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Am away but logging in on my phone to say I obviously got BDM badly wrong after Haydock. He looked today to have reverted to his old habits of one early error throwing him. That had been characteristic of his chasing career right to the end of last season. Oddly, he looked to be hating the ground today…most disappointing.
Very well done DR supporters. He was impressive and if that race didn’t have such an awful record in producing GC winners I’d be interested at 20/1.
Jacob did try and get BDM onto the front end several times but when doing so he jumped badly and lost ground.
He’s just a flat track bully, simple as that for me.
Remembering how gruelling this race was last year and it’s sad outcome, have to congratulate all Definitely Red backers, he’s one tough cookie, American also ran a brilliant race.
No excuses for Bristol De Mai his Gold Cup hopes now in tatters, like my AP slip
but guessing his owners might still want to run him and a big price will be on offer, who knows what might happen if he still didn’t run to his best today.. 
signed Jac
The Eternal Optimist ..LOLThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Aiming him at the national sounds like suicide, dont get it myself.
Dont get the point of the entry.
DR is improving but can’t see him winning GC. American blew up then ran on again, it was effectively his seasonal debut. BDM best avoided unless flat, LH track on Heavy. Don’t think he’s averse to Cheltenham though and had his ground but, Wholestone apart, all 8 other NTD runners today were poor. Stable is out of form (even out of form yards have the odd one run ok) so BDM well below best and not jump well because not feeling his best.
The 185 RPR for Haydock was fair enough. My prediction of the RPRs that will be awarded for today: DR 170, BDM 160, American 158.
Had the race been over a mile further TLS would have won and got an RPR of 166-170.
I don’t think that race has much relevance towards the Gold Cup, but I was really happy to see a big race winner for Danny Cook. I think he is one of the top 10 jockeys in the UK at the moment.
Thought DR was pretty impressive personally and must have a squeak of at least running into a place in the Gold Cup..
I know the record of winners in this race ain’t the best but thought he won with a fair bit to spare…seems to have got over the problems where he seemed prone to throwing in a race ending mistake…on the whole he’s jumped much better the last twice. He jumped the last two today like a fresh horse!
We know he stays and will have no problem coming up that hill. If Minella Rocco was good enough to place last year I don’t see why DR isn’t this year?
Wide open is the gold cup this year with genuine question marks over many of the leading contenders…this fella goes there off the back of a career best.
I took 13/2 in the morning with the thinking Red would be backed into 4/1 second favourite. I couldn’t believe he went off at 7/1 but once again I imagine it’s down to the ‘northern factor’.
I don’t think it can be said enough just how good a result this was for racing. You cannot just have all the best horses trained south of Birmingham. The sport needs there to be more strength in the north and now hopefully owners might start to see how the likes of Brian Ellison, Malcolm, Jefferson, Donald McCain and Sue Smith can train top class horses and they’ll receive more ammunition.
As for his Gold Cup prospects. Well I remember after Red won at Doncaster this time last year Brian Ellison went around telling anyone and everyone how he feels he has a genuine Gold Cup horse on his hand (one of the reasons I backed him). He’s not ground dependent, acts round Cheltenham and will have had the perfect lead-up campaign. He was impressive yesterday and I’d rather back him than Road To Respect.
As already stated, he ran a hell of a race yesterday and looked foot perfect as well.
On the other hand what did he beat?
Who is American after all? He is not even top 20 in Britain over 3 miles. Just won a novice handicap chase at Uttoxeter beating a horse rated in the mid 140s. He was very poor in the Ladbrokes (Ex- Hennessy) and was beaten fair and square yesterday. The Last Samuri seemed to be outpaced throughout the race and never liked the turns and changes of speed at Cheltenham. And apart from them the rest didn’t really count. Bristol De Mai is not one to be confident in at all. He needs to be able to dominate, to get his ground and run at a less demanding track.A solid performance by the winner and well done to Danny Cook and to the very shrewd Brian Ellison, but he shouldn’t be the winner of the GC 2018.
My prediction of the RPRs that will be awarded for today: DR 170, BDM 160, American 158.
RPRs are out: DR 171, BDM 161, American 159. I’m losing my touch!
Interesting to compare the Racing Post Ratings against the current Gold Cup odds of the runners.
From the top of the betting downwards the RPR for each horse follows the current price of each runner:-
Might Bite 7/2 (173)
Sizing John 7/1 (173)
Coney Island 10/1 (167)
Native River 10/1 (172)
Thistlecrack 10/1 (174)
Our Duke 11/1 (172)
Road To Respect 12/1 (169)
Yorkhill 14/1 (166)
Minella Rocco 20/1 (170)Those are the leading lights up to 20/1 odds.
The first observation is that, not only is Yorkhill not going to be running, he’s the lowest rated of them all. Tempers got flared about my assessment of the horse on another thread, but he’s just not got the form in the book so far.
Definitely Red is now rated 171 by the Racing Post and that’s right up there in a tightly packed set of ratings. In addition, Thistlecrack and Sizing John have questions, as does Our Duke.
Definitely Red is 40/1 and on the face of RPR’s that seems big. The trouble is that the Cotswold looked an odd race and on heavy ground to boot. Tea For Two ran a shocker and the second and third came in after poor efforts previously. The single biggest worry for me is that the RPR of 171 just looks too high to me. I have Definitely Red on 162 myself.
It will be interesting to see where the Official Handicapper goes with him. I feel it may be risky to trust the Cotswold race myself.
There is no doubt it is an open Gold Cup, with loads of question marks though. Come the day of the race it may be no harm to be sitting with a ticket saying Definitely Red 40/1 £5 win.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s an incredibly open renewal, Steve. Personally, I think Might Bite may prove to be 10 better than his RPR. I also quite like Road To Respect at the moment. However, were they all to run to those RPRs and, by some miracle, Coneygree returns to his best he is 50/1!
I personally feel that some spend too much time speculating and studying ratings rather than looking at what a horse actually does on the racetrack.
I personally feel that some spend too much time speculating and studying ratings rather than looking at what a horse actually does on the racetrack.
I can’t speak for others Charles but I just use the ratings as a ball park guide to aid overall analysis.
If a horse looks good but has two stones to find on the ratings, then it’s a mighty ask no matter how progressive (for example)
In jump races in particular, I would say it is folly to expect any race to work out to the ratings figures. There are so many varying factors that it would be impossible for a horse to run to the same figure all the time.
For me, it’s a question of weighing up how many factors a horse has in its favour on the day and weeding out ones that look poor value because they still have aspects to fully prove.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thistlecrack is out for the season
I was using Paddy Power’s book Mark. They still have Thistlecrack and Yorkhill in their betting. That’s poor crack, rather than Thistlecrack.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interestingly, the Racing Post gave Frodon 173 for his win yesterday. Not only is that two higher than Definitely Red, it’s the same mark as Might Bite with them now.
When Might Bite beat Frodon, the Nicholls horse was rated 160 on RPRs. Isn’t it a bit silly to now be saying they are equal, given than one horse won the King George and the other was beaten twice before landing a grade 3 handicap?
Some of these Racing Post ratings look highly dubious to me and very little thought seems to have been given to perspective.
What odds on Frodon for the Gold Cup, given he’s joint top rated on RPR figures?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
but guessing his owners might still want to run him and a big price will be on offer, who knows what might happen if he still didn’t run to his best today.. 
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