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Well, Frodon is better at 2m 5f than at 3m, Steve, but your point is why I said Might Bite may be 10 better than his RPR.
It’s not just Might Bite though. Frodon is the equal of a Gold Cup winner Sizing John, for winning a Grade 3 Handicap.
He’s seven ahead of Yorkhill, who some clearly regard highly.
Even if we say Might Bite is ten pounds his better, we are getting into all time great territory with the figures as 183, which would not quite match the absurd figure for Bristol De Mai on 185.
Anyone truly believing Bristol De Mai is 12 lbs better than Might Bite and Sizing John needs a trip to planet reality. Frodon on 173 is 19 lbs above his previous official rating. That’s nonsense in my mind.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have to agree with you Steve!!
I actually backed Frodon yesterday on the premis that he didn’t truly stay three miles last time and it was impressive but that rating is insane!!Connections reported that their first thought was that Bristol De Mai may not be a Gold Cup horse but they will wait and see, with the Grand National a possible instead.
Anyone fancy Bristol De Mai in a National off a likely high weight?
Anyway, I see that Timeform’s Simon Rowlands has noted that The Cotswold Chase was not run over the advertised distance yesterday. He reported that Definitely Red’s speed figure initially looked a good one but it was based on a distance 120 yards further than they actually ran, which obviously lessens the actual achievement.
Simon went on to summarise Definitely Red’s performance thus:-
Whatever distance the big race was run over, it turned into a real slog, and anyone inspired/stupid/misled enough to have backed Definitly Red for the Cheltenham Gold Cup should be hoping for plenty of rain and plenty of pace (and perhaps some helpful rail movements) on the day.
His words, not mine.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You are getting into a tangle with OR and RPR, Steve and Raymo. RPRs tend to be 7-10 higher than ORs. RPRs measure the performance while ORs are a kind of Master Rating (there is a thread ‘Official Rating’ in the ‘Horse Racing’ forum at the moment which is pertinent).
So to get into all-time great territory we are looking at RPRs in the mid-190s.
I think the 185 and 173 RPRs for those particular respective performances of BDM and Frodon are fair enough.
I can’t see BDM replicating anything like that in the conditions likely to prevail in the GC. Apart from the weight, the going and not jumping well enough on it are likely to count against him in the GN. What NTD should be saying is: “virtually all my horses are running like goats at the moment, I hope my stable returns to form for the Festival and I’ll be doing a rain dance.”
I can see Might Bite performing well enough to earn a RPR in the low 180s in the GC, I don’t think anything else in the field is capable of doing that. Frodon has a good chance in the Ryanair.
I pay very little heed to speed figures and have little respect for Timeform (they who rated two horses from the same stable at the same time, Arkle and Flyingbolt, about 20 ahead of any beast who has ever lived and did so in a weak decade for chasing!). DR handles any ground and has a fair E/W chance in the GC.
The first observation is that, not only is Yorkhill not going to be running, he’s the lowest rated of them all. Tempers got flared about my assessment of the horse on another thread, but he’s just not got the form in the book so far.
Yorkhill has had one race outside novice company.
RPRs after final run as novice:
Yorkhill 165
Coney Island 160
Might Bite 170Coney Island and Might bite had rather easy introductions to open company…Coney Island has enhanced his RPR due to this, and obviously so has MB.
The fact R2R was all out to beat Yorkhill jumping violently left the whole way and is now 169 probably indicates Yorkhill has a fair chance of improving on his RPR.
Add to that Top Notch- 171 since, Disko 170, Politologue 170….
Fair to say his novice form is well and truly in the book?
Anyway, he won’t go here, and i very much look forward to him over 2 miles or 2 mile 5…. will be interesting to see how it plays out, Ruby wont want UDS and Yorkhill facing off in the Ryanair…yet Douvan (Unlikely runner iMO) Min and Yorkhill might prove another tough decision!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Golden Miller:
I agree with you about Timeform, especially about the Arkle rating. Won 3 Gold Cups and faced a total of 10 runners…… People should accept that time isn’t standing still and that other decent trainers and animals/athletes are around.
About the RPR: I also think that it can vary a lot more from race to race, while the OR – since it represents the horses’ official handicap mark – is one which is altered “more carefully”.
Nevertheless, if I’d could get 25s EW on DR, I’d surely take them.
Someone once said on the forum that you can subtract a certain figure from the Racing Post Figure to get the official rating. A quick try of that method soon proved that you cannot do that. The variations are such that no method exists for converting one to the other. They are incompatible.
Frodon is on the same rating as Might Bite with the Racing Post. The Racing Post are therefore saying that Frodon’s best run is equal to that of Might Bite. Yet Frodon has been handed a rating 11 pounds higher than he had ever achieved before and 13 lbs higher than when the two clashed previously. These are on the same rating system, so nothing at all to do with any variation from another ratings compiler.
Might Bite has run to 173 twice, 171 and 170 on his last four starts. Which are we likely to believe is actually a 173 rated horse? Despite being younger, Frodon has more Racing under his belt than the Gold Cup favourite and a sudden 11 lbs rise on his 15th start in a Chase and 23rd race overall looks a bit unlikely to my eyes.
