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To me it is a simple as the trainer and jockey getting it wrong…of course they wanted to win a G1 race, they just thought they could get away with her not being fully wound up as she was the best horse in the race by a distance and Dettori rode her accordingly. Unfortunately she didn’t pick up like he thought she would and so they peddled out some rather lame excuses blaming the pacemaker for not going fast enough and O’Brien’s laughable comment of
“Often in the trial, you’re better to get beat and things not go right than win and everything go right”.
She handled softer conditions at Epsom (although the official ground description was listed as good to soft but times suggesting nearer to soft) but she has also been beaten twice on soft (by double digit distances) and as we know proper Longchamp soft ground would be a long way removed from what she encountered at Epsom…could the ground end up being too soft for her?
Guess all will be revealed around 3:10pm tomorrow…..can’t wait.
LD73, Snowfall’s defeats on soft ground was as a 2 year old when she weren’t that good whatever the ground.
100% there was some work left but it was the manner of way she ran. I only posted in case someone thinking 5/1 was Christmas and going to buy money. The demeanour of AOB after that run was something that was not seen ever before. The disappointment that was seen in the man at the box at the Curragh that day was concerning. She was supplemented based on what I said about about not having the ammo to have a craic at the ARC for a few years so rolling the dice. By all means, feel free to empty the clip.
Mike – Granted but everybody off the back of Epsom are assuming it as given that she will relish soft ground but could it simply be that she coped with it much better on the day than the rest of what is turning out to be a barely average crop of middle distance 3yr old fillies and that exaggerated the winning distance?
Connections were very worried about the ground going into Epsom and I think we can all agree that tomorrow’s conditions are going to be on another level compared to what she encountered at Epsom and there is a query for me that it could just be an issue.
Not sure where we getting the notion coolmore won’t have good horses next season. Galileo stock aren’t coming through as stood as before but they have two cracking prospects in tenebrisn and Luxembourg and a good few once raced winners with potential. There will be a drop off due to galileos not coming though but let’s wait and see how Churchill,sotsass etc do. I think the loss off deep impact is very important too as I’m sure coolmore were going to send plenty galileo mares to him.John Magnier has been preparing post galileo for a while and we have magna gracia,ten sovereigns etc progeny to come soon. I still think camelot will be a big player in the future.
France Galop said in a statement on Saturday evening: “The filly Love has been declared non-runner with a vet’s certificate after she developed a temperature during Saturday afternoon.”
Have anyone of Adayar, Alenquer, Snowfall, or Tarnawa ever raced beyond 12F with any degree of success?
If the ground is rated as “heavy”, then stamina may be a major determinant here and should favor Hurricane Lane more than any other runner; i.e. it may take a 14F-16F horse to with this 12F race.She will relish conditions LD73 imo. AOB thinks the same. The same theory will apply here that you mentioned – she will likely cope when others won’t. Which gives her a better chance of winning than if it stayed dry. Adayar looks up against it to me from a win perspective in these conditions returning from a setback missing his prep. Would be some horse if he pulls it off.
Turkoman if Hurricane Lane had too hard a race in the Leger, which some thought he did, then at some stage he will be the one running out of puff.
Alenquer 33/1 EW taken last week in Bobby’s AP competition.
With the Haggas yard on fire at the moment would love to see Alenquer take this in memory of Sea Of Class who ran so bravely in this race 3 years ago.
She would have been 6 years old this month.Alenquer has all the credentials needed to win the Arc he is beautifully bred and the soft ground will suit his style.
What an exciting race in prospect.
Good luck everyone.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Sounds like it has been lashing it down all night in Paris. One of Hugo Palmer’s staff just sent a video from the stables this morning.
https://twitter.com/pjmcculloch01/status/1444528147886714888
Was snowfall fit when she won the Yorkshire oaks ? , if so I hardly doubt she was out in the field smoking fags and eating pies before her last run , her last run was her fifth of the season and she would have doing plenty work , regarding the weather it looks like this could be a right slog today
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Snowfall showed in The Oaks she thrives in bad ground, but what is that Epsom form worth as she faces males for the first time? I’m always shy and retiring with my selections but I’m quietly confident that she’ll be the one to chase home our Leger winner.
Barely raceable ground brings the two Adlerflugs – Torquato Tasso (100/1) and Alenquer – into it and some books are paying five places each way
Hurricane Lane must start favourite now it’s going to be attritional. Some of us sitting with tidy early vouchers on him.
No St Leger winner has ever won an Arc, but Alleged had a far harder race than Dunfermline did in 1977 yet reversed the form in the Arc on what was his sixth run of the year.
Win or lose, your Uncle Ian has to be happy with 8-1 ante-post on Hurricane Lane. Throw in Snowfall and you have the reverse forecast of the gods.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Same ground as last year and rain expected to last till noon.
VERY SOFT (4.2)
23mm of rain in the last 24hrs in Paris.I backed Adayar for this immediately after the Derby and again after the King George; I honestly think that he’d be a banker had he not missed his prep race. That is the only negative; James Doyle, speaking on Luck On Sunday this morning, doesn’t believe that the ground will be an issue.
Tarnawa acts on “heavy”, but was last year’s Arc day really on heavy?… Appears to have a pointed action… And if acting on very soft ground at 1m2f, does she stay 1m4f on it? Won an excellent Breeders Cup on firm and – to me – has seemed suited by a test of speed at the longer trip. Not surprising the other three have been backed against her in the last few days.
Seems a lot more negatives for Tarnawa and not surprising the others have been backed in recent days.
Best bet is probably to lay Tarnawa.Looking good so far.
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