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can someone exlain to me how or what chance does a horse have of running in the race if it has not qualified?
Nice read Lost Soldier, but a lot of – didnt run to form, was unlucky etc in there, maybe a bit forgiving?
I think the form and manner of which Getabird won the MF is about as good as there is in regards to this.
My only bet in this was ITCF NRMB, which i am pleased about as i have been waiting for something to come out and look impressive, but have been a bit underwhelmed.
I will be backing Getabird on the day as it should surely be a bigger price?
Think he will win easy, then everyone looks at i afterwards and it seems so obvious.
Suspect it’s more one-pace than a stamina issue. When he comes under pressure he always tries but rarely finds anything.
Would agree with this. very harsh to call any horse who finishes 2nd in a national a “non stayer”.
Was on the fence before this race about his national chances given a big weight and not sure this race has answered anything in all honesty. We all know, especially given certain races this season that “haydock heavy” is quite different to any other course out there. Although well beaten 2nd, nothing else has managed to tough it out, bar the winner, who is a bit of an enigma in my eyes, so perhaps that 2nd will look pretty good in a few months time.
I dont believe WWW has just not stayed, he stopped in a matter of strides from travelling well.
Think the way the race was run and the course, i would be prepared to forgive everything in it and it wouldn’t put me off betting any of them for the national, if you fancied them before.
Only thing i felt i learnt from the race is the one horse who has proved he can travel and stay the national distance well, is the one not entered
I never understand the arguments over ratings for G1 horses. They wont be going handicapping, so really what does it matter. Ok for some in this race handicapping is clearly the way forward, but is Cue Card ever going to line up against WP in a handicap?
IMHO i think in a years time the form of this race is going to look incredible. Think WP is the real deal and hope from a selfish point of view we get to see him at Cheltenham, but understand it may be more prudent to skip it and go to Aintree.
Completely agree with Nausered, Top Notch is always going to find 1, 2 or a few too good in good G1 company. Dont get me wrong a very, very good horse indeed, but perhapsjust a touch not good enough.
In a word, no.
You have to do right by the horse and run him over his best distance. Never run scared of one horse. Look at the champion chase last year, perfect example of why you should never run scared of one other horse.
I understand if there are 5 or 6 far better horses in the race than yours, but not one, maybe 2.
If you are that ignorant that you believe they tell you the truth when saying the horse is better than ever, then withdrawing it a day later, then there is no helping you.
Quick scan of your response and it sums up exactly what i was saying, so il leave it here as i am sure we all get tired of these essay responses.
you do like to take these individual lines out and quote them dont you ginger.
care to address the issue of the constant lies they tell everyone as to the horses well-being?
and his “very next start”, which was 5 months later, as they horse clearly couldn’t come back after the run at Haydock.
anyone who can defend the position of running that particular horse in that particular betfair chase, needs their head testing. so many people harp back to him winning a gold cup as a novice, doesn’t mean every decision after is therefor right or acceptable.
TommyNag will find a thousand like-minded trolls on twitter that feel the same way as he does. One wonders how they know the Bradstocks.
For a horse that fractured its pelvis long before it ever raced, I’d say they haven’t done too badly with Coneygree, by the way.
You think running him in the betfair chase last year, after no run for a year in that complete bog at Haydock (which is arguably the worst track for Heavy ground) was a good idea?
They are still paying for that piss poor decision and will likely do so until the horse is retired.
you can suck in the “hes better than ever” lines before being withdrawn a day later if you like, but iv learnt my lesson with them.
O i do agree Judge, as i mentioned something i am particularly aware off, yet still fall into the trap. Find myself also doing it the other way round, with refusing to think a horse is a good thing when previously writing it off.
Find myself thinking that way about Might Bite. Was 100% opposing him leading up to the RSA last year and have never actually backed him. If i take my “gut feeling” out of it, the evidence is well and truly there that he is top class and a worthy fav for the Gold cup. I still wont be backing him though.
No surprise there Ham.
I really do find the Bradstocks quite unbearable and think they have somehwat ruined the horse.
I am all over American in this race, agree with the poster above, seems far too big.
Well done to everyone that was on.
Seems the writing was on the wall when he got hammered in the betting. Should really have followed the money late on, but i always feel like iv missed the boat so to speak and feel reluctant to jump on when half the price than it was 6 hours ago.
Not sure i am willing to forgive a Genie in a Bottle now. Now real excuses over trip/going and I find it far more difficult to put a line through 2 runs as opposed to one.
Just taken 8/1 top 3, as i am a stupid greedy barsteward, so think it is now nailed on to finish 4th for you
I think a lot of losing punters just simply fail to be honest with themselves.
Once you get to the stage of being able to understand a race and being able to make your own mind up, it can be hard to accept that you have simply picked the wrong horse if your horse losses by a distance. The amount of times I see friends and others on message boards who keep backing the same horse because they feel it owes them. People have been following horses off cliffs ever since i got into racing some 35 years ago.
Have to admit i still fall into this trap every now and again. Alpha Des Obeaux being the most recent horse, that after backing for a season and not admitting to myself i got the RSA wrong, i continued to lose on, until i finally drew a line under it before the Munster…..Which of course he went and won!
Unfortunately it is a game that cant be learned quickly and no shortcuts can be taken. I have never really been able to make it pay significantly long term, so if you can keep yourself in the plus and enjoy the sport you are doing well in my book.
Seems Strange, but I guess they are not well enough known for news to be coming out of the yard, nor would reporters be asking about these horses, giving they have bigger things to ask i guess.
Anyone able to advise if these horses have been declared for the supreme yet? What im trying to get at is if Pipe has actually entered Delirant into the supreme?
I have been waiting and waiting for DELIRANT to run over hurdles. Looked like he might have gone for the bumper last year, but was a no show. I have been keeping an eye ever since as i really liked his form over in France.
I have heard absolutely nothing since!
priced up around 33/1 at a lot of firms but yet to run from what i can see unless i am missing something.
Does anyone have any news whatsoever on this horse as im scratching my head a little?
Cant remember it word for word, but has essentially said he is a long, long way behind Might Bite.
If you dont fancy Might Bite, then you cant really fancy Whisper. only really if you think Might Bite is the next coming, could you feel confident about E/W money on Whisper.
All according to Hendo’s comments of course…
Whisper is far more a stayer than his stable companion, am sure Might Bite is going much the better of the pair on the gallops… And Might Bite has finished in front of Whisper on the track too; obvious who has the best chance… And that’s all Henderson is going on. So yes – stands to reason Henderson is much more hopeful for Might Bite. But he doesn’t look at the race from the point of view of a punter wanting to back at a value price.
What do you mean by “fancy”, Tommy?
Might Bite is currently 6/4, for Might Bite to be thought value @ 6/4 a punter needs to believe it has a better than 40% chance of winning.
Whisper is currently 9/1, for Whisper to be thought value @ 9/1 a punter needs only to believe it has a better than 10% chance of winning.
It is perfectly possible to believe Might Bite has a much better chance than Whisper and yet also believe Whisper is a value bet and not Might Bite. ie I believe Might Bite has currently got around a 36% chance (fair odds 7/4) so is imo poor value @ 6/4. I believe Whisper has around a 13% chance (fair odds 13/2) so is imo value @ 9/1.I am saying if you dont think Might Bite will win, then you have no chance with Whisper (according to hendo’s comments). Im not talking anything about value
You honestly give Whisper a 13% chance of winning? I wouldnt back him with stolen money.