As for all-time greats, I consider Denman an all time great, he did things Bristol De Mai will probably never do and he had an excellent stretch of wins consistently up until his latter days. He didn’t get into the mid 190’s with the Racing Post Ratings, he didn’t even get into the 190’s at all. His best ever RPR was 184, a pound lower than Bristol De Mai.
These silly ratings are an insult to the proper top class horses of the past but they dish them out like smarties to some horses because they win half the track in conditions akin to equine swimming.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really do find the Bradstocks quite unbearable and think they have somehwat ruined the horse.
TommyNag will find a thousand like-minded trolls on twitter that feel the same way as he does. One wonders how they know the Bradstocks.
For a horse that fractured its pelvis long before it ever raced, I’d say they haven’t done too badly with Coneygree, by the way.
TommyNag will find a thousand like-minded trolls on twitter that feel the same way as he does. One wonders how they know the Bradstocks.
For a horse that fractured its pelvis long before it ever raced, I’d say they haven’t done too badly with Coneygree, by the way.
You think running him in the betfair chase last year, after no run for a year in that complete bog at Haydock (which is arguably the worst track for Heavy ground) was a good idea?
They are still paying for that piss poor decision and will likely do so until the horse is retired.
you can suck in the “hes better than ever” lines before being withdrawn a day later if you like, but iv learnt my lesson with them.
I had a trawl through the Racing Post Ratings to see where Bristol De Mai’s 185 rating leaves him compared to Champions of the past.
The first alarm bell to go off was that the mark obtained was three pounds higher than Moscow Flyer EVER achieved on Racing Post figures.
Bristol De Mai is just one pound short of Masterminded and is higher than every other run Mastermined ever had.
Desert Orchid’s best ever figure was 189, for beating Delius 8 lengths while carrying 12st 3lb. Desert Orchid once tied Bristol De Mai on 185 for beating the grand sort Pegwell Bay. Other than those two occasions, Bristol De Mai has Dessie beat in every race the other grey ever won.
I rest my case with the evidence at hand on horses who were winning machines in comparison with the incumbent top rated in the land. The Twiston-Davies horse has a very disappointing 7/18 record for a young chaser with such a lofty rating.
ps The Racing Post compiler must be admitting to his mistake and has knocked 3 lbs off Bristol De Mai’s Betfair rating. A way to go yet but the admission of error is a start at least.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dear oh dear, Tommy.
Bradstocks have done very well with Coneygree considering his injuries.
It wasn’t as if the horse was beaten out of sight in the Betfair. Had Cue Card not been in the race then Coneygree would’ve been an easy winner. Not only that… Coneygree also has a very good record after long lay offs. Second in the Betfair was just as good a performance as when he won a listed race on reappearance the previous year.For goodness sake, look at the horse’s overall career – it’s been one of good runs and injury practically throughout – with only one uninterupted season. So to believe “They are still paying for that piss poor decision” running him in the Betfair – is crazy. Obvious Coneygree should run in the big races whenever possible/whenever sound; because he’s difficult to keep sound. ie If going for an easier race they run a significant risk of injury ruling him out of bigger races…
Coneygree came right back to form on his very next start after the Betfair, anyway – finishing only just over 1 1/2 lengths behind the Gold Cup winner Sizing John at Punchestown. That third place being rated by Timeform as just 1 lb inferior to Coneygree’s Gold Cup performance! So to blame Coneygree’s latter career on connections running in the Betfair Chase is illogical.
Am sure a lot of people would’ve also been slating the Bradstocks for their “piss poor decision” of going for a certain considerably harder race called the Gold Cup as a novice… had he not actually won it.
Value Is Everythingyou do like to take these individual lines out and quote them dont you ginger.
care to address the issue of the constant lies they tell everyone as to the horses well-being?
and his “very next start”, which was 5 months later, as they horse clearly couldn’t come back after the run at Haydock.
anyone who can defend the position of running that particular horse in that particular betfair chase, needs their head testing. so many people harp back to him winning a gold cup as a novice, doesn’t mean every decision after is therefor right or acceptable.
agree @stevecaution Bristol De Mai being compared to some of the greats of the game is crazy.
RPRs dont have inflate some performances.
Whilst i wont take it away from him that on heavy he takes some stopping, when the ground gets any better than that he really isn’t anything out of the ordinary….and quickly becomes a 160 chaser if hes lucky. He cant jump at the speed they go on better ground.
Not a bad horse to own of course but these ratings do annoy me a bit!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I personally feel that some spend too much time speculating and studying ratings rather than looking at what a horse actually does on the racetrack.
Surely the rating IS “what a horse actually does on the racetrack”, Charles?
The rating is always a personal opinion, telling how good a performance he/she believes a horse put up.
ie Impossible to tell how good a horse is without looking at “form” (what it actually does on the racetrack) to see what it should (in their opinion) be rated. Otherwise it is very easy to either over or under estimate what a horse has done. Not that it is always easy. eg When all runners in a race bar the winner are way below form – ie imo Betfair Chase. Racing Post’s BDM rating always looked extremely suspect to the vast majority of us (not just Steve).Value Is Everything
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