an edge. Not because of “whispers” but the concentration from being fully absorbed.

    Data has been done to death. There are too many factors involved. It’s a bit like lending decisions in my industry (business asset finance) which are never made purely on data in fact lenders who have depended heavily on algorithms (fi techs largely ) have been coming a cropper left right and centre

    #1561589
    clivexx
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1400

    Red rum is completely right to highlight trainers comments

    You get the usual “all trainers are at it and I know better of course” as if a weirdo in front of his laptop sitting in his week old y fronts has a better idea of the gallops and the nature of the horse than the actual person managing it day to day

    Most trainers at the senior level can’t be bothered with games with the public and tell it as it is. Many will say nothing but it’s absurd not to note a comment from a gosden or a Nichols.

    Now we will have the usual “ah yes! But remember blah blah blah” oh just **** off now

    Knowing trainers patterns and ways of communication is a major factor in selections I believe but you are going to struggle to get a grasp on that in even the medium term

Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 93 total)
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